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Author Topic: France presidential election 2012: prediction thread  (Read 4213 times)
big bad fab
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« on: April 21, 2012, 04:37:36 pm »
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As Gael will lock the official thread tomorrow and before the results thread is dutifully active, here is the prediction thread.

And here's mine:

Guys, I've posted on my blog the last graphs by pollster. May be of some interest if you want to try to predict all this stuff.

If you just follow the trends of my Big Bad Tracker, this should be something like this:
Hollande 27.8 -> 28
Sarkozy 27-> 26.5
Le Pen 15.7 -> 16
Mélenchon 13.8 -> 13.5
Bayrou 10.3 -> 10.5
Joly 2.4 -> 2.5
Dupont-Aignan 1.4 -> 1.5
Poutou 1.1 -> 1
Arthaud 0.5 -> 0.5
Cheminade 0.1 -> 0


Now, I've tried to add effects from poll and media momentum, mobilization, electoral sociology and its consequences on turnout, tactical vote in a "useful" way. And it gives me my personal prediction:
Sarkozy 27.6
Hollande 26.7
Le Pen 14.8
Mélenchon 13.8
Bayrou 9.6
Dupont-Aignan 2.5
Poutou 2.1
Joly 1.9
Arthaud 0.8
Cheminade 0.2


Of course, I'll be completely wrong, as usual when it's about French elections Tongue
« Last Edit: April 25, 2012, 04:11:56 pm by big bad fab »Logged

Enjoy the French elections !
Enjoy polling analysis !
Enjoy my tracker !

http://sondages2012.wordpress.com/
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« Reply #1 on: April 21, 2012, 04:42:21 pm »
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Hollande 29
Sarkozy 28
Mélenchon 14
Le Pen 13
Bayrou 10
Joly 2
Dupont-Aignan >1
Poutou >1
Arthaud 1<
Cheminade 1<

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« Reply #2 on: April 21, 2012, 05:32:23 pm »
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28
27
14

Le-Pen in 4th, Hollande in 2nd by a hair
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« Reply #3 on: April 21, 2012, 05:41:34 pm »
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Hollande 28.1
Sarkozy 24.8
LePen 15.8
Melenchon 15
Bayrou 10.1
Joly 2.8
Dupont-Aignan 1.7
Poutou 0.9
Arthaud 0.7
Cheminade 0.1
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« Reply #4 on: April 21, 2012, 06:12:08 pm »
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Hollande 28
Sarkozy 27
LePen 15
Melenchon 14
Bayrou 10
Joly 3
Dupont-Aignan 2
Poutou 1
Arthaud 0
Cheminade 0
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Antonio V
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« Reply #5 on: April 21, 2012, 06:15:36 pm »
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If anyone is interested in making predictions, here's a few data you might want to know.

Final poll of all eight polling firms :

CandidateTNSIFOPIPSOSHarrisCSABVALH2OW
Hollande27272927.528302727.5
Sarkozy272725.526.52526.526.527.5
Le Pen17161616161415.516
Mélenchon1313.5141214.5141513
Bayrou1010.5101110.5101010
Joly3323222.52
Dupont-Ai.21.51.521.521.51.5
Poutou111.51.51.51.512
Arthaud00.500.51010.5
Cheminade000.500000

Except LH2 and OpinionWay, all have polled in the latest possible days.


And here's a little compilation of statistical data (Fab's last tracker results, the average and median of the above poll, the best and worst poll result for each candidate). The second column is probably the most useful guide.

CandidateTrackerAverageMedianMinimumMaximum
Hollande27.827.927.52730
Sarkozy2726.426.52527.5
Le Pen15.715.8161417
Mélenchon13.813.613.71215
Bayrou10.310.3101011
Joly2.42.42.323
Dupont-Ai.1.41.71.51.52
Poutou11.41.512
Arthaud0.50.40.501
Cheminade0.10.1000.5

I'll do mine tomorrow, though I already have quite precise ideas.
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



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« Reply #6 on: April 21, 2012, 07:50:24 pm »
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Sarkozy 27
Hollande 23.4
Melenchon 18
Marine Le Pen 13.5
Bayrou 11
Joly 3
Dupont-Aignan 2
Poutou 1
Arthaud 1
Cheminade 0.1
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Fidelix 28
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« Reply #7 on: April 21, 2012, 08:23:42 pm »
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Poison DwarfSarkozy 26.3
Hollande 25.9
Panzergirl 15.5
Melenchon 12.9
Bayrou 11.6
Joly 4.2
Dupont-Aignan 2.1
Poutou 0.8
Arthaud 0.6
Cheminade 0.1

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Pope Kalwejt I of Northeast
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« Reply #8 on: April 22, 2012, 03:10:08 am »
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Obviously, the major Polish newspaper believes this will repeat today, lol.
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« Reply #9 on: April 22, 2012, 03:41:47 am »
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Near tie between the lead weights.
Le Pen to be ahead of Melenchon. Sad
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« Reply #10 on: April 22, 2012, 03:44:31 am »
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Hollande 28
Sarkozy 26,5
Melenchon 14,1
LePen 14
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Antonio V
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« Reply #11 on: April 22, 2012, 04:18:51 am »
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OK, time for mine ! Cheesy I'll do my best, even though I'm usually not very good at making predictions. I'll give decimals (which I'm probably pulling out of my ass and have absolutely no value, but it's fun). So, here it is :


Hollande : 27.1% Despite a very slight favorable momentum, Fab has highlighted his demographic problems which might undermine turnout of his electorate. The fact he is the overwhelming favorite certainly doesn't help matters.

