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Author Topic: France presidential election 2012: prediction thread  (Read 6902 times)
big bad fab
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« Reply #25 on: April 24, 2012, 02:30:54 pm »
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27 Hollande
26.5 Sarko
18.5 Le Pen
13 Melenchon
9 Bayrou
3 Joly

28.5
27
18
11
9
2

Pas mal.

Yeah, quite.

As for me, I was definitely too conservative in my prediction and failed to grasp any of the major trends at their real level. Though, at least, I didn't put Sarko ahead. Grin

GO TO HELL ! Grin

At least, my tracker was right, though I didn't evcen trust it Tongue
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Jante's Law Revivalist
Antonio V
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« Reply #26 on: April 25, 2012, 12:07:35 pm »
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Anyways, here are the updated charts. I added the results to the 1st round tracker.



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big bad fab
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« Reply #27 on: April 25, 2012, 04:11:24 pm »
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Maybe you can re-post these graphs in the Official Thread, Hash has just unlocked it Wink

And add another point on the graph for the tracker with vote transfers ? As you wish...
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Antonio V
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« Reply #28 on: April 26, 2012, 11:01:27 am »
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Final results, for the record :

Hollande 28.6
Sarkozy 27.2
Le Pen 17.9
Mélenchon 11.1
Bayrou 9.1
Joly 2.3
Dupont-Aignan 1.8
Poutou 1.1
Arthaud 0.6
Cheminade 0.2


And here's the over-underperformance of candidates compared to several indicators.

Fab's tracker :

Hollande : +0.8
Sarkozy : +0.2
Le Pen : +2.2

Mélenchon : -2.7
Bayrou : -1.2
Joly : -0.1

Dupont-Aignan : +0.4
Poutou : +0.1

Arthaud : =
Cheminade : +0.2

Overall deviation : 7.9 pts


Polling average :

Hollande : +0.8
Sarkozy : +0.7
Le Pen : +2.1

Mélenchon : -2.5
Bayrou : -1.1
Joly : -0.1

Dupont-Aignan : +0.1
Poutou : -0.2
Arthaud : +0.1
Cheminade : +0.2


Overall deviation : 7.9 pts Grin


Last TNS-Sofres poll :

Hollande : +1.6
Sarkozy : +0.2
Le Pen : +0.9
Mélenchon : -1.9
Bayrou : -0.9
Joly : -0.7
Dupont-Aignan : -0.2
Poutou : +0.1
Arthaud : +0.6
Cheminade : +0.2

Overall deviation : 7.3 pts


Last IFOP poll :

Hollande : +1.6
Sarkozy : +0.2
Le Pen : +1.9
Mélenchon : -2.4
Bayrou : -1.4
Joly : -0.7
Dupont-Aignan : +0.3
Poutou : +0.1
Arthaud : +0.1
Cheminade : +0.2

Overall deviation : 8.9 pts


Last IPSOS poll :

Hollande : -0.4
Sarkozy : +1.7
Le Pen : +1.9
Mélenchon : -2.9
Bayrou : -0.9
Joly : +0.3
Dupont-Aignan : +0.3
Poutou : -0.4
Arthaud : +0.6
Cheminade : -0.3

Overall deviation : 9.7 pts


Last Harris poll :

Hollande : +1.1
Sarkozy : +0.7
Le Pen : +1.9
Mélenchon : -0.9
Bayrou : -1.9
Joly : -0.7
Dupont-Aignan : -0.2
Poutou : -0.4
Arthaud : +0.1
Cheminade : +0.2

Overall deviation : 8.1 pts


Last CSA poll :

Hollande : +0.6
Sarkozy : +2.2
Le Pen : +1.9
Mélenchon : -3.4
Bayrou : -1.4
Joly : +0.3
Dupont-Aignan : +0.3
Poutou : -0.4
Arthaud : -0.4
Cheminade : +0.2

Overall deviation : 11.1 pts


Last BVA poll :

