France 2012: Official Results Thread

[Beet]

Overall, it candidates running on anti-neoliberal platforms look to take about a third of the vote. And this is before the austerity thrashing Germany is about to deliver France in the next few years. After that, we'll have a real competition. Unthinkable five years ago. Unthinkable.

[Beet]

Overall, it candidates running on anti-neoliberal platforms look to take about a third of the vote. And this is before the austerity thrashing Germany is about to deliver France in the next few years. After that, we'll have a real competition. Unthinkable five years ago. Unthinkable.

Well, it was certainly obvious 3 years ago, at least.

Maybe to you. Three years ago the euro crisis hadn't broken out, and most people didn't realize how bad it would get. In any case, just noting it down.

I'm proud of how well Melenchon did. He started out as a gadfly, and it looks like he may do better than Jean-Marie in 2007. Impressive. I'm certain he took some votes from FN as well.

[Beet]

Why are the rural areas of France so left-wing?

[Beet]

Why are the rural areas of France so left-wing?

Which ones?

euh...yes...kinda what I was going to say...

It looks like most of them except for the eastern border areas.

[Beet]

Why are the rural areas of France so left-wing?

Which ones?

euh...yes...kinda what I was going to say...

It looks like most of them except for the eastern border areas.

Well, look at Aveyron, just for one...

I'm not a data junkie but rural might where the Right do the biggest in France, that's at least how it's culturally seen.

What about Aveyron?

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lol, come on dude. You're not seriously telling me that you're less knowledgeable about this than I am. I know that's not true.

The Right seems to be doing the best in medium-sized industrial cities in the east and north, not rural areas.

[Beet]

What about Aveyron?

http://www.google.com/elections/ed/fr/results

it's the big pink one siding the 2 blue ones between Toulouse and Montpellier.

And your point being...

[Beet]

...that in this very rural département in a quite leftist French région, Midi-Pyrénées, you can find about as much communes in blue than in pink...

But Hollande still outperformed there and Sarko and Le Pen underperformed, overall. Is Herault, to its south, not in the same region? Hollande did far worse there and Le Pen far better, although Sarko about the same.

[Beet]

...that in this very rural département in a quite leftist French région, Midi-Pyrénées, you can find about as much communes in blue than in pink...

But Hollande still outperformed there and Sarko and Le Pen underperformed, overall. Is Herault, to its south, not in the same region? Hollande did far worse there and Le Pen far better, although Sarko about the same.

Yeah, that's what I was saying in my stuff about climate and Mediterranean arch, Aveyron is part of South-West, doesn't belong to the Mediterranean climate area.

And all those départements that you can see in blue in the western half of the country are also quite rural, well, just enjoy to pass your mouse on all dpts and if you have an idea of where are most of French agglomerations/urbanized parts, you might see that what you were saying wouldn't be necessarily true...

Ah, ok thanks.

[Beet]

Marine has done very well in old Communist working-class municipalities, historically so. Melenchon's appeal to the old PCF prole base has been fairly tepid to say the least. A comparison to Hue's 1995 map will be very interesting, I already know that Hue did better in the Allier in 95 than Memelenchon. The bad news is, I'll have to suffer through the loads and loads of douchebags who will use this as proof that there has always been a strong link between Commies and Fascists... just like the Commies use the 1984 Euros to prove the contrary... oh Christ... I might as well jump off a bridge...

Well as far as the campaign went, were there glaring differences between Marine and Melenchon on economic policy? They are both euroskeptic, anti-globalization, one favors regulating banks heavily, the other favors nationalizing them, etc. Main difference is one emphasizes reducing immigration, the other does not speak to it, no?

[Beet]

Is it really so bad? (it's hard for me to say this since I'm usually aggressively pessimistic)

First of all, aren't there numerous other left-wing candidates on the ballot? (Poutou, Arthaud,Cheminade) When I sum these up I get about 13.1%. Compared to 2007, when you sum up the far left candidates you get around 9.4%. So the far left did improve.

Secondly, 18% for FN- really that much surprise? Yes it's two points higher than her polling, but the far-right frequently underpolls-we knew that. Plus at the beginning of the year she was polling at 19-20%. Yes she did better than her father in 2002, but in 2002 there was no economic crisis. Now you have this movement (FN) saying for years that the euro was going to be a problem, and you have this massive crisis. No surprise at all.

I've taken another look at Marine's positions- she supports allowing the government to borrow from the central bank at low interest. This is a sane position-- arguably the Bundesbank position is far more insane than that. She supports the Havana Charter, a Keynesian idea to stabilize trade imbalances between countries. The last problem Keynes worked on at the end of his life. I don't see this as a problem.

Overall, except that she is associated with FN, I think some of her positions should be taken and co-opted by the left. Melenchon or someone like him should continue to build on his movement, perhaps moderate a bit to attract more voters. France must learn to say 'no' or at least credibly threaten it or Merkel will never wake up. Now France has Spain, Italy, and possibly Netherlands at her side! The majority of Europe is waking up.

[Beet]

Mitterrand took about 51.8% in 1981, interestingly enough.

Yep. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_1981

Thanks man. I hadn't realized to look at wikipedia.

[Beet]

Does it really matter who runs France?

Between the two guys running today? Not really. Hollande has different bluster but in the end Merkel holds the whip over him same as his predecessor. If Le Pen or Melenchon however, then you'd have potential for something (good or bad- up to you).

[Beet]

So he's winning basically the same areas this time as the first round.

[Beet]

Wow Alpes-Maritimes.

[Beet]

Anyone have a feeling about how the narrowness of Hollande's victory will impact the legislative elections.  I'm wondering if the rightwing parties will be reenergized because Sarkozy's loss wasnt as big as many expected.

Well, the Right/Far-Right is entering in the storm now, no matter the score of this election, a storm that began on the 22nd of April...

And there is not 'the right wing parties', there are 'some different right-wing parties'.

And maybe some new things happening on the Centre too.

How to deal with the Right is simple, IMO. The Left must embrace French identity, get tough on immigration. No one likes to feel their culture under threat.

[Beet]

Anyone have a feeling about how the narrowness of Hollande's victory will impact the legislative elections.  I'm wondering if the rightwing parties will be reenergized because Sarkozy's loss wasnt as big as many expected.

Well, the Right/Far-Right is entering in the storm now, no matter the score of this election, a storm that began on the 22nd of April...

And there is not 'the right wing parties', there are 'some different right-wing parties'.

And maybe some new things happening on the Centre too.

How to deal with the Right is simple, IMO. The Left must embrace French identity, get tough on immigration. No one likes to feel their culture under threat.

Once again, you don't know enough Marine Le Pen, to think it's easy to counter her on those topics, and Sarkozy having made a huge 'French kiss' (amusing to use it here) to her ideas during the 2 last years while looking far less credible than her doing blatant pitiful electoralism (you should watch a video compilation of someone called Claude Guéant, amongst other ones), the Left can do nothing against the groth of those ideas here.

Eh, who says it must be only electoralism without convictions? If you look at French history it is not barren for people on the Left at all... why should French identity be surrendered to the fascists? It reminds me of how American liberals fail to dispute conservative interpretations of the US Constitution.

I agree I do not know about Marine Le Pen as you, I just look at the comments on websites in English, such as the Guardian. I note that most people on the Guardian have positive things to say about her... on a left-wing British website? Why do most people have positive things to say about her? Because, they say, a country has the right to defend its identity, culture. I only know what I read. But perhaps that helps explain the success of FN.