France 2012: Official Results Thread

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

A voté!

Et ensuite...

A dormi!

(well, tried to...)

I don't know if it's because I didn't sleep last night but it's crazy how one can feel powerless and ridiculous by doing it, when I was putting my 'Jean-Luc Mélenchon' ballot in my little blue envelop, I was thinking 'lol, how cute of me...'. That goes in line with my general feeling with that campaing and that election though, such a politico-media circus, thankfully it's over soon! only 14 days left!

Well, I still have a bit of interest in it though, I wouldn't be here otherwise.

Hey, big enough turnout apparently, that what I was thinking with the evolution of the campaign, some fresh people like Mélenchon and Marine Le Pen would help to make it higher, well, could mean the both are high enough.

Not that I feel that the results of this are that important, and that what they propose is a finality but:



ALLEZ LE FRONT DE GAUCHE!!

Oh and, fine that this year everybody has to wait the same hour to get some results.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

I've got BFM on because I can't find any better streams! TF1 is region locked, anyone got anything better?

Can you watch France24?

Other ones:

itele.fr

france2.fr

dunno if france3 does something live on internet.

There shouldn't be any real drama to this, should there? The polling has been incredibly consistent.

Mélenchon and Marine Le Pen remain quite hard to be sure about their polling. But let's just see. 1 min.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Oh................................

Freaking f**king gosh...

Marine Le Pen 18

Mélenchon 11

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Oh................................

Freaking f**king gosh...

Marine Le Pen 18

Mélenchon 11

The BBC says Le Pen is on 20....

I was taking my 1st results of itélé, they work with CSA, but apparently everybody around the world took Sofres, hopefully CSA is on something, and she doesn't break the 20% barre, freaking f**king gosh...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

antenne 2

Cute. Back in the 80s.  .

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Also, lol at the joke Melenchon.

Maybe I'm a little bit biased about him, but he actually did the best campaign, which has been acnowledged by all commentators regardless of their biases, and has the most solid and fair discourse.

Now the point is really to know what this FN score is made of, it's been never reached before...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Bayrou can't be counted as being part of the right, however defined.

Euh, listening to him in this campaign he would rather clearly economically be on the Right.

But technically, yes, it's almost a principle for him to always stick to THE MIDDLE.

But overall, Bayrou is Bayrou, period. He would only have a chance of future if Sarkozy loses.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Oh................................

Freaking f**king gosh...

Marine Le Pen 18

Mélenchon 11

The BBC says Le Pen is on 20....

I was taking my 1st results of itélé, they work with CSA, but apparently everybody around the world took Sofres, hopefully CSA is on something, and she doesn't break the 20% barre, freaking f**king gosh...

Sorry, france2, and apparently everybody else in the world, works with IPSOS, not Sofres, it's because my mind keeps associating Brice Teinturier to Sofres...

Apparently some other pollsters gives Le Pen 18 and Sarkozy 27. Hopefully she doesn't break the 20%...

Bayrou is arround 9 everywhere apparently so far. Douste already calling for a new (!) political force (aka movement) of the Center... That'd be those voters who gonna make this election. And tonight, what we can say is that, purely arithmetically, Hollande could need them if he wants to reach 50%...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Tonight, purely arithmetically, and taking IPSOS:

Left: 44%
Right: 47%
Center/Bayrou: 9%

If you assume that most of Bayrou voters would traditionally be part of the goold old UDF, then, it's rather good for Sarkozy.

But, once again, it's hard to tell of what such a FN score is done, and as for Bayrou, he can also embody a part of the anti-Sarkozist vote. Anti-Sarkozisme twistes a lot of things in the political debate of this country, and has been the main point of this campaign, so, who knows how it can turn...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

...which are both far ahead of daddy's 2002 figures in these places, but also good results for Hollande.

Yeah, especially if you compare the turnouts compared with 2002 whcih broke abstention records.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

In case Sarkozy loses, UMP will be devastated, and Marine Le Pen could really take an important role. But really, tonight, nothing is done, especially when you consider that (unlike all people chanting 'Hollande has already won!!' during all the last week, how crazy), with the 2nd run it's a new campaign that begins. Will be interesting to see his behavior, if he still believes in it, then he should never be underestimated.

She just did a 'good' speech...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Florange (small place in Lorraine with big Mital steel factory, made lot of noise during the campaign):

F. Hollande 32,30 %
M. Le Pen 25,70 %
N. Sarkozy 19,01 %
J-L. Mélenchon 11,81 %

...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Weak speech of Hollande, what a contrast with MLP's...

Also Collard (famous lawyer, support of MLP) confirmed what she spoka about a few days before the 1st run, they gonna change the name of FN and try to create a new big 'patriotic' movement. And Bayrou confirmed his will to also create a 'new' force on the Center. If Sarkozy loses, that reallly gonna be hot on the Right. UMP was mainly designed by and for Sarkozy, that'd make sense that, still in case he loses, it sinks with him...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

All pollsters, to compare with exits:

http://opinionpublique.wordpress.com/2012/04/22/les-dernieres-intentions-de-vote-des-differents-instituts-a-lheure-des-resultats/

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

lol, Meaux, Coppé's city:

Hollande : 33,03 %
Sarkozy : 26,98 %
Le Pen : 17,72 %
Mélenchon : 10,78 %
Bayrou : 6,79 %

Ipsos on workers vote:

Le Pen 30 %, Hollande 27 %, Sarkozy 18 %, Mélenchon 12 % et Bayrou 8 %.

Makes sense but remains estimatioins and those can stilll vary acorrding to pollster by 1 or 2 points.

And, ah!

The public local radio France Bleu says that in Besson's city MLP did 30%(!).