Hollande : -1.4
Sarkozy : +0.7
Le Pen : +3.9
Mélenchon : -2.9
Bayrou : -0.9
Joly : +0.3
Dupont-Aignan : -0.2
Poutou : -0.4
Arthaud : +0.6
Cheminade : +0.2

Overall deviation : 11.5 pts


Last LH2 poll :

Hollande : +1.6
Sarkozy : +0.7
Le Pen : +2.4
Mélenchon : -3.9
Bayrou : -0.9
Joly : -0.2
Dupont-Aignan : +0.3
Poutou : +0.1
Arthaud : -0.4
Cheminade : +0.2

Overall deviation : 10.7 pts


Last OpinionWay poll :

Hollande : +1.1
Sarkozy : -0.3
Le Pen : +1.9
Mélenchon : -1.9
Bayrou : -0.9
Joly : +0.3
Dupont-Aignan : +0.3
Poutou : -0.9
Arthaud : +0.1
Cheminade : +0.2

Overall deviation : 7.9 pts


Best pollster by candidate :
- Hollande : IPSOS
- Sarkozy : TNS and IFOP
- Le Pen : TNS
- Mélenchon : Harris
- Bayrou : 5-way tie
- Joly : LH2


Next step will be rating the predictions. Wink
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big bad fab
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« Reply #29 on: April 26, 2012, 05:40:44 pm »
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On my blog, I've also calculated totals of spreads (or deviations) for each candidate BUT in a ratio with the result of each candidate: a "mistake" of 0.5 point isn't very important for Hollande, for example.

Harris has published the best last poll, in fact: good order, quite fine results and, especially, least bad numbers on Le Pen and Mélenchon.

For me, it's a surprising winner, rather than TNS-Sofres, OpinionWay, IFOP and IPSOS, though they have done quite well, but each with something wrong. But Harris was already the best for the PS primary... keep that in mind for the next years to come...

CSA, LH2 and BVA were clearly less good than the others.
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« Reply #30 on: April 26, 2012, 07:58:52 pm »
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who bet for a 55-45 ?

is de gaulle's record would be beat ?
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« Reply #31 on: April 26, 2012, 08:10:59 pm »
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One of the very few good things I can see from these results is that at least Melenchon underperformed. He's easily the most horrible of the 5 main candidates.
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« Reply #32 on: April 27, 2012, 04:32:05 am »
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Hollande: 53%
Sarkozy: 47%
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« Reply #33 on: April 27, 2012, 05:16:45 am »
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One of the very few good things I can see from these results is that at least Melenchon underperformed.

Only compared to the final few weeks of polling. His result was considerably better than would have seemed sane to predict last year and was the best for a Commie candidate since 1981.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #34 on: May 03, 2012, 06:52:20 pm »
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BUMP

This thread can welcome any discussion on Sarkozy's reelection or Hollande's greatness...
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« Reply #35 on: May 03, 2012, 08:16:45 pm »
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52 H
48 S
More extreme right wingers reluctantly vote for Sarkozy, more centrists vote for Hollande. Since there are more of the former, Hollande underperfoms the current polls.
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« Reply #36 on: May 03, 2012, 08:38:45 pm »
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Hollande 52.5
Sarkozy 47.5
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« Reply #37 on: May 03, 2012, 08:47:13 pm »
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50.6% Sarkozy
49.4% Hollande
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« Reply #38 on: May 03, 2012, 10:46:16 pm »
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51.5% Hollande
48.5% Sarkozy

Narrows somewhat as Le Pen voter break easier for Sarko, but Hollande eeks out a victory.
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« Reply #39 on: May 03, 2012, 11:34:42 pm »
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Hollande-53%
Sarkozy-46%

