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Author Topic: France 2012: Official Results Thread  (Read 30670 times)
homelycooking
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« Reply #425 on: April 25, 2012, 08:57:10 am »
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If anybody is interested, given that I have five days off, I can throw some constituency maps for each candidate together.

You thought we'd say, "No, Hash, don't bother"? Grin

I look forward to it (and I'll have a nice map of my own to post soon...)
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« Reply #426 on: April 25, 2012, 08:58:20 am »
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What's up with Sarkozy doing better among women? Am I the only one that finds that strange, never heard of a country before where the right didn't do better among men and the left better among women? Is it a common thing in France, and in that case are there any know demographic reasons for it?

If anybody is interested, given that I have five days off, I can throw some constituency maps for each candidate together.

Yeah that'd be very itresting to see.
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« Reply #427 on: April 25, 2012, 09:09:31 am »
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never heard of a country before where the right didn't do better among men and the left better among women?

The UK (traditionally).
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Scottish Robb Stark
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« Reply #428 on: April 25, 2012, 09:31:29 am »
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What's up with Sarkozy doing better among women? Am I the only one that finds that strange, never heard of a country before where the right didn't do better among men and the left better among women? Is it a common thing in France, and in that case are there any know demographic reasons for it?

In France, there hasn't been a significant difference since the 1980s (before, the right was stronger among women). The only notable difference is that extremist parties are weaker among women.
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« Reply #429 on: April 25, 2012, 09:47:16 am »
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If anybody is interested, given that I have five days off, I can throw some constituency maps for each candidate together.

Oh yeah !

And please free the Official Thread now Wink
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« Reply #430 on: April 25, 2012, 09:53:46 am »
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never heard of a country before where the right didn't do better among men and the left better among women?

The UK (traditionally).

Took the words right out my mouth! I'm sure there are other examples as well.
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« Reply #431 on: April 25, 2012, 11:28:43 am »
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Im sure Royal did better among women, no?
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« Reply #432 on: April 25, 2012, 11:36:44 am »
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I thought the rule of thumb was that in historically Catholic countries right leaning parties did better with women than men.  IIRC the left was against women's suffrage in France the right for it in the years before its final adoption.
     One stat among the vote intentions of the losing candidates says it all.  Melenchons voters are going 91 to 2 for Hollande, only 7% abstentions.  That kind of near unanimous left wing unity can't be good for Sarko.
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« Reply #433 on: April 25, 2012, 11:39:06 am »
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Im sure Royal did better among women, no?

Yepp:

http://www.ipsos.fr/ipsos-public-affairs/sondages/2nd-tour-presidentielle-2007-comprendre-vote-francais#2
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« Reply #434 on: April 25, 2012, 11:41:03 am »
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I thought the rule of thumb was that in historically Catholic countries right leaning parties did better with women than men.  IIRC the left was against women's suffrage in France the right for it in the years before its final adoption.
     One stat among the vote intentions of the losing candidates says it all.  Melenchons voters are going 91 to 2 for Hollande, only 7% abstentions.  That kind of near unanimous left wing unity can't be good for Sarko.

Not in Austria, which can be considered a Catholic country. Here. the FPÖ has the most support among young men, while young women mostly vote Green. In general, if you combine ÖVP/FPÖ/BZÖ about 60% of men vote for them while only 55% of women vote for them.
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« Reply #435 on: April 25, 2012, 12:09:38 pm »
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Also, look at the voting by class. National Front does best among the working class(ouvrier), but steadily declines as you move up the income ladder... until you reach the upperclass(artisan, commercant, chef d'enterprise), where NF registers it's second best performance.

Also notably the upperclass registers 0% support for minor parties. And the fact that Bayrou does badly among them... I'd have thought he's precisely the kind of socially liberal establishmentarian that would appeal to them.
The self-employed are not, primarily, upperclass people. Especially not by attitude.
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« Reply #436 on: April 25, 2012, 12:13:21 pm »

The artisans, commercants category is way more of a petite bourgeoisie than an affluent liberal European upper/upper-middle class. The ones who come closest to such an attitude are the cadres/professions liberales.
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« Reply #437 on: April 25, 2012, 12:19:26 pm »
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never heard of a country before where the right didn't do better among men and the left better among women?

The UK (traditionally).

Took the words right out my mouth! I'm sure there are other examples as well.

