I think it's probably a good poll. Arizona is absolutely in play. Politically it is actually very similar to Colorado, so I'm not surprised. I don't think Obama will win it, as I don't think he'll win Colorado, but it shows how competitive the region really is.
Truth be told, Obama may hit jackpot in the midwest this year as the Democratic Party goes 1996. Who knows?
Does winning Indiana in 2008 say that President Obama hit the jackpot in the Midwest? The last Democratic nominee to do that well or better in the Midwest was LBJ, who won a bunch of states (Alaska, Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, the Dakotas, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma) that have not yet gone for any Democratic nominee. Indiana and Virginia used to be in that category... whoops!
...If President wins everything that he won in 2008 he gets 359 electoral votes. If he adds Missouri and Arizona as well he ends up with 380. To get to the 390s he needs Georgia. I just can't see him winning Montana or the Dakotas unless he is also picking up Texas, but if he picks up Texas he has a win more like Eisenhower in 1956 even down to the sorts of states won and lost.
One of the remarkable realities of 2008 is that President Obama won only one state that Dwight Eisenhower ever failed to get -- North Carolina. Aside from the fringe southern States of Kentucky and Missouri, Stevenson won only states in the then "Solid South".
...President Obama hits the jackpot in electoral votes only if one of three things happen:
1. The Republican nominee has a political collapse.
2. A strong Third Party dilutes the conservative-leaning vote so that President Obama wins some unlikely states (Mississippi?) 39-37-24 or the like.
3. President Obama has answered every fearful question about himself as President with a strong positive answer... and an exclamation point.
