France 2012: Official Results Thread

[Sam Spade]

Overall, it candidates running on anti-neoliberal platforms look to take about a third of the vote. And this is before the austerity thrashing Germany is about to deliver France in the next few years. After that, we'll have a real competition. Unthinkable five years ago. Unthinkable.

Well, it was certainly obvious 3 years ago, at least.

[Sam Spade]

So what are Sarkozy's odds of survival? Maybe 1/5 or something like that?

1%.  And I'm being generous there just because the PS is guaranteed to take the wrong strategy to winning, i.e. let's run to not lose, which is the only way of losing.  A competent party and candidate would be 100% assured of election in this type of "Mickey Mouse" struggle.

I'm tempted to also say that the PS chances in 2017 are somewhere around 1% also, but that is unnecessary dick-waving.