Pennsylvania: An analysis.

[J. J.]

Who wins Centre?

Paul will do "well" because of Penn State, Romney will win the affluent voters around State College but there's no reason why Santorum shouldn't run up big numbers there. He'll get delegates out of the area, too, since popular and powerful State Senator Corman is on Rick's side and running for delegate (Santorum got his start in politics by interning for Corman's Dad).

It's a closed primary, and there are not huge amount of Republican students, so I don't think Paul will do that well.  Outside of the University there is a very large element of Evangelicals in the county.  The former Republican district attorney went to Bob Jones University.  I don't think that the Catholic population is large.  The affluent voters around State College are probably more Democratic proportionally.

That all tells me that it will be a good county for Santorum.

Corman is very well known, so I'd expect that to be a Santorum delegate elected from the district.  A Corman has been holding the Senate seat there since I was in college.

I'm agreeing with Phil, but more so.

[Keystone Phil]

Congressman Fitzpatrick endorses Romney. Not surprising considering his district but somewhat surprising considering his relationship with Santorum: when Jim Greenwood dropped out in 2004, Santorum (and Melissa Hart) wrote to GOP leaders in the district on Fitz's behalf for the appointment.

[Chareth Cutestory]

As an aside (if anyone is willing), can my new Representative be explained to me a little? It is the one and only Chaka Fattah. I remember hearing tidbits here and there but don't know him all that well. And I guess maybe analyze the results of District 2?

[Keystone Phil]

Feel free to message me privately for my comments.

[J. J.]

As an aside (if anyone is willing), can my new Representative be explained to me a little? It is the one and only Chaka Fattah. I remember hearing tidbits here and there but don't know him all that well. And I guess maybe analyze the results of District 2?

I would call him a post civil rights movement style traditional African American Democrat.

[Keystone Phil]

A friend claimed to have received two Romney robo calls already, hitting Rick for his 2004 support of Santorum. The call apparently even plays the audio from Santorum's ad where he endorsed Specter.

[So the Heroes Fall]

This is actually pretty effective if you still really care about Arlen Specter and something that happened 8 years ago (how many are in that category I do not know): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vpCE1lsQ8is

[Senator Snowstalker]

Phil, is there any bad blood between Pat and Rick over 2004? A Toomey endorsement could be critical in the state.

[Senator X]

A friend claimed to have received two Romney robo calls already, hitting Rick for his 2004 support of Santorum. The call apparently even plays the audio from Santorum's ad where he endorsed Specter.

I didn't know Santorum was up that year

[Keystone Phil]

Phil, is there any bad blood between Pat and Rick over 2004? A Toomey endorsement could be critical in the state.

They aren't best buds but Toomey did go out of his way to help Rick in 2006. That being said, I still think there is some friction but probably enough respect not to endorse Romney (if he plans on doing that) before PA.

[Keystone Phil]

With PA next, I wanted to dive into analysis of the suburbs but wanted to call further attention to the fight in Philly since a lot of people have done some eye rolling at my comments about Philly being good for Rick.

When you can, check out analyzethevote.com/map. That's the new and totally awesome (for political nerds) website out together by our new Commissioners. It's been a very long time coming! Anyway, this feature will allow people to see how heavily concentrated the GOP vote is in the NE, South Philly and Roxborough (Northwest). Those areas only have 18 of our 66 Wards but that's where the Republican vote power lies and with the exception of maybe Roxborough and a Ward or two in the NE, that's where Santorum will run up nice margins. Mitt will still benefit from the Center City Wards and their high raw number of Republicans but, as you'll see, that won't match the other areas. He will need to make serious inroads in the NE and South Philly and really turn out the vote downtown to have a chance of taking the city.

Anyway, enjoy the feature and stay tuned for my suburban ramblings.

[ModerateCoward]

Not looking good for Rick, and I don't think he can firebomb the state to save it.

[Keystone Phil]

For whatever it is worth, the old guard city party here in Philly put Romney on their sample ballot. I'll withhold additional comment.

[Erc]

For kicks, the actual elected delegates:

CD 1

Taxin, Marion [ROMNEY?] {Delaware/Philly} (2008 alternate)  
Vogler, Christopher [ROMNEY?] {Delaware/Philly}
Boggia, Tom [PAUL]

CD 2 (Vote for 3)

Tucker, Calvin
Harris, Lewis {Philly/Montco}
Vogler, Walter

CD 3 (Vote for 3)

English, Philip [ROMNEY]
Mustello, Michele (2004 alternate)
Metcalfe, Daryl (State Rep.)

CD 4 (Vote for 4)

Wingert, Lisa
Gerow, Charlie [GINGRICH]
Gillispie, Marilyn (2008 delegate)
Bair, Barbara

CD 5 (Vote for 3)

Martin, Tom
Haas, Joyce [SANTORUM]
Brown, Thomas [PAUL]

CD 6 (Vote for 3)

Schroder, Curt (State Rep.)
Costello, Ryan
Gerlach, Jim [ROMNEY]

CD 7 (Vote for 4)

Willert, Robert [ROMNEY?] {Delaware}
Lewis, Andy [ROMNEY?] {Delaware}
Booker, Patricia [ROMNEY?] {Delaware}
Puppio, Michael [ROMNEY?] {Delaware} (2008 Delegate)

CD 8 (Vote for 4)

DiGirolamo, Joe {Bucks}
Loughery, Robert {Bucks}
Poprik, Patricia (2008 delegate) {Bucks}
O'Neill, Bernie (State Rep.) {Bucks}

CD 9 (Vote for 3)

Shuster, Bill [ROMNEY]
Thomas, Bob (2008 delegate)
Hess, Dick (State Rep.)

CD 10 (Vote for 3)

Harris, Mark [DISTRICT WINNER: Romney]
Sides, Carol
Saylor, Pat (2008 Delegate)

CD 11 (Vote for 3)

Evans, Kathy
Haste, Jeff
Piccola, Jeff (State Senator)

CD 12 (Vote for 4)

Wilson, Ann
Cooper, Jill
Gleason, Jane [SANTORUM]
Turzai, Lidia (2008 delegate)

CD 13 (Vote for 3)

Donnelly, William
McMonagle, Michael (2008 delegate)
Ellis, Thomas

CD 14 (Vote for 3)

Meloy, Mary
Roddey, James [ROMNEY]
Haluszczak, Melissa

CD 15 (Vote for 3)

Smith, Robert (2008 alternate)
Browne, Pat [SANTORUM]
Eckhart, Glenn

CD 16 (Vote for 3)

Brubaker, Michael [DISTRICT WINNER: Romney] {Lancaster}
Walker, Robert [GINGRICH]
Womble, Ann [DISTRICT WINNER: Romney] {Lancaster}

CD 17 (Vote for 3)

Antonello, Anthony [PAUL]
Thomas, Scott
Dougherty, Mary Beth [GINGRICH]

CD 18 (Vote for 4)

Means, Sue
Dougherty, Brian
Silvis, Mary Jo (2008 delegate)
Wells, Jay