I think given the trajectory of this thing that Hollande will likely win Sunday. However, given that alot of surprises have happened so far I wouldn't rule out a Sarkozy win. Ex. it wasn't originally projected that Le Pen would even break 15% but she managed to take nearly 21%. Wouldn't be surprised if these right-wing voters choose to tolerate Sarkozy over someone like Hollande.
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« Reply #40 on: May 04, 2012, 02:53:35 am »
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hollande 52-48 sarkozy
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« Reply #41 on: May 04, 2012, 03:48:31 am »
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Hollande-53%
Sarkozy-46%

I think given the trajectory of this thing that Hollande will likely win Sunday. However, given that alot of surprises have happened so far I wouldn't rule out a Sarkozy win. Ex. it wasn't originally projected that Le Pen would even break 15% but she managed to take nearly 21%. Wouldn't be surprised if these right-wing voters choose to tolerate Sarkozy over someone like Hollande.
LOLWUT
Le Pen got 17%...
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« Reply #42 on: May 04, 2012, 05:54:49 am »
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who bet for a 55-45 ?

is de gaulle's record would be beat ?

De Gaulle's didn't set the record. If someone did, it's Pompidou in 1969 (winning 57.5% to Poher's 42.4%).

(Naturally, we're talking about two mainstream candidates in a runoff, which rules out any comparisons to 2002).
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« Reply #43 on: May 04, 2012, 06:32:23 am »
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Hollande-53%
Sarkozy-46%

I think given the trajectory of this thing that Hollande will likely win Sunday. However, given that alot of surprises have happened so far I wouldn't rule out a Sarkozy win. Ex. it wasn't originally projected that Le Pen would even break 15% but she managed to take nearly 21%. Wouldn't be surprised if these right-wing voters choose to tolerate Sarkozy over someone like Hollande.
LOLWUT
Le Pen got 17%...

And where is that extra 1% going...
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« Reply #44 on: May 04, 2012, 07:19:21 am »
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who bet for a 55-45 ?

is de gaulle's record would be beat ?

De Gaulle's didn't set the record. If someone did, it's Pompidou in 1969 (winning 57.5% to Poher's 42.4%).

(Naturally, we're talking about two mainstream candidates in a runoff, which rules out any comparisons to 2002).




dindn't count : left people dont vote a lot between centre-right and right candidate
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« Reply #45 on: May 04, 2012, 09:08:53 am »
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Hollande-53%
Sarkozy-46%

I think given the trajectory of this thing that Hollande will likely win Sunday. However, given that alot of surprises have happened so far I wouldn't rule out a Sarkozy win. Ex. it wasn't originally projected that Le Pen would even break 15% but she managed to take nearly 21%. Wouldn't be surprised if these right-wing voters choose to tolerate Sarkozy over someone like Hollande.
LOLWUT
Le Pen got 17%...

My mistake I thought it was actually 21%.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #46 on: May 04, 2012, 05:12:41 pm »
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From the official thread:

BREAKING NEWS !
2012 Big Bad Tracker #55 - 4 May 2012   



My very last tracker !!! Tongue      

With raw datas :
Hollande 52.95
Sarkozy 47.05

With vote transfers datas applied to real first round results:
Hollande 52.97
Sarkozy 47.03

No, I haven't cheated.

Simple average of all the last polls of each pollster, without weighting: 52.75 / 47.25
Weighted average of all the last polls of each pollster: 52.70 / 47.30



And my own prediction: Hollande 52.2 / Sarkozy 47.8
« Last Edit: May 04, 2012, 06:59:28 pm by big bad fab »Logged

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Marokai Backbeat
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« Reply #47 on: May 04, 2012, 07:43:45 pm »
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I'll go on a more pessimistic note and say:

Hollande, 50.9%
Sarkozy, 49.1%
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #48 on: May 04, 2012, 09:59:11 pm »
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Hollande: 51.35%
Sarkozy: 48.65%
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« Reply #49 on: May 04, 2012, 10:38:52 pm »
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I will go a bit optimistic. Polls will boost pro-Hollande turnout and result will be:
Hollande: 53.65%
Sarkozy: 46.35%
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