France 2012: Official Results Thread

[Torie]

Hollande was "elected" based on a 4 point spread in an exit poll (presumably an incomplete one if the polls just closed)?  If so, all I can say is no one would so call an election based on that in the US.

[Torie]

Hollande was "elected" based on a 4 point spread in an exit poll?  If so, all I can say is no one would so call an election based on that in the US.

France has 7 exit pollsters, they cannot be all wrong.

The exit polls actually vary from 52 to 53.5% for Hollande.

OK. I would still be a tad leery myself. How does the registered versus likely voters thing affect exit polls, which presumably are of "already voted" voters?  And do they have any vote by mail? I am not saying Hollande has not won, but what I am saying, is that anything less than about 54%, and you need to wait for some raw votes in the US. I think Gore was ahead by at least 6% in the Florida exit poll. So the networks rushed to call it, and the rest is history.

[Torie]

Does it really matter who runs France?  I mean, isn't the international economic/debt leash on it so tight now, that the government's only big decision is what color of pencils to use?  Just asking.

[Torie]

Does it really matter who runs France?  I mean, isn't the international economic/debt leash on it so tight now, that the government's only big decision is what color of pencils to use?  Just asking.

You're in the wrong thread. That'd be Greece.

France doesn't have much more running room these days. Anyway, I remember when Mitterrand first won, and had to chuck most of his program pretty quickly, when the Franc started collapsing. The US gets away with more because of its reserve currency status.

[Torie]

Does it really matter who runs France?  I mean, isn't the international economic/debt leash on it so tight now, that the government's only big decision is what color of pencils to use?  Just asking.

Nah. France (and Sarko) is fairly big, it'll shake the tiny pro-total-deluge bureaucratic minority that currently runs things. Though only, of course, up to a point - PS being a centrist social democratic party. This might prevent your type from self-destructing, but it won't shake your grip on power.

So if Hollande messes up what are the chances we see Sarkozy again in 2017? Or does that not happen in France?

Happens in France, but won't to that thing. Trust me on that. A Sarkozy that's proven his beatability might as well never have been born in terms of future electability. Not that that ends his type of politics, of course. Not in the slightest.

Sarkozy is joining Giscard club.

Alas, poor Valery

Couldn't have happened to a nicer guy.

Pro total deluge eh?  You mean you think Sarko has policies that will lead to another sans culotte takeover or something, causing a "destruction" of the bourgeoisie? Or is it something more subtle. Or is it just rhetoric.

[Torie]

52.67% for Hollande in Sarthe.
He takes La Reunion with 71%
53.8% for Sarko in Meause

Do all of these little provincial numbers fit the pattern as it were?  Numbers without patterns are like shoes without socks.

[Torie]

52.67% for Hollande in Sarthe.
He takes La Reunion with 71%
53.8% for Sarko in Meause

Do all of these little provincial numbers fit the pattern as it were?  Numbers without patterns are like shoes without socks.

Lozere was 55-45 for Sarko in 2007. Now it's a tie.
Lot had Royal at 56%. Hollande took 61%.
Meuse was won by Sarzo with 56.9% in 2007. Now it's down to 53.8%
Sarthe was 50.5% to 49.5% for Sarkozy. Now it's 52.6% for Hollande

Yes, a 5 point swing fits the pattern. A 3 point swing is a tie (I looked up the numbers from the last election). I assume most of the the little nodes will be 5 pointers rather than 2 or 3 pointers, given that the exit polls in France are just so apparently marvelous.

[Torie]

The geographically highly polarized Paris - and boy was it highly polarized - 78% Sarko on the far west end to 72% Hollande on the opposite side.