I find it weird also...in Canada we certainly see the NDP and Liberals doing much better with women and the Tories are definitely the men's party (esp. old men). It makes sense that woman would tend to favour parties on the left - women are much more likely to work in the public sector (ie: nurses, teachers, civil servants), they tend to be much more concerned with proper funding of education and health care and social services etc... and woman tend not to like militaristic "law and order" rhetoric from rightwing parties...

It actually surprises me that in the UK and France the gender gap is as narrow as it is - in the UK in particular i would have thought that woman would be disproptionately hit by all the draconians cuts to social programs by the Cameron government

Any explanation?
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« Reply #438 on: April 25, 2012, 12:26:27 pm »
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It takes a very shallow political divide to create a sizable gender gap, as where the differences are starker, families tend to vote for the same camp.
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« Reply #439 on: April 25, 2012, 01:00:16 pm »
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Utterly random observations:

Hollande won the Marquesas. The patterns in Polynesia cannot, I think, be explained by racial polarization, with Tahiti not voting far different from the remainder (though Le Pen is stronger and Hollande weaker). Nor does there seem to be a turnout gap. Huge random variations between one atoll and the next.

Somewhere early in this thread someone mentioned that Joly won a tiny village (Trémargat) in inland Cote d'Armor - she did so with 29%, with Mélenchon second on 27%. And the next village to the north (Peumerit-Quintin), she tied Hollande and Le Pen with 20 votes each out of 102, with Mélenchon on 19. What the hell is that?

Also, what's with Mélenchon's strength in the Alpes d'Haute Provence, mostly the tiny villages. I never had that down as a Commie stronghold.
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« Reply #440 on: April 25, 2012, 01:39:04 pm »
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Somewhere early in this thread someone mentioned that Joly won a tiny village (Trémargat) in inland Cote d'Armor - she did so with 29%, with Mélenchon second on 27%. And the next village to the north (Peumerit-Quintin), she tied Hollande and Le Pen with 20 votes each out of 102, with Mélenchon on 19. What the hell is that?

Hippies.

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« Reply #441 on: April 25, 2012, 01:44:55 pm »

Tremargat seems to be a hippie commune. Significantly younger than surrounding areas, a bit more educated and Wikipedia describes it as having all that eco-friendly stuff associated with ruralish hippie communes. According to Google searches, there's also some recreational park nearby (http://www.loisirs-tremargat.com/). It seems to have been voting Green for quite sometime: Voynet in 1995 (23%), Mamere (29.7% + 13.2% for Lepage), 2004 regionals (38%), 2009 (51.9%) and 2010 (58.8%). And Bove got 26.5% there in 2007. It's part of a neo-rural phenomenon which, afaik, explains the tendency for there to be a lot of Green-voting communes in the Drome and Ardeche.
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« Reply #442 on: April 25, 2012, 01:51:42 pm »
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Drome? Ardèche? Hadn't looked at those yet.

Holy shmoking cojones.

Vachères en Quint: Mélenchon 53%, Joly 21%, Arthaud 5%. Out of 19 voters, mind - Hollande is on 0. Smiley (3 votes for Sarko and 1 for Bayrou).

Or, Saint Andéol: Mélenchon 31%, Le Pen 20%, Joly 16%. Out of 45 votes this time.

And yeah, there's one for Joly: Rioms. 18 votes. Joly 8, Mélenchon 6, Poutou 2, Sarkozy 1, Bayrou 1.

Smaller than the Breton places, of course, which being Breton are real villages with over a hundred votes still.
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« Reply #443 on: April 25, 2012, 01:54:01 pm »

Well, in the 2010 regionals and obviously the 2009 Euros, there are a ton of Green-voting municipalities in the Drome and Ardeche.
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« Reply #444 on: April 25, 2012, 01:58:01 pm »
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Well, in the 2010 regionals and obviously the 2009 Euros, there are a ton of Green-voting municipalities in the Drome and Ardeche.
One would figure. Mélenchon got a lot of those votes this time round.
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« Reply #445 on: April 25, 2012, 02:04:13 pm »
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never heard of a country before where the right didn't do better among men and the left better among women?

The UK (traditionally).

Took the words right out my mouth! I'm sure there are other examples as well.