Sarkozy : 26.4% The downward trend seems pretty strong in the latest polls, it has probably continued in the final days. This is just compensated, but not reversed, by his demographic advantage.

Le Pen : 15.3% She seems to be estimated pretty correctly by pollsters, but I still suspect a certain overestimation. Her later trend might be positive, but I feel like many of her voters will eventually back Sarko or simply abstain.

Mélenchon : 13.2% He has an unfavorable trend which likely has continued, but overall his electorate is very motivated, so I doubt he will underperform that much.

Bayrou : 9.8% He's stable in the final period, but I think he will suffer from a significant voter demobilization. He has highly disappointed voters in these past months, he has been utterly inaudible recently, and his electorate is the most hesitating. That's why I think he'll eventually finish below 10%, a huge blow for him.

Joly : 2.9% Actually, she might be benefitting from a very late momentum, making here closer to 3 than to 2%. Maybe a late wave of compassion or an attempt by some voters to protect the greens from getting destroyed ? Anyways, not a big factor, but that's my gut feeling.

Dupont-Aignan : 2.4% He was experiencing a mini-surge in the last polls, which has probably been even stronger in these final days. Small candidates generally tend to overperform, so this might very well be the case here.

Poutou : 2.1% Same as for Dupont-Aignan, probably an even bigger momentum.

Arthaud : 0.6% She's as charismatic as a wet pizza, crazy as hell and gave no serious reason to vote for her... but she's a small candidate, so she will probably overperform a bit.

Cheminade : 0.2% This is a bad year for useless loons, so he might very well do even worse than in 1995. Maybe I'm wrong though... After all, he predicted the 2008 crisis, remember ! Tongue


Let's see how this ends up ! Smiley
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

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« Reply #12 on: April 22, 2012, 05:06:19 am »
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Hollande 27.5
Sarkozy 27.4
Le Pen 15.6
Melenchon 13.4
Bayrou 10.3
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PASOK Leader Hashemite
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« Reply #13 on: April 22, 2012, 07:46:30 am »

Hollande ahead of Sarko, Marion in third, Melenchon strong but not phenomenally so, Bayrou at or a bit below 10%, my candidate crushed, NDA fairly good.
« Last Edit: April 22, 2012, 08:10:31 am by Sharif Hashemite »Logged

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« Reply #14 on: April 22, 2012, 08:23:04 am »
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Melenchon 57
Le Pen 18
Poutou 17
Hollande 4
Sarkozy 3
others <1
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« Reply #15 on: April 22, 2012, 08:43:36 am »
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Sarkozy 27
Hollande 26
Melenchon 16
Marine Le Pen 16
Bayrou 10
Joly 3
Dupont-Aignan 1,5
Poutou 1
Arthaud 0,7
Cheminade 0.1
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Pope Kalwejt I of Northeast
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« Reply #16 on: April 22, 2012, 09:48:03 am »
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Go troll elsewhere, Tweed.
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« Reply #17 on: April 22, 2012, 10:05:01 am »
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27 Hollande
26.5 Sarko
18.5 Le Pen
13 Melenchon
9 Bayrou
3 Joly
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President John Hay
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« Reply #18 on: April 22, 2012, 10:14:57 am »
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I have tried to read up on this lately... I am no expert but I would guess something along the lines of-

29 Sarkozy
26 Hollande
19 Le Pen
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« Reply #19 on: April 22, 2012, 10:18:36 am »
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I'm gonna make a bold one:

Hollande: 30,1%
Sarkozy: 26,8%
Le Pen: 16,3%
Melenchon: 14,7%
Bayrou: 9,2%

The rest are irrelevant.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #20 on: April 22, 2012, 11:04:18 am »
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You may be fair right, Swedish, as tunrout and leaked numbers are bad for Sarkozy and good for Hollande... Sad
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Enjoy the French elections !
Enjoy polling analysis !
Enjoy my tracker !

http://sondages2012.wordpress.com/
big bad fab
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« Reply #21 on: April 23, 2012, 04:57:33 pm »
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Hash hasn't reopened the official thread, so I'm posting here just to tell you that I've published a tracker on vote transfers (reports de voix) on my blog Grin

So you can make your own calculations...

Of course, today's Big Bad Tracker is also published !
55.11 / 44.89

With polling datas on vote transfers, applied to real results:
54.59 / 45.41


And daily IFOP has a first 55 / 45 this week.
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Enjoy the French elections !
Enjoy polling analysis !
Enjoy my tracker !

http://sondages2012.wordpress.com/
You kip if you want to...
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« Reply #22 on: April 23, 2012, 05:19:40 pm »
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27 Hollande
26.5 Sarko
18.5 Le Pen
13 Melenchon
9 Bayrou
3 Joly

28.5
27
18
11
9
2

Pas mal.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #23 on: April 23, 2012, 06:21:58 pm »
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27 Hollande
26.5 Sarko
18.5 Le Pen
13 Melenchon
9 Bayrou
3 Joly

28.5
27
18
11
9
2

Pas mal.

Yeah, quite.

As for me, I was definitely too conservative in my prediction and failed to grasp any of the major trends at their real level. Though, at least, I didn't put Sarko ahead. Grin
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
You kip if you want to...
change08
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« Reply #24 on: April 23, 2012, 06:33:02 pm »
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27 Hollande
26.5 Sarko
18.5 Le Pen
13 Melenchon
9 Bayrou
3 Joly

28.5
27
18
11
9
2

Pas mal.

Yeah, quite.

As for me, I was definitely too conservative in my prediction and failed to grasp any of the major trends at their real level. Though, at least, I didn't put Sarko ahead. Grin

Don't understand why anyone with even a passing interest in the presidentielles would! Tongue
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