France presidential election 2012: prediction thread

[Antonio the Sixth]

If anyone is interested in making predictions, here's a few data you might want to know.

Final poll of all eight polling firms :

Candidate	TNS	IFOP	IPSOS	Harris	CSA	BVA	LH2	OW
Hollande	27	27	29	27.5	28	30	27	27.5
Sarkozy	27	27	25.5	26.5	25	26.5	26.5	27.5
Le Pen	17	16	16	16	16	14	15.5	16
Mélenchon	13	13.5	14	12	14.5	14	15	13
Bayrou	10	10.5	10	11	10.5	10	10	10
Joly	3	3	2	3	2	2	2.5	2
Dupont-Ai.	2	1.5	1.5	2	1.5	2	1.5	1.5
Poutou	1	1	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	1	2
Arthaud	0	0.5	0	0.5	1	0	1	0.5
Cheminade	0	0	0.5	0	0	0	0	0

Except LH2 and OpinionWay, all have polled in the latest possible days.


And here's a little compilation of statistical data (Fab's last tracker results, the average and median of the above poll, the best and worst poll result for each candidate). The second column is probably the most useful guide.

Candidate	Tracker	Average	Median	Minimum	Maximum
Hollande	27.8	27.9	27.5	27	30
Sarkozy	27	26.4	26.5	25	27.5
Le Pen	15.7	15.8	16	14	17
Mélenchon	13.8	13.6	13.7	12	15
Bayrou	10.3	10.3	10	10	11
Joly	2.4	2.4	2.3	2	3
Dupont-Ai.	1.4	1.7	1.5	1.5	2
Poutou	1	1.4	1.5	1	2
Arthaud	0.5	0.4	0.5	0	1
Cheminade	0.1	0.1	0	0	0.5

I'll do mine tomorrow, though I already have quite precise ideas.

[Antonio the Sixth]

OK, time for mine ! I'll do my best, even though I'm usually not very good at making predictions. I'll give decimals (which I'm probably pulling out of my ass and have absolutely no value, but it's fun). So, here it is :


Hollande : 27.1% Despite a very slight favorable momentum, Fab has highlighted his demographic problems which might undermine turnout of his electorate. The fact he is the overwhelming favorite certainly doesn't help matters.

Sarkozy : 26.4% The downward trend seems pretty strong in the latest polls, it has probably continued in the final days. This is just compensated, but not reversed, by his demographic advantage.

Le Pen : 15.3% She seems to be estimated pretty correctly by pollsters, but I still suspect a certain overestimation. Her later trend might be positive, but I feel like many of her voters will eventually back Sarko or simply abstain.

Mélenchon : 13.2% He has an unfavorable trend which likely has continued, but overall his electorate is very motivated, so I doubt he will underperform that much.

Bayrou : 9.8% He's stable in the final period, but I think he will suffer from a significant voter demobilization. He has highly disappointed voters in these past months, he has been utterly inaudible recently, and his electorate is the most hesitating. That's why I think he'll eventually finish below 10%, a huge blow for him.

Joly : 2.9% Actually, she might be benefitting from a very late momentum, making here closer to 3 than to 2%. Maybe a late wave of compassion or an attempt by some voters to protect the greens from getting destroyed ? Anyways, not a big factor, but that's my gut feeling.

Dupont-Aignan : 2.4% He was experiencing a mini-surge in the last polls, which has probably been even stronger in these final days. Small candidates generally tend to overperform, so this might very well be the case here.

Poutou : 2.1% Same as for Dupont-Aignan, probably an even bigger momentum.

Arthaud : 0.6% She's as charismatic as a wet pizza, crazy as hell and gave no serious reason to vote for her... but she's a small candidate, so she will probably overperform a bit.

Cheminade : 0.2% This is a bad year for useless loons, so he might very well do even worse than in 1995. Maybe I'm wrong though... After all, he predicted the 2008 crisis, remember !


Let's see how this ends up !

[Antonio the Sixth]

27 Hollande
26.5 Sarko
18.5 Le Pen
13 Melenchon
9 Bayrou
3 Joly

28.5
27
18
11
9
2

Pas mal.

Yeah, quite.

