France 2012: Official Results Thread

[Senator MaxQue]

Funny than the highest margins for Hollande in Paris suburbs, Limousin and Bretagne.
The last one is quite surprising.
Yes, I know it's swing to the left, but to that point...

[Californian Tony]

Funny than the highest margins for Hollande in Paris suburbs, Limousin and Bretagne.
The last one is quite surprising.
Yes, I know it's swing to the left, but to that point...

Looks like Bretagne is France's California.

[adma]

Yeah, Lyon has always leaned towards a certain sort of stodgy bourgeois rightwards political stance.

Sort of like Munich relative to Germany.

[Hans-im-Glück]

Yeah, Lyon has always leaned towards a certain sort of stodgy bourgeois rightwards political stance.

Sort of like Munich relative to Germany.

I think you know nothing about Munich

[Democratic Hawk]

Right, I'm assuming that Hollande will win the 'Left' vote (9-1) in the run-off, while the Le Pen vote will break for Sarkozy (5-2), with the Bayrou vote more evenly split (2-2)

Any one know if could be significant regional variation as to how the Bayrou and Le Pen votes would split between Hollande and Sarkozy?

I take it that only the debate could be a game changer

[homelycooking]

A rough map of expat results:



Hollande's top five:

Algeria 65.96%
Comoros 64.12%
Benin 60.34%
Mali 58.00%
Togo 55.67%

Sarkozy's top five:

Israel 82.74%
Libya 68.97%
Armenia 64.09%
Cote d'Ivoire 60.29%
Vanuatu 59.74%

Le Pen's top five:

South Sudan 28.57%
Latvia 25.33%
Paraguay 21.82%
Djibouti 21.47%
Monaco 18.30%

Bayrou's top five:

Mongolia 19.05%
Yemen 18.00%
Kazakhstan 17.69%
Slovakia 17.65%
Taiwan 17.57%

Melenchon's top five:

Nicaragua 26.25%
Cuba 23.87%
South Sudan 21.43%
Guatemala 20.50%
Belarus 20.00%

Joly's top five:

Iceland 22.79%
Tajikstan 20.00%
Mongolia 19.05%
Nepal 17.28%
Norway 15.03%

[crypto-fascist superhero]

I suspect that some of those foreign countries might have fiddled with the votes sent in from them (the result for Melenchon in Cuba is particularly suspicious).

[asexual trans victimologist]

We may also have to envision what sort of person a French expatriate in Cuba might be.

[crypto-fascist superhero]

We may also have to envision what sort of person a French expatriate in Cuba might be.

Fair enough, although Sarkozy's results in Libya and Armenia, and Melenchon's result in (once again Sandinista-ruled) Nicaragua also seem a little "fixed."

[Proud Lieberal from Northeast]

We may also have to envision what sort of person a French expatriate in Cuba might be.

Fair enough, although Sarkozy's results in Libya and Armenia, and Melenchon's result in (once again Sandinista-ruled) Nicaragua also seem a little "fixed."

I didn't know Daniel Ortega is supervising French presidential election abroad.

[crypto-fascist superhero]

We may also have to envision what sort of person a French expatriate in Cuba might be.

Fair enough, although Sarkozy's results in Libya and Armenia, and Melenchon's result in (once again Sandinista-ruled) Nicaragua also seem a little "fixed."

I didn't know Daniel Ortega is supervising French presidential election abroad.

It'd be trivially easy for a foreign government to commit absentee voter fraud; if they have the names and addresses of French expats they simply send requests for absentee ballots, intercept them at the post office, and fill them out themselves.  Expats in Latin America tend to be wealthy businesspeople, so a large vote for the far-left would not at all be characteristic.

[So the Heroes Fall]

So Jews vote right wing in France?

We may also have to envision what sort of person a French expatriate in Cuba might be.

Most likely living in some resort area and not much different from an American expat in Mexico. Though of course it is only 24% so I guess people seeking international solidarity can explain that.

Le Pen's numbers in South Sudan is what I find most odd since I'd believe most French living in Africa are from immigrant families who have moved back.

[Bacon King]

Weird results explained!

Libya: most French expats that have already returned to Libya are in the oil industry (Total), "private security" business - i.e., mercenaries hired by the oil companies to protect their property (Gallice Security), and French Navy personnel sent to advise the new Libyan military. These all sound like quite the conservative types. There's probably also a bit of extra support for Sarkozy because of the proactive role he played in Ghaddafi's overthrow.

Armenia: Sarkozy has made a big deal on the campaign trail about repassing his Armenian Genocide bill that the French courts overturned; probably has a lot to do with it.

Cuba: The expats who aren't good communists get kicked out, of course. But more seriously, there's probably a huge self-selection bias among those who chose to emigrate to a dramatically leftist country rather than somewhere else in the region. Same probably applies to Nicaragua.

South Sudan: Hell if I know. Total has an oil concession here that they've barely started exploring, so it's probably the oiler + private security combo of Libya without any other expat community or esteem for overthrowing Ghaddaffi.

