Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
September 01, 2014, 09:08:57 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  International Elections (Moderator: PASOK Leader Hashemite)
| | |-+  France 2012: Official Results Thread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 16 17 18 19 20 [21] 22 23 24 25 26 ... 37 Print
Author Topic: France 2012: Official Results Thread  (Read 31759 times)
MaxQue
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8737
Canada


View Profile
« Reply #500 on: April 28, 2012, 01:31:03 pm »
Ignore

Funny than the highest margins for Hollande in Paris suburbs, Limousin and Bretagne.
The last one is quite surprising.
Yes, I know it's swing to the left, but to that point...
Logged
Robb the Survivor
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30633
France


View Profile
« Reply #501 on: April 28, 2012, 02:14:14 pm »
Ignore

Funny than the highest margins for Hollande in Paris suburbs, Limousin and Bretagne.
The last one is quite surprising.
Yes, I know it's swing to the left, but to that point...

Looks like Bretagne is France's California. Wink
Logged



Robb of the House Stark, First of his Name, Lord of Winterfell and King in the North



Quote from: IRC
22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
adma
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 522
View Profile
« Reply #502 on: April 28, 2012, 03:38:46 pm »
Ignore

Yeah, Lyon has always leaned towards a certain sort of stodgy bourgeois rightwards political stance.

Sort of like Munich relative to Germany.
Logged
Hans-im-Glück
Franken
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8302
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -5.94, S: -3.30

View Profile
« Reply #503 on: April 29, 2012, 01:03:10 pm »
Ignore

Yeah, Lyon has always leaned towards a certain sort of stodgy bourgeois rightwards political stance.

Sort of like Munich relative to Germany.

I think you know nothing about Munich Cheesy
Logged

Democratic Hawk
LucysBeau
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14669
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #504 on: April 29, 2012, 03:17:37 pm »
Ignore

Right, I'm assuming that Hollande will win the 'Left' vote (9-1) in the run-off, while the Le Pen vote will break for Sarkozy (5-2), with the Bayrou vote more evenly split (2-2)

Any one know if could be significant regional variation as to how the Bayrou and Le Pen votes would split between Hollande and Sarkozy?

I take it that only the debate could be a game changer
Logged

Moderate Liberal Populist Smiley [Personal 45%/Economic 42%] / Defense 'Hawk'

Registered in Georgia for Fantasy Politics
homelycooking
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6080
Belize


View Profile
« Reply #505 on: April 29, 2012, 09:34:46 pm »
Ignore

A rough map of expat results:



Hollande's top five:

Algeria 65.96%
Comoros 64.12%
Benin 60.34%
Mali 58.00%
Togo 55.67%

Sarkozy's top five:

Israel 82.74%
Libya 68.97%
Armenia 64.09%
Cote d'Ivoire 60.29%
Vanuatu 59.74%

Le Pen's top five:

South Sudan 28.57%
Latvia 25.33%
Paraguay 21.82%
Djibouti 21.47%
Monaco 18.30%

Bayrou's top five:

Mongolia 19.05%
Yemen 18.00%
Kazakhstan 17.69%
Slovakia 17.65%
Taiwan 17.57%

Melenchon's top five:

Nicaragua 26.25%
Cuba 23.87%
South Sudan 21.43%
Guatemala 20.50%
Belarus 20.00%

Joly's top five:

Iceland 22.79%
Tajikstan 20.00%
Mongolia 19.05%
Nepal 17.28%
Norway 15.03%
Logged
Carlos Danger
wormyguy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8404
Liechtenstein


View Profile
« Reply #506 on: April 29, 2012, 09:40:28 pm »
Ignore

I suspect that some of those foreign countries might have fiddled with the votes sent in from them (the result for Melenchon in Cuba is particularly suspicious).
Logged

asexual trans victimologist
Nathan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12482


View Profile
« Reply #507 on: April 29, 2012, 09:48:46 pm »
Ignore

We may also have to envision what sort of person a French expatriate in Cuba might be.
Logged

A shameless agrarian collectivist with no respect for private property or individual rights.

His idea of freedom is - it is a bad thing and should be stopped at all costs.

Nathan-land.  As much fun as watching paint dry... literally.
Carlos Danger
wormyguy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8404
Liechtenstein


View Profile
« Reply #508 on: April 29, 2012, 09:52:39 pm »
Ignore

We may also have to envision what sort of person a French expatriate in Cuba might be.

Fair enough, although Sarkozy's results in Libya and Armenia, and Melenchon's result in (once again Sandinista-ruled) Nicaragua also seem a little "fixed."
Logged

Kalwejt
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 36869


View Profile
« Reply #509 on: April 29, 2012, 10:02:27 pm »
Ignore

We may also have to envision what sort of person a French expatriate in Cuba might be.

Fair enough, although Sarkozy's results in Libya and Armenia, and Melenchon's result in (once again Sandinista-ruled) Nicaragua also seem a little "fixed."