And lol, Poutou did 1.2% and people in NPA HQ are chanting 'on a gagné!!'...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Weak speech of Hollande, what a contrast with MLP's...

Also Collard (famous lawyer, support of MLP) confirmed what she spoka about a few days before the 1st run, they gonna change the name of FN and try to create a new big 'patriotic' movement. And Bayrou confirmed his will to also create a 'new' force on the Center. If Sarkozy loses, that reallly gonna be hot on the Right. UMP was mainly designed by and for Sarkozy, that'd make sense that, still in case he loses, it sinks with him...

So the new FN as the new centre-right? God help France, vive le parti socialiste then I guess.

Thankfully it's not as if this political system still really mattered and as if all those elections stuffs were still really serious...

But, well, yeah, still matters a bit, and still says something...

Sarkozy speaking now, lol, he seems like in total momentum, he really shouldn't be underestimated. And he just proposed a totally new thing: 3 debates instead of one.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Hollande gave a strong speech, Sarko spoke like a moron. Guess my mind is made up then.

Every mind is. Hollande's was 'grave' (the French word, way to say serious/low pitched). But really missed of dynamism, and quickly went into technical things.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Someone commented on twitter that Hollande's decision to attack FN in his speech was stupid because he will need their votes to defeat Sarkozy.

He'd need a part of them yeah. I read on lemonde.fr that something gives that 5
27% of FN vote would go on Hollande, against Sarkozy I guess. But well, if so, he didn't take a lot of risk by attacking people, anti-sarkozism is something well seeded when it's present in someone...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

What did Hollande say against the FN?

What 'everybody' says against FN in France, which is an other reason why it missed of force...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

1st official poll about report of votes on 2nd run, Ipsos, for what it's worth tonight:

Bayrou's vote:

33% to Holllande
32% to Sarkozy
the rest doesn't know yet

(lol, all of this so MoDem)

MLP's:

60% to Sarkozy
18% to Hollande

92% are sure of their vote for Hollande
89% are sure of their vote for Sarkozy

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

What sort of place is Tremarget in Cotes-d'Armor, I ask because it seems that Joly has won it.

124 people voted there. It's 1) Joly 2) Melenchon 3) Hollande

Côtes d'Armor doesn't seem to be a bad place (...electorally ):

 
Hollande
   
33.0%   
125,333
        
   
Sarkozy
   
23.9%   
90,555
        
   
Le Pen
   
13.6%   
51,559
        
   
Mélenchon
   
12.2%   
46,297
        
   
Bayrou
   
10.6%   
40,240
        
   
Joly
   
2.8%   
10,545
        
   
Dupont-Aignan
   
1.7%
6,494
        
   
Poutou
   
1.3%
5,054
        
   
Arthaud
   
0.7%
2,552
        
   
Cheminade
   
0.2%
909

One could have thought that Trémarget could have been on the seaside though, because people on Côte d'Armor seaside have some reasons to go...Green:


        
   

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

wtf corsica

I just thought that!

Same. I was never under the impression that Corsu was a hotbed of French ultra-nationalist sentiment.

Corsica is one of the place in France in which anti-Muslim racism is one of the toughest and one of the most openly admitted, they must have enjoyed MLP's 'energy'...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Hollande refused the 3 debates.

Dunno if debates can have a big importance in this election, but that's certainly an excercise that could be tough for Hollande against Sarkozy.

What sort of place is Corrèze? It seems really rural, possibly mountainous? Is it considered part of the Massif Central?

Lived there several years while a child. It's definitely part of Massif Central yes, very green, lot of forests, middle mountains, quite rural, slightly conservative, but still rather open minded, something along the rest of Limousin, might be the most rightist département of this région.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Imagine how well Melenchon would be doing right now against a disappointing PS incumbent in the same vein as Zapatero or Socrates who implemented a series of neo-liberal reforms in the midst of a crippling recession...

Hollande's presidency is going to be a disaster to say the least.

Yeah that's what I thought for a while, and why I once posted that no matter who wins doesn't lose (yeah, nobody 'wins' this election, MLP at best, polls kept showing that about 60% of Hollande vote was anti-Sarkozy, only about 30% was by adhesion to Hollande) 'Mélenchon-Montebourg 2017? Beware!'. I personally can't wait to see all those 'glorious brilliant' guys of PS dealing with reality...

That being said, even if I could have been very annoyed by all this PS hypocrisy all along the years, that would still be better to have them instead of Sarkozy on most realms...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Interestingly both Chirac and Hollande were from outside of Corrèze, but made their political bases there. Chirac is from Paris, Hollande from Rouen.

Ah. I remember Chirac was also Mayor of Paris for some time. I'm always amazed by how much of what would here be seen as blatant carpetbagging goes on in Europe.

Yep, he was mayor of Paris and deputy from Corrèze at the same time, as I recall.

That's legal 'the rule' in France

I'm proud of how well Melenchon did. He started out as a gadfly, and it looks like he may do better than Jean-Marie in 2007. Impressive. I'm certain he took some votes from FN as well.

His campaign was almost universally recognized as having been great and the best one, but really the results are low. He didn't even went beyond the traditional score of the French far-left, but as I posted above, he might, or his movement, might still have a future...

What sort of place is Corrèze? It seems really rural, possibly mountainous? Is it considered part of the Massif Central?

Lived there several years while a child. It's definitely part of Massif Central yes, very green, lot of forests, middle mountains, quite rural, slightly conservative, but still rather open minded, something along the rest of Limousin, might be the most rightist département of this région.

So Hollande's from a sort of low-key rural leftist background, culturally? That sounds nice, actually. Too bad he's going to be inheriting and presiding over an absolute sh**tstorm.

lol, no, at all, it's a cute Parisian upper middle class baby.