France 2012: Official Results Thread

[Andrea]

Wallis and Futuna

Hollande 48.28
Sarkozy 37.68
Bayrou 6.40
Le Pen 2.37
Joly 1.56
Melenchon 1.19
Arthad 0.75
Dupont 0.67
Poutou 0.66
Cheminade 0.45

[Andrea]

What sort of place is Tremarget in Cotes-d'Armor, I ask because it seems that Joly has won it.

124 people voted there. It's 1) Joly 2) Melenchon 3) Hollande

[Andrea]

What sort of place is Tremarget in Cotes-d'Armor, I ask because it seems that Joly has won it.

124 people voted there. It's 1) Joly 2) Melenchon 3) Hollande

I think it's this place
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-qAE0VUaP8

[Andrea]

Do urban regions always report last?

They vote until 20:00 while many of the "rural" areas close the polling stations at 18:00. So that's why they report later: they started to count later

[Andrea]

Le Pen has won Gard

MLP 25.51
Sarkozy 24.86
Hollande 24.11
Melenchon 13.23
Bayrou 6.91

[Andrea]

Henin Beaumont

Le Pen 35.48
Hollande 26.82
Sarkozy 15.76
Melenchon 11.98
Bayrou 5.20

[Andrea]

Hollade leads in Esssone by 5 points. Marine at 15%
Sarko led  Yvelines by 7 points with Le Pen at 12%

[Andrea]

Hauts-de-Seine for Sarzoky by 5 points.

So what is remaining?
Paris
Saint Denis
Val d'Oise
Bouches du Rhone
Rhone

Saint Denis should have Hollande comfortably ahead. Delanoe said earlier that Hollande was ahead in Paris with around 60% reported. I would expect Hollande leading in Val d'Oise too.

[Andrea]

Définitif Bouches du Rhône : François Hollande 16.06%, Nicolas Sarkozy 35.20%, Marine Le Pen 23.74

[Andrea]

Le Parisien has the following for Sein Saint Denis
Hollande 38.7
Sarkozy 19.5
Melenchon 17
Le Pen 13.5
Bayrou 6.1

Rhone

Sarkozy: 30.77
Hollande: 26.91
Le Pen: 15.09

[Andrea]

Définitif Bouches du Rhône : François Hollande 16.06%, Nicolas Sarkozy 35.20%, Marine Le Pen 23.74

ok, that wasn't true. It was too bad to be true

Real:
Sarko 27.5 Hollande 24.5 Le Pen 23.4%

[Andrea]

ah, we still miss the French abroad.
Bayrou still have some fans in Taiwan.

[Andrea]

FWIW, here's expats results from 2007
http://www.assemblee-afe.fr/IMG/pdf/PR_tour1_2007_V2.pdf
http://www.assemblee-afe.fr/IMG/pdf/MAE_Resultats_2eme_tour.pdf

Le Figaro reported the aggregate for the new North Europe parliamentary constituency: Sarkozy 33.56% Hollande 32.28%, Bayrou 13.9% Melenchon 7.5% Joly 6.9% Le Pen 3.3%

[Andrea]

Here's expats results by country,sub-area,bureau de vote

http://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/fr/IMG/pdf/Resultats_provisoires_des_votes_des_Francais_etablis_hors_de_France_au_1er_tour_de_l_election_presidentielle_cle83f26f.pdf

There are also totals by new parliamentary constituencies
http://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/fr/les-francais-a-l-etranger/elections-2012-votez-a-l-etranger/election-presidentielle/article/resultats-provisoires-des-votes

[Andrea]

Lot: Hollande 61.89%
Guadalupe: Hollande 71.93%
Martinique: Hollande 68.43%
Nouvelle Caledonie: Sarkozy 63.04%
Guyane: Hollande 62.05%
Polynesie: Sarko 53.26
St Pierre et Miquelon: Hollande 65.3
Wallies et Fatuna: Hollande 56.06
Saint Martin/Saint Barthelemy: Sarkozy 59.43%

[Andrea]

Ariège: Hollande 64.69%

[Andrea]

Over 56% for Hollande in Gers

[Andrea]

52.67% for Hollande in Sarthe.
He takes La Reunion with 71%
53.8% for Sarko in Meause

[Andrea]

52.67% for Hollande in Sarthe.
He takes La Reunion with 71%
53.8% for Sarko in Meause

Do all of these little provincial numbers fit the pattern as it were?  Numbers without patterns are like shoes without socks.

Lozere was 55-45 for Sarko in 2007. Now it's a tie.
Lot had Royal at 56%. Hollande took 61%.
Meuse was won by Sarzo with 56.9% in 2007. Now it's down to 53.8%
Sarthe was 50.5% to 49.5% for Sarkozy. Now it's 52.6% for Hollande

[Andrea]

Cantal
2007 Sarkozy  55.76
2012 Hollande 51.8%

Haute Pyrenees
2007 Royal 57.37
2012 Hollande 62.42%

Eure et Loire
2007 Sarkozy 58.16
2012 Sarkozy 53.47%

Tarn
2007 Royal 50.71%
2012 Hollande 55.55%

Mayenne
2007 Sarkozy 55.45%
2012 Sarkozy 53.07%

Aisne
2007 Sarkozy 53.36$
2012 Hollande 52.4%

[Andrea]

57.85% for Hollande in Hénin-Beaumont

[Andrea]

So are these numbers going to hold at Hollande doing significantly better than the exit polls predicted? Because it looks like the remaining areas aren't that pro-Sarkozy.

!
Western IdF, Côte-d'Azur, Vendée, Alsace, Rhône aren't in yet.

Western IdF: Hollande did big in Hauts-de-Seine in the 1st round

Côte d'Azur: well, yeah, BdR too maybe, even if he did relatively well in the 1st round too

Vendée: Sand ^^

Alsace: ah well, yeah, 'il reste [toujours] une région en haut à droite' ^^

Rhône: is Rhône anything else than Lyon? Grappes don't vote ^^

So, well, Hollande can stille go up.

Public Senat gives Hollande 51.24% Sarkozy 48.76% at the moment with just over 30,000,000 voters reported.
http://www.publicsenat.fr/lcp/politique/carte-des-elections-presidentielles

[Andrea]

^weird, their map is similar to google's but the numbers are very different

I suppose they include municipalities already reported within department not yet finished (but they will add them in the map only when the department has everything counted).

[Andrea]

Ah, Sarkozy's record so far:

Corse-du-Sud:

57,6

This is a victory, and I feel sad.

Keep some sadness for the 10th and 17th of May...

It's june.

And apparently a poll says 31% PS, 30% UMP 18% FN, so I know what I can expect.

Oh yes, sorry, I meant it, is that this PS 'victory' that makes me upside down??!

Oh, and, polls for this wouldn't mean a lot so far, we have to see the rise of this glorious new 'Bleu Marine' movement before, FN doesn't exist anymore.

It's pretty clear how things can go now.

People didn't vote because they like Hollande (and this I can understand), people didn't vote for him because they think he had good ideas, people didn't vote for him because Hollande led the best campaign. Hell, people probably didn't even vote for him because they think Sarkozy is a bad president. They voted for him, barely, because they didn't like Sarkozy. And even then, maybe they just voted Hollande because there's a crisis and they're pissed off at the incumbent.

Whatever will happen now, Hollande begins his term in the worst possible way.

Celebrate at least tonight! You will think about this from tomorrow :-)

[Andrea]

Hollande wins Japon and Cambogie. Sarkozy leads in China
Hollande takes Canada and Sarkozy in USA. I can't recall what they said about South America (Argentina was for Hollande but Sarkozy won something else)