France 2012: Official Results Thread

[minionofmidas]

I just voted ! Second vote in my life, first in France and first for an electoral contest.

The perfect election to officially become a citizen.

This morning, in my polling station, I felt like there were only leftist voters... really...

You actually meet other voters in your polling station? I envy you.

[minionofmidas]

I've found such leaked numbers. Only for the top five candidates and rounded to the full percentage though, so I could have just as well pulled them out of a hat. Hollande 27, Sarko 25, Le Pen 16, Mélenchon 13, Bayrou 10

[minionofmidas]

Is Atlas deathly slow, or is it just me?

Both of you.

[minionofmidas]

AFP has Hollande 29.0, Sarko 26.7, Le Pen 19.6, Melenchon 10.5, Bayrou 8.3.
And Arthaud beating Cheminade for last.

[minionofmidas]

St barthelemy (cause that wasn't leaked earlier)
Sarkozy 62.4
Le Pen 11.4
Hollande 10.1

[minionofmidas]

AFP has total results for Lozere
Sarkozy 27.8, Hollande 25.2, Le Pen 17.3, Melenchon 12.4, Bayrou 11.1
And the Ministry has total results for Creuse
Hollande 34.0, Sarkozy 22.2, Le Pen 16.3, Melenchon 13.0, Bayrou 8.3

[minionofmidas]

...which are both far ahead of daddy's 2002 figures in these places, but also good results for Hollande.

[minionofmidas]

Lot
Hollande 34.5, Sarkozy 21.4, Melenchon 14.4, Le Pen 13.5, Bayrou 9.3 (Daddy had just 10.8% here in 2002, barely beating Saint Josse for third.)

[minionofmidas]

Ariege, though I really wonder why AFP has totally different departments up than the Government.
Hollande 34.4, Sarkozy 18.7, Melenchon 16.9, Le Pen 16.8, Bayrou 6.7

Doesn't really square with the results from elsewhere. Le Pen only slightly above 02, Hollande actually below Royal. Melenchon taking a bite out of traditional southwestern PS votes, I think? Makes you wonder who, exactly, the historical LO voters are going for...

[minionofmidas]

Anyways, real life calls. I'll be back tomorrow after work to take a long look at the full glory of these results.

[minionofmidas]

Also, look at the voting by class. National Front does best among the working class(ouvrier), but steadily declines as you move up the income ladder... until you reach the upperclass(artisan, commercant, chef d'enterprise), where NF registers it's second best performance.

Also notably the upperclass registers 0% support for minor parties. And the fact that Bayrou does badly among them... I'd have thought he's precisely the kind of socially liberal establishmentarian that would appeal to them.

The self-employed are not, primarily, upperclass people. Especially not by attitude.

[minionofmidas]

It takes a very shallow political divide to create a sizable gender gap, as where the differences are starker, families tend to vote for the same camp.

[minionofmidas]

Utterly random observations:

Hollande won the Marquesas. The patterns in Polynesia cannot, I think, be explained by racial polarization, with Tahiti not voting far different from the remainder (though Le Pen is stronger and Hollande weaker). Nor does there seem to be a turnout gap. Huge random variations between one atoll and the next.

Somewhere early in this thread someone mentioned that Joly won a tiny village (Trémargat) in inland Cote d'Armor - she did so with 29%, with Mélenchon second on 27%. And the next village to the north (Peumerit-Quintin), she tied Hollande and Le Pen with 20 votes each out of 102, with Mélenchon on 19. What the hell is that?

Also, what's with Mélenchon's strength in the Alpes d'Haute Provence, mostly the tiny villages. I never had that down as a Commie stronghold.

[minionofmidas]

Drome? Ardèche? Hadn't looked at those yet.

Holy shmoking cojones.

Vachères en Quint: Mélenchon 53%, Joly 21%, Arthaud 5%. Out of 19 voters, mind - Hollande is on 0. (3 votes for Sarko and 1 for Bayrou).

Or, Saint Andéol: Mélenchon 31%, Le Pen 20%, Joly 16%. Out of 45 votes this time.

And yeah, there's one for Joly: Rioms. 18 votes. Joly 8, Mélenchon 6, Poutou 2, Sarkozy 1, Bayrou 1.

Smaller than the Breton places, of course, which being Breton are real villages with over a hundred votes still.

[minionofmidas]

Well, in the 2010 regionals and obviously the 2009 Euros, there are a ton of Green-voting municipalities in the Drome and Ardeche.

One would figure. Mélenchon got a lot of those votes this time round.

[minionofmidas]

Sarko gets the VGE endorsement for what it's worth (I'm guessing not much?)

http://www.leparisien.fr/election-presidentielle-2012/valery-giscard-d-estaing-pourquoi-je-voterai-sarkozy-26-04-2012-1972652.php

Hollande +1.

Raw vote, net. That's about the degree of relevance Giscard still has.

[minionofmidas]

Hmmm, French voters in Palestine.

Mélenchon 18, Hollande 17, Sarkozy 8, Bayrou 6, Joly 5, Le Pen 0, others 0.

EDIT: And 59% of the French who voted in India live in Pondi. It figures - only place you can get a baguette (and quite easily too; it's been adopted as part of the local cuisine). And they lean far more left than the French elsewhere in India. Again, it figures.

[minionofmidas]

Avignon?!!!

You mean the city voting leftish, very unlike its surrounds? Is that a new phenomenon in Avignon; even so it'd be part of a general trend o/c?

[minionofmidas]

Hollande won Marseille and lost Lyon ? Wow, that must be a quite right-wing city...

Note the FN figures... Lyon is a bourgeois city. Also, of course, there's the issue of Villeurbanne being outside the city limits.

[minionofmidas]

Also, with the sad exception of Toulon and the obvious one of Versailles, Hollande wins every place on that list that I've visited.

[minionofmidas]

How did Le Pen do in Israel?

Israel:
Sarkozy 82.7, Hollande 7.6, Le Pen 4, Bayrou 2.8, Mélenchon 0.97, Dupont-Aignan 0.84, Joly 0.56, Poutou 0.28, Cheminade 0.15, Arthaud 0.10

Jerusalem (which is separate of Israel and includes Ramallah):
Sarkozy 75.1, Hollande 9.5, Bayrou 6.2, Le Pen 3.6, Mélenchon 2.6, Dupont-Aignan 1.2, Joly 1.2, Poutou 0.19, Cheminade 0.19, Arthaud 0.19

I was seriously wondering about why they defined things that way. Trying to refuse to either endorse or non-endorse Israeli annexation of East Jerusalem?

[minionofmidas]

Uh... that sounds odd. (It's not as if they don't recognize the rest of Israel's post-48 boundaries either, is it?) Though it does explain things here.

[minionofmidas]

No matter the result, we can be sure that Hashemite will be insisting that all French people are stupid idiots tomorrow night.

Even french people are still people. QED, he's right.

[minionofmidas]

A sad day for France and for the world.

If that 48.1% is true... indeed.

[minionofmidas]

There's also the issue of much of the country actually being counted already, just not formally collated.