It'd be trivially easy for a foreign government to commit absentee voter fraud; if they have the names and addresses of French expats they simply send requests for absentee ballots, intercept them at the post office, and fill them out themselves.

Not true; French election law requires that postal absentee voters place a copy of their identification card in the ballot envelope, so it'd be pretty much  impossible for some foreign government to attempt this. The international polling stations have very strict security as well, and don't even allow non-French citizens to enter the premises. Not to mention the fact, of course, that it'd be quite ridiculously stupid for a nation's government to risk a huge international incident just to cast a few hundred fraudulent ballots for another country's election.

[Californian Tony]

Only Libyans really know how much of a hero Sarkozy is !

So Jews vote right wing in France?

I don't know about Jews in general, but Israel residents must fear socialists to have pro-Palestinian tendencies (though French diplomacy regarding Palestine has hardly been different between left and right-wing governments).

[Bacon King]

Here's a pretty cool map from Wikipedia, showing winner by commune:

[Bacon King]

South Sudan: Hell if I know. Total has an oil concession here that they've barely started exploring, so it's probably the oiler + private security combo of Libya without any other expat community or esteem for overthrowing Ghaddaffi.

Okay, figured this out. Le Pen won, yes: with 4 votes out of the 14 cast. So it's really just a statistical anomaly more than anything.

[So the Heroes Fall]

How did Le Pen do in Israel?

[Senator MaxQue]

How did Le Pen do in Israel?

Israel:
Sarkozy 82.7, Hollande 7.6, Le Pen 4, Bayrou 2.8, Mélenchon 0.97, Dupont-Aignan 0.84, Joly 0.56, Poutou 0.28, Cheminade 0.15, Arthaud 0.10

Jerusalem (which is separate of Israel and includes Ramallah):
Sarkozy 75.1, Hollande 9.5, Bayrou 6.2, Le Pen 3.6, Mélenchon 2.6, Dupont-Aignan 1.2, Joly 1.2, Poutou 0.19, Cheminade 0.19, Arthaud 0.19

[big bad fab]

Hash, I was wondering...
how about a comparison between NDA 2012 and Pasqua-Villiers 1999 ?

Unfortunately, no map from Euro 1999 are available any longer on your old blog

[Stranger in a strange land]

We may also have to envision what sort of person a French expatriate in Cuba might be.

Fair enough, although Sarkozy's results in Libya and Armenia, and Melenchon's result in (once again Sandinista-ruled) Nicaragua also seem a little "fixed."

I didn't know Daniel Ortega is supervising French presidential election abroad.

It'd be trivially easy for a foreign government to commit absentee voter fraud; if they have the names and addresses of French expats they simply send requests for absentee ballots, intercept them at the post office, and fill them out themselves.  Expats in Latin America tend to be wealthy businesspeople, so a large vote for the far-left would not at all be characteristic.

Again, think about what type of French citizen lives in Cuba or Nicaragua, neither of which is friendly towards rich Western businesspeople, and that any French citizen living there would be doing so of their own accord. Also, the Libya result makes sense given Sarkozy's role in the intervention which helped overthrow Gaddafi.

[ag]

Again, think about what type of French citizen lives in Cuba or Nicaragua, neither of which is friendly towards rich Western businesspeople, and that any French citizen living there would be doing so of their own accord.

Actually, I am not sure of Nicaragua (don't have any info), but Cuba is, actually, pretty friendly for a certain kind of a European businessman. And, yes, quite a few Europeans (almost definitely French as well) do business there - with the state, much of the time, of course. Money doesn't smell, does it?

[Senator MaxQue]

Anyone has an idea of what's happening with Massif Central?
Is it going the Bretagne way, a couple of decades later?

[Vasall des Midas]

How did Le Pen do in Israel?

Israel:
Sarkozy 82.7, Hollande 7.6, Le Pen 4, Bayrou 2.8, Mélenchon 0.97, Dupont-Aignan 0.84, Joly 0.56, Poutou 0.28, Cheminade 0.15, Arthaud 0.10

Jerusalem (which is separate of Israel and includes Ramallah):
Sarkozy 75.1, Hollande 9.5, Bayrou 6.2, Le Pen 3.6, Mélenchon 2.6, Dupont-Aignan 1.2, Joly 1.2, Poutou 0.19, Cheminade 0.19, Arthaud 0.19

I was seriously wondering about why they defined things that way. Trying to refuse to either endorse or non-endorse Israeli annexation of East Jerusalem?

[danny]

I was seriously wondering about why they defined things that way. Trying to refuse to either endorse or non-endorse Israeli annexation of East Jerusalem?

France doesn't recognize any part of Jerusalem as part of Israel (including west Jerusalem), they still refer to Jerusalem as corpus separatum as it was supposed to be under the "United Nations Partition Plan for Palestine".

[Vasall des Midas]

Uh... that sounds odd. (It's not as if they don't recognize the rest of Israel's post-48 boundaries either, is it?) Though it does explain things here.