France 2012: Official Results Thread

[Colbert]

I have to admit i had sh**ting a lot. So, i will not made no one prevision and only bring maps (i have even made a cheminade map^^)

see you tomorrow folks

[Colbert]

"bastion" (I don"t remember the english word for that) of each candidate. Don't be surprised to not have a lot of blue departments : it's because the sarkozy vote is less concentrate than the others.

color key : red : mélenchon ; pink : hollande ; orange : bayrou ; blue : sarkozy ; "bonapartist green" : MLP
methodology : best % of each candidate compare to metropolitan result



right-wing departments (sarkozy, NDA, MLP)
methodology : quartile (not based on the national score level, but by division of the 96 departments in 4 quarters : in blue, the 1° to 24° best results, in light blue : the 25° to 48° best results, in pink, 49 to 72 results and in red, the worst results

(this methodology and color key is the same for all the next maps)



left-wing departments (hollande, mélenchon, arthaud, poutou, joly)


"government parties" map (hollande, bayrou, sarkozy) aka the "reasonable france map"



hollandist france


sarkozyst france


marinist france


melenchonist france (as opposite to a lot of analysis made, this map show than melenchonist vote is very near to traditionnal PCF map vote, specially Marchais 1981 vote map)



bayrou's france (the problem of bayrou is that his words of "center-center man" is in opposition with is geographic pattern : the bayrou map is the ARCHTYPE of the eternal french right map, especially in catholic areas)


Norwegian postmenopausal france


NDA france (the same as Villierist france)


arthaudist france


poutouist france (strange map, very few from chaban-delmas 1974 map -a centrist-gaullist candidate, and very few to occupate zone of france in 1940-1942)


lyndonlarouchist france


***********************************************




left vs right (this map not include bayrou and cheminade)



same map, but most affined
blue : right +10 points above total left
light blue : right, less 10 points above total left
pink : left, less 10 points above total right
red : left, +10 points above total right

[Colbert]

Either of Geoclip's OVF (http://franceo3.geoclip.fr/index.php?profil=FV#i=xd_pres2012_t1.nuance_tete_t1;l=fr;v=map12) or CDSP (http://cdsp.sciences-po.fr/AE.php) have them.

Diolch

"diolch" ?

[Colbert]

something wich could be important for the next legislative election : national result without overseas territories and without french living out of france


1-hollande............28.13%
2-sarkozy..............27.04%
3-MLP....................18.30%
4-mélenchon.........11.29%
5-bayrou...............9.19%
6-joly.....................2.28%
7-NDA....................1.82%
8-poutou...............1.16%
9-arthaud..............0.56%

[Colbert]

Hash, I was wondering...
how about a comparison between NDA 2012 and Pasqua-Villiers 1999 ?

Unfortunately, no map from Euro 1999 are available any longer on your old blog

BUMP just for Hash

EDIT: and for all, a small article on my blog with some modest maps:
http://sondages2012.wordpress.com/2012/05/01/geographie-electorale-simplifiee-du-1er-tour-lavenir-difficile-de-la-droite-lechec-de-bayrou-la-force-du-neo-lepenisme-et-le-regain-des-gauches/

about the "affair" marion/marine, I have discovered than JMLP had want to name is daughter Marine, but the "etat-civil" (in 1968) did'nt accept this name, so, he write "marion"

but her name is, if not de jure, really Marine.

[Colbert]

(but, without this story who make me "gnnnnrrrrr" (^^), I have to say that i love read your blog, not only because the informations I got, but for the sense of humor (? humour?) you develop)


(I like too the fact you use the beautiul names of are former provinces, duchy & county more than the ugly "river-names" of our departements. (frankly, who's the crazy guy who create "ile-et-vilaine")

[Colbert]

some maps


evolution fn 1st round 1988-2012




evolution left 2d round, 1974-2012 (quartiles)



evolution left 2d round 1974-2012 (absolute)




eva joly, 1st round (quartiles*)



françois bayrou 1st round (quartiles*)



jean-luc mélenchon 1st round (quartiles*)



marine le pen 1st round (quartiles*)



nicolas sarkozy 1st round (quartiles*)



françois hollande 1st round (quartiles*)





*quartiles, but pondered by national score (upon : trying to have 2 levels of same numbers of communes ; under : trying to have 2 levels of same numbers of communes)

[Colbert]

Some map wich divided france between 2 zones : 50% of best results of each candidate (or each family)

PS vs UMP


PS vs FN


PS vs FDG


PS vs MD


UMP vs FN


UMP vs FDG


UMP vs MD


FN vs FDG


FN vs MD


FDG vs MD


PS' France


UMP's France


FN's France


FDG's FRANCE


MODEM's FRANCE


LEFTS's FRANCE (LO+NPA+FDG+EELV+PS)


RIGHTS's FRANCE (UMP+FN+DLR)


FAR-LEFT's FRANCE (NPA+LO+EELV+FDG)


CENTRE-LEFT's FRANCE (PS+MD)


CENTRE-RIGHT's FRANCE (UMP+MD)


CENTRIST's FRANCE (UMP+MD+PS)


ETATIST's FRANCE (FDG+FN+DLR+LO+NPA)

[Colbert]

some people give us ONE map, and hello to lot of "thanks"

I give 274455 maps, and... nothing.


je vous emmârde et je rentre à mâ mâzon