France 2012: Official Results Thread

[danny]

Uh... that sounds odd. (It's not as if they don't recognize the rest of Israel's post-48 boundaries either, is it?) Though it does explain things here.

Yes, they are not very consistant about this, one of the polls was in Beer Sheva and is included in Israel despite being part of Palestine under that plan.

[afleitch]

“Scottish” results (those registered with the Edinburgh consultate)

Hollande 35.04
Sarkozy 21.39
Bayrou 15.48
Joly 10.29
Melenchon 9.18
Le Pen 3.99

[ag]

Uh... that sounds odd. (It's not as if they don't recognize the rest of Israel's post-48 boundaries either, is it?) Though it does explain things here.

The corpus separatum thing is the standard Western approach to the legal status of Jerusalem. There is nothing strange or new about it: it has always been the position not only of the French, but of the others as well. The Brits, for instance, do the same. This is what the website of their consulate in Jerusalem says:

"Although we accept de facto Israeli control of West Jerusalem, we consider East Jerusalem to be occupied territory. It is crucial that the parties involved come to an agreement whereby Jerusalem can be a shared capital of the Israeli and Palestinian States."

The idea, of course, is, that Israeli control of West Jerusalem will be recognized de jure (not merely de facto) only after the final settlement is achieved. Until then, for the diplomatic purposes, Jerusalem remains, I guess, the last remnant of the Mandate Palestine

[ag]

Uh... that sounds odd. (It's not as if they don't recognize the rest of Israel's post-48 boundaries either, is it?) Though it does explain things here.

Yes, they are not very consistant about this, one of the polls was in Beer Sheva and is included in Israel despite being part of Palestine under that plan.

They ARE very consistent: it's such a long-standing policy, there's been time to work it out to the minute detail. Israeli post-1948 (pre-1967) borders are, in general, recognized, with one exception: Israeli control of any part of the City of Jerusalem will only be recognized de jure upon the final settlement. The French are not alone here: this is the general approach of most of the world. This is why there are so few embassies in Jerusalem - almost nobody recognizes any part of Jerusalem as legally Israeli. This position is made very clearly, for instance, on the website of the British consulate in Jerusalem.

[big bad fab]

Hash, I was wondering...
how about a comparison between NDA 2012 and Pasqua-Villiers 1999 ?

Unfortunately, no map from Euro 1999 are available any longer on your old blog

BUMP just for Hash

EDIT: and for all, a small article on my blog with some modest maps:
http://sondages2012.wordpress.com/2012/05/01/geographie-electorale-simplifiee-du-1er-tour-lavenir-difficile-de-la-droite-lechec-de-bayrou-la-force-du-neo-lepenisme-et-le-regain-des-gauches/

[danny]

Uh... that sounds odd. (It's not as if they don't recognize the rest of Israel's post-48 boundaries either, is it?) Though it does explain things here.

Yes, they are not very consistant about this, one of the polls was in Beer Sheva and is included in Israel despite being part of Palestine under that plan.

They ARE very consistent: it's such a long-standing policy, there's been time to work it out to the minute detail. Israeli post-1948 (pre-1967) borders are, in general, recognized, with one exception: Israeli control of any part of the City of Jerusalem will only be recognized de jure upon the final settlement. The French are not alone here: this is the general approach of most of the world. This is why there are so few embassies in Jerusalem - almost nobody recognizes any part of Jerusalem as legally Israeli. This position is made very clearly, for instance, on the website of the British consulate in Jerusalem.

It may be long standing but I don't see how it is consistent if they are going to recognize other parts of pre-67 areas as part of Israel and not "west Jerusalem". And it isn't clear to me what "Jerusalem" means. Is it the original UN corpus separatum? The areas currently defined by Israel as Jerusalem? the areas the British mandate defined as jerusalem?

[ag]

It may be long standing but I don't see how it is consistent if they are going to recognize other parts of pre-67 areas as part of Israel and not "west Jerusalem". And it isn't clear to me what "Jerusalem" means. Is it the original UN corpus separatum? The areas currently defined by Israel as Jerusalem? the areas the British mandate defined as jerusalem?

It is consistent with the nearly universally accepted international view of the issue, as reaffirmed in 1980 by the UN Security Council resolution 478.  The corpus separatum refers to Jerusalem, as per the UN Security Council Resolution 181 (II): this is very clearly stated, without any ambiguity, and is not a peculiarly French position at all. The rest of the Israeli post-1949 border is recognized.

[Sibboleth]

Think future discussion of that particular issue would be better elsewhere?

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

Hash, I was wondering...
how about a comparison between NDA 2012 and Pasqua-Villiers 1999 ?

Unfortunately, no map from Euro 1999 are available any longer on your old blog

BUMP just for Hash

In a bid to restore this terrible thread, I drew up a correlation coefficient between the two variables at a departmental level, and it was only 0.17, which is positive but weak. I did find a 0.37 correlation between Boutin and Sarko, though (at a cantonal level).

[Sibboleth]

Do you have a link for results by constituency? Ought to be useful for working things out for the third part of the four General Elections.

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

Either of Geoclip's OVF (http://franceo3.geoclip.fr/index.php?profil=FV#i=xd_pres2012_t1.nuance_tete_t1;l=fr;v=map12) or CDSP (http://cdsp.sciences-po.fr/AE.php) have them.

[big bad fab]

Hash, I was wondering...
how about a comparison between NDA 2012 and Pasqua-Villiers 1999 ?

Unfortunately, no map from Euro 1999 are available any longer on your old blog

BUMP just for Hash

In a bid to restore this terrible thread, I drew up a correlation coefficient between the two variables at a departmental level, and it was only 0.17, which is positive but weak. I did find a 0.37 correlation between Boutin and Sarko, though (at a cantonal level).

Ah, thanks a lot. Yeah, there was something between Boutin and Sarko
As for NDA, maybe we'll keep on searching for him for a long time

[Sibboleth]

Either of Geoclip's OVF (http://franceo3.geoclip.fr/index.php?profil=FV#i=xd_pres2012_t1.nuance_tete_t1;l=fr;v=map12) or CDSP (http://cdsp.sciences-po.fr/AE.php) have them.

Diolch

[Meeker]

Pretty map: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/47/2012_French_presidential_election_-_First_round_-_Majority_vote_%28Metropolitan_France%2C_communes%29.svg

[Senator Sbane]

Why is the far right so strong on the Mediterranean coast of France? High immigration rates? Also why is it strong in those areas near Belgium?

[Senator MaxQue]

Why is the far right so strong on the Mediterranean coast of France? High immigration rates? Also why is it strong in those areas near Belgium?

Mediterranea: High rate of Arab population, I think.
Belgium: Dead industrial areas. Think of dead places of the Rust Belt, like Detroit.

[Colbert]

Either of Geoclip's OVF (http://franceo3.geoclip.fr/index.php?profil=FV#i=xd_pres2012_t1.nuance_tete_t1;l=fr;v=map12) or CDSP (http://cdsp.sciences-po.fr/AE.php) have them.

Diolch

"diolch" ?

[Leftbehind]

Thanks in Welsh.

[Colbert]

something wich could be important for the next legislative election : national result without overseas territories and without french living out of france


1-hollande............28.13%
2-sarkozy..............27.04%
3-MLP....................18.30%
4-mélenchon.........11.29%
5-bayrou...............9.19%
6-joly.....................2.28%
7-NDA....................1.82%
8-poutou...............1.16%
9-arthaud..............0.56%

[Colbert]

Hash, I was wondering...
how about a comparison between NDA 2012 and Pasqua-Villiers 1999 ?

Unfortunately, no map from Euro 1999 are available any longer on your old blog

BUMP just for Hash

EDIT: and for all, a small article on my blog with some modest maps:
http://sondages2012.wordpress.com/2012/05/01/geographie-electorale-simplifiee-du-1er-tour-lavenir-difficile-de-la-droite-lechec-de-bayrou-la-force-du-neo-lepenisme-et-le-regain-des-gauches/

about the "affair" marion/marine, I have discovered than JMLP had want to name is daughter Marine, but the "etat-civil" (in 1968) did'nt accept this name, so, he write "marion"

but her name is, if not de jure, really Marine.

[Colbert]

(but, without this story who make me "gnnnnrrrrr" (^^), I have to say that i love read your blog, not only because the informations I got, but for the sense of humor (? humour?) you develop)


(I like too the fact you use the beautiul names of are former provinces, duchy & county more than the ugly "river-names" of our departements. (frankly, who's the crazy guy who create "ile-et-vilaine")

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

A 5%-scaled map of the results of the first round by canton or city:



Have fun!

[State Comptroller Atkins]

No matter the result, we can be sure that Hashemite will be insisting that all French people are stupid idiots tomorrow night.

[RogueBeaver]

No matter the result, we can be sure that Hashemite will be insisting that all French people are stupid idiots tomorrow night.

Here, here.

[Tender Branson]

Great map, Hash !

Thx.



BTW, can we not have a new results thread only for the run-off ?