I find it weird also...in Canada we certainly see the NDP and Liberals doing much better with women and the Tories are definitely the men's party (esp. old men). It makes sense that woman would tend to favour parties on the left - women are much more likely to work in the public sector (ie: nurses, teachers, civil servants), they tend to be much more concerned with proper funding of education and health care and social services etc... and woman tend not to like militaristic "law and order" rhetoric from rightwing parties...

It actually surprises me that in the UK and France the gender gap is as narrow as it is - in the UK in particular i would have thought that woman would be disproptionately hit by all the draconians cuts to social programs by the Cameron government

Any explanation?

Note the "(traditionally)" in the quote - there's evidence to suggest the current government's broke the Tory leads over Labour among women.




Read more here: http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/4122
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homelycooking
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« Reply #446 on: April 25, 2012, 02:14:33 pm »
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Somewhere early in this thread someone mentioned that Joly won a tiny village (Trémargat) in inland Cote d'Armor - she did so with 29%, with Mélenchon second on 27%. And the next village to the north (Peumerit-Quintin), she tied Hollande and Le Pen with 20 votes each out of 102, with Mélenchon on 19. What the hell is that?

Hippies.

There's also the commune of Éourres in Hautes-Alpes that seems to be the French equivalent of Woodstock, NY: it voted 42% for Joly and 50% for Bové in '07. It was a Mamère-Besancenot tie in '02. The UMP vote declined from 8% to 5% over '07-'12 - but Chirac got zero votes in '02. Grin

It looks like it's the site of some sort of artist colony or commune (in the American sense)
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« Reply #447 on: April 25, 2012, 02:15:48 pm »
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Unless there's credible evidence of a consistent (and meaningful!) gender gap, 'tis best to ignore poll breakdowns that touch on the matter.
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« Reply #448 on: April 25, 2012, 02:23:41 pm »

Somewhere early in this thread someone mentioned that Joly won a tiny village (Trémargat) in inland Cote d'Armor - she did so with 29%, with Mélenchon second on 27%. And the next village to the north (Peumerit-Quintin), she tied Hollande and Le Pen with 20 votes each out of 102, with Mélenchon on 19. What the hell is that?

Hippies.

There's also the commune of Éourres in Hautes-Alpes that seems to be the French equivalent of Woodstock, NY: it voted 42% for Joly and 50% for Bové in '07. It was a Mamère-Besancenot tie in '02. The UMP vote declined from 8% to 5% over '07-'12 - but Chirac got zero votes in '02. Grin

It looks like it's the site of some sort of artist colony or commune (in the American sense)

Great find! Hadn't ever noticed that one. The profile of the town is pretty amusing: http://www.franceelectorale.com/ville/eourres-26560
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« Reply #449 on: April 25, 2012, 03:16:15 pm »
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"bastion" (I don"t remember the english word for that) of each candidate. Don't be surprised to not have a lot of blue departments : it's because the sarkozy vote is less concentrate than the others.

color key : red : mélenchon ; pink : hollande ; orange : bayrou ; blue : sarkozy ; "bonapartist green" : MLP
methodology : best % of each candidate compare to metropolitan result



right-wing departments (sarkozy, NDA, MLP)
methodology : quartile (not based on the national score level, but by division of the 96 departments in 4 quarters : in blue, the 1° to 24° best results, in light blue : the 25° to 48° best results, in pink, 49 to 72 results and in red, the worst results

(this methodology and color key is the same for all the next maps)



left-wing departments (hollande, mélenchon, arthaud, poutou, joly)


"government parties" map (hollande, bayrou, sarkozy) aka the "reasonable france map"



hollandist france


sarkozyst france


marinist france


melenchonist france (as opposite to a lot of analysis made, this map show than melenchonist vote is very near to traditionnal PCF map vote, specially Marchais 1981 vote map)



bayrou's france (the problem of bayrou is that his words of "center-center man" is in opposition with is geographic pattern : the bayrou map is the ARCHTYPE of the eternal french right map, especially in catholic areas)


Norwegian postmenopausal france


NDA france (the same as Villierist france)


arthaudist france


poutouist france (strange map, very few from chaban-delmas 1974 map -a centrist-gaullist candidate, and very few to occupate zone of france in 1940-1942)


lyndonlarouchist france


***********************************************




left vs right (this map not include bayrou and cheminade)



same map, but most affined
blue : right +10 points above total left
light blue : right, less 10 points above total left
pink : left, less 10 points above total right
red : left, +10 points above total right
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