I didn't know Daniel Ortega is supervising French presidential election abroad.
Logged
Carlos Danger
wormyguy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8404
Liechtenstein


View Profile
« Reply #510 on: April 29, 2012, 10:08:07 pm »
Ignore

We may also have to envision what sort of person a French expatriate in Cuba might be.

Fair enough, although Sarkozy's results in Libya and Armenia, and Melenchon's result in (once again Sandinista-ruled) Nicaragua also seem a little "fixed."

I didn't know Daniel Ortega is supervising French presidential election abroad.

It'd be trivially easy for a foreign government to commit absentee voter fraud; if they have the names and addresses of French expats they simply send requests for absentee ballots, intercept them at the post office, and fill them out themselves.  Expats in Latin America tend to be wealthy businesspeople, so a large vote for the far-left would not at all be characteristic.
Logged

black and white band photos
BRTD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 72107
Sweden


View Profile
« Reply #511 on: April 29, 2012, 10:38:56 pm »
Ignore

So Jews vote right wing in France?

We may also have to envision what sort of person a French expatriate in Cuba might be.

Most likely living in some resort area and not much different from an American expat in Mexico. Though of course it is only 24% so I guess people seeking international solidarity can explain that.

Le Pen's numbers in South Sudan is what I find most odd since I'd believe most French living in Africa are from immigrant families who have moved back.
« Last Edit: April 29, 2012, 10:42:45 pm by All of a Sudden I Miss Everyone »Logged




01/05/2004-01/10/2014
Bacon King
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15822
United States Minor Outlying Islands


View Profile
« Reply #512 on: April 30, 2012, 12:05:40 am »
Ignore

Weird results explained!

Libya: most French expats that have already returned to Libya are in the oil industry (Total), "private security" business - i.e., mercenaries hired by the oil companies to protect their property (Gallice Security), and French Navy personnel sent to advise the new Libyan military. These all sound like quite the conservative types. There's probably also a bit of extra support for Sarkozy because of the proactive role he played in Ghaddafi's overthrow.

Armenia: Sarkozy has made a big deal on the campaign trail about repassing his Armenian Genocide bill that the French courts overturned; probably has a lot to do with it.

Cuba: The expats who aren't good communists get kicked out, of course. But more seriously, there's probably a huge self-selection bias among those who chose to emigrate to a dramatically leftist country rather than somewhere else in the region. Same probably applies to Nicaragua.

South Sudan: Hell if I know. Total has an oil concession here that they've barely started exploring, so it's probably the oiler + private security combo of Libya without any other expat community or esteem for overthrowing Ghaddaffi.

It'd be trivially easy for a foreign government to commit absentee voter fraud; if they have the names and addresses of French expats they simply send requests for absentee ballots, intercept them at the post office, and fill them out themselves.

Not true; French election law requires that postal absentee voters place a copy of their identification card in the ballot envelope, so it'd be pretty much  impossible for some foreign government to attempt this. The international polling stations have very strict security as well, and don't even allow non-French citizens to enter the premises. Not to mention the fact, of course, that it'd be quite ridiculously stupid for a nation's government to risk a huge international incident just to cast a few hundred fraudulent ballots for another country's election.

Logged

BK without all the crazy drugs just wouldn't be BK.
I, for one, fully support the increasing gifification of the Atlas.
Robb the Survivor
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30633
France


View Profile
« Reply #513 on: April 30, 2012, 04:01:56 am »
Ignore

Only Libyans really know how much of a hero Sarkozy is ! Grin


So Jews vote right wing in France?

I don't know about Jews in general, but Israel residents must fear socialists to have pro-Palestinian tendencies (though French diplomacy regarding Palestine has hardly been different between left and right-wing governments).
Logged



Robb of the House Stark, First of his Name, Lord of Winterfell and King in the North



Quote from: IRC
22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
Bacon King
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15822
United States Minor Outlying Islands


View Profile
« Reply #514 on: April 30, 2012, 04:41:05 am »
Ignore

Here's a pretty cool map from Wikipedia, showing winner by commune:

Logged

BK without all the crazy drugs just wouldn't be BK.
I, for one, fully support the increasing gifification of the Atlas.
Bacon King
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15822
United States Minor Outlying Islands


View Profile
« Reply #515 on: April 30, 2012, 05:01:21 am »
Ignore

South Sudan: Hell if I know. Total has an oil concession here that they've barely started exploring, so it's probably the oiler + private security combo of Libya without any other expat community or esteem for overthrowing Ghaddaffi.

Okay, figured this out. Le Pen won, yes: with 4 votes out of the 14 cast. So it's really just a statistical anomaly more than anything.
Logged

BK without all the crazy drugs just wouldn't be BK.
I, for one, fully support the increasing gifification of the Atlas.
black and white band photos
BRTD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 72107
Sweden


View Profile
« Reply #516 on: April 30, 2012, 02:58:37 pm »
Ignore

How did Le Pen do in Israel?
Logged




01/05/2004-01/10/2014
MaxQue
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8737
Canada


View Profile
« Reply #517 on: April 30, 2012, 03:29:11 pm »
Ignore

How did Le Pen do in Israel?