As for me, I was definitely too conservative in my prediction and failed to grasp any of the major trends at their real level. Though, at least, I didn't put Sarko ahead.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Anyways, here are the updated charts. I added the results to the 1st round tracker.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Final results, for the record :

Hollande 28.6
Sarkozy 27.2
Le Pen 17.9
Mélenchon 11.1
Bayrou 9.1
Joly 2.3
Dupont-Aignan 1.8
Poutou 1.1
Arthaud 0.6
Cheminade 0.2


And here's the over-underperformance of candidates compared to several indicators.

Fab's tracker :

Hollande : +0.8
Sarkozy : +0.2
Le Pen : +2.2
Mélenchon : -2.7
Bayrou : -1.2
Joly : -0.1
Dupont-Aignan : +0.4
Poutou : +0.1
Arthaud : =
Cheminade : +0.2

Overall deviation : 7.9 pts


Polling average :

Hollande : +0.8
Sarkozy : +0.7
Le Pen : +2.1
Mélenchon : -2.5
Bayrou : -1.1
Joly : -0.1
Dupont-Aignan : +0.1
Poutou : -0.2
Arthaud : +0.1
Cheminade : +0.2

Overall deviation : 7.9 pts


Last TNS-Sofres poll :

Hollande : +1.6
Sarkozy : +0.2
Le Pen : +0.9
Mélenchon : -1.9
Bayrou : -0.9
Joly : -0.7
Dupont-Aignan : -0.2
Poutou : +0.1
Arthaud : +0.6
Cheminade : +0.2

Overall deviation : 7.3 pts


Last IFOP poll :

Hollande : +1.6
Sarkozy : +0.2
Le Pen : +1.9
Mélenchon : -2.4
Bayrou : -1.4
Joly : -0.7
Dupont-Aignan : +0.3
Poutou : +0.1
Arthaud : +0.1
Cheminade : +0.2

Overall deviation : 8.9 pts


Last IPSOS poll :

Hollande : -0.4
Sarkozy : +1.7
Le Pen : +1.9
Mélenchon : -2.9
Bayrou : -0.9
Joly : +0.3
Dupont-Aignan : +0.3
Poutou : -0.4
Arthaud : +0.6
Cheminade : -0.3

Overall deviation : 9.7 pts


Last Harris poll :

Hollande : +1.1
Sarkozy : +0.7
Le Pen : +1.9
Mélenchon : -0.9
Bayrou : -1.9
Joly : -0.7
Dupont-Aignan : -0.2
Poutou : -0.4
Arthaud : +0.1
Cheminade : +0.2

Overall deviation : 8.1 pts


Last CSA poll :

Hollande : +0.6
Sarkozy : +2.2
Le Pen : +1.9
Mélenchon : -3.4
Bayrou : -1.4
Joly : +0.3
Dupont-Aignan : +0.3
Poutou : -0.4
Arthaud : -0.4
Cheminade : +0.2

Overall deviation : 11.1 pts


Last BVA poll :

Hollande : -1.4
Sarkozy : +0.7
Le Pen : +3.9
Mélenchon : -2.9
Bayrou : -0.9
Joly : +0.3
Dupont-Aignan : -0.2
Poutou : -0.4
Arthaud : +0.6
Cheminade : +0.2

Overall deviation : 11.5 pts


Last LH2 poll :

Hollande : +1.6
Sarkozy : +0.7
Le Pen : +2.4
Mélenchon : -3.9
Bayrou : -0.9
Joly : -0.2
Dupont-Aignan : +0.3
Poutou : +0.1
Arthaud : -0.4
Cheminade : +0.2

Overall deviation : 10.7 pts


Last OpinionWay poll :

Hollande : +1.1
Sarkozy : -0.3
Le Pen : +1.9
Mélenchon : -1.9
Bayrou : -0.9
Joly : +0.3
Dupont-Aignan : +0.3
Poutou : -0.9
Arthaud : +0.1
Cheminade : +0.2

Overall deviation : 7.9 pts


Best pollster by candidate :
- Hollande : IPSOS
- Sarkozy : TNS and IFOP
- Le Pen : TNS
- Mélenchon : Harris
- Bayrou : 5-way tie
- Joly : LH2


Next step will be rating the predictions.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I won't make a real prediction, but the over/under line seems to be 52.5/47.5 at this point. I still want to believe that people won't get too stupid, that left-wingers will not think that victory is inevitable and will mobilize massively to finally kick Sarko out.