France 2012: Official Results Thread

[You kip if you want to...]

One of the nicest moments of the election night.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-z1L7xxmQsU

ok... i've just realised this now... both Thomas Hollande and Jean Sarkozy (the sons) are both very Hot, very attractive men... gah

and i guess i am just learning about him, sounds like a fun guy

Jean Sarkozy looks like an arrogant stupid young rich asshole (which is what he probably is). Thomas Hollande looks like a naive lefty student. Two living stereotypes.

Definitely their father's sons then.

[Proud Lieberal from Northeast]

Comparison of the 2nd round victories of French Presidents:

1965: De Gaulle - 55.2%
1969: Pompidou - 57.5%
1974: Giscard - 50.81%
1981: Mitterrand - 51.76%
1988: Mitterrand - 54.02%
1995: Chirac - 52.64%
2002: Chirac - 82.21%
2007: Sarkozy - 53.06%
2012: Hollande - 51.63%

Best result: Chirac 2002
Best result under "normal" circumstances: Pompidou 1969
Worst result: Giscard 1974

1969 arguably wasn't "normal". Turnout was dreadful and the runoff opposed two right wingers (the latter explains the former, of course).

Yes, but Poher was a mainstream anti-gaullist right candidate. Le Pen was not "mainstream" by any standards.

[Californian Tony]

Comparison of the 2nd round victories of French Presidents:

1965: De Gaulle - 55.2%
1969: Pompidou - 57.5%
1974: Giscard - 50.81%
1981: Mitterrand - 51.76%
1988: Mitterrand - 54.02%
1995: Chirac - 52.64%
2002: Chirac - 82.21%
2007: Sarkozy - 53.06%
2012: Hollande - 51.63%

Best result: Chirac 2002
Best result under "normal" circumstances: Pompidou 1969
Worst result: Giscard 1974

1969 arguably wasn't "normal". Turnout was dreadful and the runoff opposed two right wingers (the latter explains the former, of course).

Yes, but Poher was a mainstream anti-gaullist right candidate. Le Pen was not "mainstream" by any standards.

Of course. Still I think it's fairer to include only classical left-right confrontations in the "normal" category. Not that it makes the picture any brighter for Hollande. Even more so if you look at the % of registered voters instead of valid votes.

[batmacumba]

I believe the anti christ will be a socialist, so for him to control europe, he will need socialist governments in place. I believe that we are seeing bible prophecy fulfilled. These people don't want balanced budgets, they don't want austerity, and many don't want to work, they want a nanny government to take care of them, and this is why the anti christ will be so well received. I can see his campaign slogan now, TRUST ME, I WILL TAKE CARE OF YOU, it will require a little mark though, in your hand or forehead. I believe he will confiscate the wealth of the developed countries, and the wealth left behind by raptured saints. THis will cause commerce to prosper, as the Bible says. Just imagine the stimulus effect this would have. I believe we might already know this man, although I don't have a clue who he is.

... Are you kidding me... i was going to report this, as it is extremely offensive to me as a Socialist/Social democrat but i've decided to let it be as the rediculousness of your comments will cause most of us to just laugh or shake our heads. I am hoping that this was intended to be ironic or sarcastic, but yikes.
... didn't we have an anti-christ already? Oh ya wasn't he a Nazi... an extreme right-wing facist capitalist?
If you can't have an adult conversation without bursting into Falwell then please go, i'm sure their is a religious zealot message board somewhere (do ppl still say message board? lol)

You clearly don't know King.

One doesn't need to know him to see the post's wit. The three last sentences should make anyone understand...

[Hashemite]

One of the nicest moments of the election night.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-z1L7xxmQsU

Yeah, it was a nice moment. But only because it proved that journalists, especially those on France 2, are useless idiots who are entirely and beyond useless. Last night was about as ridiculous as Wolf Blitzer getting high off the Minnesota caucus sites.

[big bad fab]

For completion's sake (even though it hurts...) :



Epic fail is epic.

The polls were really accurate ! My tracker was a good idea

[Californian Tony]

What I really wonder is : would Sarkozy have won with one week more ? Or would the voters have settled with this standing ? Just thinking to it makes me shudder.

[Senator MaxQue]

It's better to not wonder about those questions, Antonio.
Stop thinking about it.

[Swedish Cheese]

What I really wonder is : would Sarkozy have won with one week more ? Or would the voters have settled with this standing ? Just thinking to it makes me shudder.

You guys are exagurating it. It always gets closer the closer you get to election day. Had the election been a week from now the campaign would have began a week later and we'd still have the same result.

EDIT: Although it is an intresting trend, if it continues Hollande will be down to single digits by the next election.

[President Marokai]

Antonio, you have your first Socialist President in a long time. Be happy with the victory and stop depressing me.

[Sibboleth]

Harold Wilson's first parliamentary majority was four seats.

[Keystone Phil]

One more week and...

Sarkozy would have been re-elected.

[King]

One more week and...

Sarkozy would have been re-elected.

Please, he lost to a bald socialist by 18 points yesterday.

[Colbert]

some maps


evolution fn 1st round 1988-2012




evolution left 2d round, 1974-2012 (quartiles)



evolution left 2d round 1974-2012 (absolute)




eva joly, 1st round (quartiles*)



françois bayrou 1st round (quartiles*)



jean-luc mélenchon 1st round (quartiles*)



marine le pen 1st round (quartiles*)



nicolas sarkozy 1st round (quartiles*)



françois hollande 1st round (quartiles*)





*quartiles, but pondered by national score (upon : trying to have 2 levels of same numbers of communes ; under : trying to have 2 levels of same numbers of communes)

[rob in cal]

Do we have any info on the geographic distribution of blank votes?

[Proud Lieberal from Northeast]

I'm all in favor of temporary banning Antonio until after legislative election. Otherwise, he'd kill us with his pessimism.

[Simfan34]

One more week and...

Sarkozy would have been re-elected.

One more week and...

Jon Huntsman would have tied with Mitt Romney in the NH primary.

One more week... but it wasn't. This is just silly.

[You kip if you want to...]

One more week and...

Sarkozy would have been re-elected.

One more week and...

Jon Huntsman would have tied with Mitt Romney in the NH primary.

Now that one is sad.

(OBAMA/HUNTSMAN 2012!)

[Senator MaxQue]

Well, I noticed something I missed on election night.

Hollande won Basse-Normandie (!), won Calvados quite easily, was very close in Manche and managed to win a circonscription in Orne (!).

[big bad fab]

Manche is especially a very bad result for the right and I don't know really why.
Bad, OK, but that bad...

I don't think the only fact Cazeneuve was one of the four spokesmen is a reason
And on nuclear matters, well, on Flamanville and La Hague, Hollande is almost on line with Sarkozy.
Maybe rural upset translating, here more than anywhere else, by a "revolutionary" vote against the right ?

[You kip if you want to...]

Now this is something i'd love to see on Trafalgar Square. Alas, the British are less fun.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1hGkZcD6oeI

[Hashemite]

My post on the runoff, for the few who care about my long blabber: http://welections.wordpress.com/2012/05/16/france-2012-runof/

A cantonal map is in the works.

[Leftbehind]

Now this is something i'd love to see on Trafalgar Square. Alas, the British are less fun.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1hGkZcD6oeI

I'd say it's because politics means less in the UK and our politicians are as much to blame for that as anyone.

[Colbert]

Some map wich divided france between 2 zones : 50% of best results of each candidate (or each family)

PS vs UMP


PS vs FN


PS vs FDG


PS vs MD


UMP vs FN


UMP vs FDG


UMP vs MD


FN vs FDG


FN vs MD


FDG vs MD


PS' France


UMP's France


FN's France


FDG's FRANCE


MODEM's FRANCE


LEFTS's FRANCE (LO+NPA+FDG+EELV+PS)


RIGHTS's FRANCE (UMP+FN+DLR)


FAR-LEFT's FRANCE (NPA+LO+EELV+FDG)


CENTRE-LEFT's FRANCE (PS+MD)


CENTRE-RIGHT's FRANCE (UMP+MD)


CENTRIST's FRANCE (UMP+MD+PS)


ETATIST's FRANCE (FDG+FN+DLR+LO+NPA)

[TheParliamentarian]

latest poll numbers?