Israel:
Sarkozy 82.7, Hollande 7.6, Le Pen 4, Bayrou 2.8, Mélenchon 0.97, Dupont-Aignan 0.84, Joly 0.56, Poutou 0.28, Cheminade 0.15, Arthaud 0.10

Jerusalem (which is separate of Israel and includes Ramallah):
Sarkozy 75.1, Hollande 9.5, Bayrou 6.2, Le Pen 3.6, Mélenchon 2.6, Dupont-Aignan 1.2, Joly 1.2, Poutou 0.19, Cheminade 0.19, Arthaud 0.19
Logged
big bad fab
filliatre
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13946
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: 1.42, S: 4.87

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #518 on: April 30, 2012, 05:06:12 pm »
Ignore

Hash, I was wondering...
how about a comparison between NDA 2012 and Pasqua-Villiers 1999 ?

Unfortunately, no map from Euro 1999 are available any longer on your old blog Tongue Sad
Logged

Enjoy the French elections !
Enjoy polling analysis !
Enjoy my tracker !

http://sondages2012.wordpress.com/
Stranger in a strange land
strangeland
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6307
United States


View Profile
« Reply #519 on: April 30, 2012, 08:06:38 pm »
Ignore

We may also have to envision what sort of person a French expatriate in Cuba might be.

Fair enough, although Sarkozy's results in Libya and Armenia, and Melenchon's result in (once again Sandinista-ruled) Nicaragua also seem a little "fixed."

I didn't know Daniel Ortega is supervising French presidential election abroad.

It'd be trivially easy for a foreign government to commit absentee voter fraud; if they have the names and addresses of French expats they simply send requests for absentee ballots, intercept them at the post office, and fill them out themselves.  Expats in Latin America tend to be wealthy businesspeople, so a large vote for the far-left would not at all be characteristic.

Again, think about what type of French citizen lives in Cuba or Nicaragua, neither of which is friendly towards rich Western businesspeople, and that any French citizen living there would be doing so of their own accord. Also, the Libya result makes sense given Sarkozy's role in the intervention which helped overthrow Gaddafi.
Logged

ag
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6282


View Profile
« Reply #520 on: April 30, 2012, 11:09:21 pm »
Ignore

Again, think about what type of French citizen lives in Cuba or Nicaragua, neither of which is friendly towards rich Western businesspeople, and that any French citizen living there would be doing so of their own accord.

Actually, I am not sure of Nicaragua (don't have any info), but Cuba is, actually, pretty friendly for a certain kind of a European businessman. And, yes, quite a few Europeans (almost definitely French as well) do business there - with the state, much of the time, of course. Money doesn't smell, does it?
Logged

Курица - не птица, Болгария - не заграница.
MaxQue
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8737
Canada


View Profile
« Reply #521 on: May 01, 2012, 02:17:45 am »
Ignore

Anyone has an idea of what's happening with Massif Central?
Is it going the Bretagne way, a couple of decades later?
Logged
only back for the worldcup
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58778
India


View Profile
« Reply #522 on: May 01, 2012, 03:22:49 am »
Ignore

How did Le Pen do in Israel?

Israel:
Sarkozy 82.7, Hollande 7.6, Le Pen 4, Bayrou 2.8, Mélenchon 0.97, Dupont-Aignan 0.84, Joly 0.56, Poutou 0.28, Cheminade 0.15, Arthaud 0.10

Jerusalem (which is separate of Israel and includes Ramallah):
Sarkozy 75.1, Hollande 9.5, Bayrou 6.2, Le Pen 3.6, Mélenchon 2.6, Dupont-Aignan 1.2, Joly 1.2, Poutou 0.19, Cheminade 0.19, Arthaud 0.19
I was seriously wondering about why they defined things that way. Trying to refuse to either endorse or non-endorse Israeli annexation of East Jerusalem?
Logged

"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
danny
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1072
Israel


View Profile
« Reply #523 on: May 01, 2012, 06:46:19 am »
Ignore

I was seriously wondering about why they defined things that way. Trying to refuse to either endorse or non-endorse Israeli annexation of East Jerusalem?


France doesn't recognize any part of Jerusalem as part of Israel (including west Jerusalem), they still refer to Jerusalem as corpus separatum as it was supposed to be under the "United Nations Partition Plan for Palestine".
Logged

only back for the worldcup
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58778
India


View Profile
« Reply #524 on: May 01, 2012, 07:01:16 am »
Ignore

Uh... that sounds odd. (It's not as if they don't recognize the rest of Israel's post-48 boundaries either, is it?) Though it does explain things here.
Logged

"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
Pages: 1 ... 16 17 18 19 20 [21] 22 23 24 25 26 ... 37 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines