Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
July 28, 2014, 05:20:01 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  2016 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Mr. Morden, Bacon King, Sheriff Buford TX Justice)
| | |-+  Politico previews Clinton vs. Cuomo 2016
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: Politico previews Clinton vs. Cuomo 2016  (Read 1985 times)
Mr. Morden
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18851
United States


View Profile
« on: April 26, 2012, 07:31:21 am »

Worth a read if you're interested in 2016 speculation:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0412/75634.html

However, I don't really agree with the article's premise.  I don't think Cuomo will figure much into Clinton's calculations about whether or not to run in 2016.  And if she does run, I think Cuomo will take a pass.  In fact, I'm guessing that if she does run, she'll end up with zero challengers among "establishment" Democrats.  Whatever challenger(s) she gets will be in the form of an insurgent campaign from the left.
Logged

HOG & Blondie: A Tale of Atlas Future

What is your opinion of this thread?

Watch Dave being briefed by the mods.

Being a moderator is basically like one giant party.  Except you're the one ruining the party and everyone hates you.
Averroės Nix
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9649
United States


View Profile
« Reply #1 on: April 26, 2012, 12:51:04 pm »
Ignore

I'm in full agreement. (I also think that Cuomo's odds are heavily overrated, anyway, and that when he does run, he'll hold limited appeal to Democrats nationally.) I do wonder what kind of non-establishment challengers we'd see. Would the most significant among them be traditional liberals (I'm struggling to think of a realistic example), or would they be of a different flavor (e.g. Schweitzer)?

I wish that we had some evidence beyond the current tone of speculative coverage that speaks to Hillary's 2016 plans. It seems increasingly likely that the nomination is hers to take, and I can't imagine her passing on the opportunity.
Logged

President John Hay
clarence
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4738
United States


View Profile
« Reply #2 on: April 26, 2012, 12:52:36 pm »
Ignore

Hillary will destroy any opposition- not thru fundraising or threats but thru poise and experience... it would be moronic for any Dem to run against her and waste time, money, and political capital

Logged

Ogre Mage
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2011
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.00, S: -4.35

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #3 on: April 26, 2012, 10:04:50 pm »
Ignore

It is difficult to speculate on the political environment in 2016.  Those factors aside, I think defeating Clinton in the 2016 Democratic Primary would require an "outsider," someone who came into politics through a nontraditional route and is able to capture the public's imagination.  And it is very hard for me to see Cuomo running as an outsider, especially given his last name.  I would agree that a more conventional candidate is not going to defeat Clinton.  That's playing the game on her terms and she has even more heft and gravitas than in 2008.  

It goes without saying that a politician capturing lightning in a bottle this way is rare and difficult.  The cliche of lightning not striking twice comes to mind.  There are some Democrats out there who might be able to reconstruct the "Obama Effect" but I am not holding my breath.

A Clinton 2016 redux would not be without its problems.  First, her age would be raised as an issue.  She would be running at 68 and getting sworn in at 69.   Somewhat related to that is the tendency for Democrats to look for THE NEXT BIG THING to get excited about.  And that isn't Hillary.  She will have to fight that tendency.

Maybe Clinton will like retirement too much to come back.  But the Hillary for President drumbeat has already started and I suspect it will get louder as 2016 approaches.  All Presidential-caliber pols have a huge ego and that kind of siren's call is hard to resist.
« Last Edit: April 26, 2012, 10:23:27 pm by Ogre Mage »Logged
greenforest32
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2529


Political Matrix
E: -7.94, S: -8.43

View Profile
« Reply #4 on: April 27, 2012, 09:49:33 am »
Ignore

Clinton and Cuomo being the frontrunners for 2016? Ugh...

I'd say there will be no significant difference between Obama and the 2016 Democratic nominee in fiscal or social policy. Maybe one issue or two, but by and large I expect them to be quite similar given the neoliberal owned political system ultimately controls policy and decides what positions are acceptable for Presidents.
Logged
Mr. Morden
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18851
United States


View Profile
« Reply #5 on: April 27, 2012, 10:23:56 pm »

I do wonder what kind of non-establishment challengers we'd see. Would the most significant among them be traditional liberals (I'm struggling to think of a realistic example), or would they be of a different flavor (e.g. Schweitzer)?

The template I would use is Gore vs. Bradley 2000, where the frontrunner (Gore in 2000; Clinton in 2016) is such an imposing frontrunner that he/she only gets one challenger of any consequence, who looks like he might have a chance at making something happen in either IA or NH early on, but ends up losing all 50 states to the frontrunner in the end.  The challenger is someone who goes after the frontrunner from the left, and who's at a stage in his career where he doesn't really have anything to lose by running.  (Don't know who that would be in 2016, but an obvious possibility would be Feingold.)

My reasoning for why Clinton would be so much stronger in 2016 than she was in 2008 that she'd clear the field:

1) She's the most popular politician in the country at the moment.  And that's with the general electorate.  Among Democrats, she has a phenomenal 86% favorability rating: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_National_417.pdf
It's quite rare for candidates to begin a presidential campaign with numbers like that.  Unless she does something to screw that up in her last year as SoS, she'll probably keep those numbers through 2014 and into 2015 when candidates have to start declaring for the 2016 primaries.

2) In 2006/7, there were quite a few qualms about HRC among pragmatic Dems who just wanted to win.  (Many establishment Dems were urging Bayh and Warner to run, because they thought HRC was a sure loser.)  She was seen as a polarizing figure who might not be able to win a general election.  Those concerns have now evaporated because of reason #1.  For that reason, I don't see any establishment competition for her in 2016.

3) In 2006/7, there was also quite a bit of suspicion and even outright hostility towards her from the liberal base of the party, because of her triangulation on various issues as a senator, and especially about the Iraq War vote.  The Iraq War has faded as an issue now, and I doubt that'll be much of a factor in 2016.  Also, many in the liberal base have been disillusioned by Obama anyway, so they'll probably end up just being more apathetic in 2016, not as easily able to get excited about a challenger to Clinton.

4) Among some Dems, there's a sense of "unfinished business" from 2008 about electing the first female president, and Clinton is the most obvious vehicle through which to do it in 2016.

5) People say that only the GOP ever nominates people who've run before, but it's rare that the runner up on the Democratic side comes as close to winning as Clinton did in 2008.  The closest parallel would be Gary Hart in 1984, who would have actually been the prohibitive frontrunner in 1988 if he hadn't gotten himself in trouble re: Donna Rice.  As long as Hillary doesn't have an affair with Clarence or something, she should be OK.
Logged

HOG & Blondie: A Tale of Atlas Future

What is your opinion of this thread?

Watch Dave being briefed by the mods.

Being a moderator is basically like one giant party.  Except you're the one ruining the party and everyone hates you.
Bull Moose Base
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2581


View Profile
« Reply #6 on: April 28, 2012, 03:36:24 pm »
Ignore

You forgot to mention that she's added Secretary of State to her resume.  Which is what makes the comparison to 2000 closest.  Last 3 Democratic VPs have ended up as a presidential nominee.  Hillary as the highest ranking Administration figure after Obama and Biden roughly corresponds to that.  It'd be rare for Biden as  Democratic VP to yield to a Secretary of State but the stuff you mention plus his age make it likely. 

As for who'd run against her, the past 2 Democratic running mates ran against the guy who picked them but I don't know that would lead anyone eyeing VP to run given the Clintons' rep for holding grudges.  And Clinton himself did not pick someone from his same field.  And Biden was probably just as or more likely to end up VP if he hadn't run.

I do wonder if say Jeb is the GOP nominee if Cuomo and Rubio's potential availability as VPs would lead both parties to change that same state rule.
Logged
Ogre Mage
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2011
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.00, S: -4.35

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #7 on: April 29, 2012, 05:12:22 am »
Ignore

Several articles note that Bill Clinton is offering campaign advice behind the scenes for the Obama campaign and fundraising for the President.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0412/75452.html

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/04/28/bill-clinton-to-appear-at-fund-raiser-with-obama-on-sunday/

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/once-rivals-obama-and-clintons-forge-genuine-partnership-incentive-for-both-to-make-it-work/2012/04/29/gIQAb2wNqT_story_1.html

Could these political chits eventually lead to an Obama endorsement of Hillary?  If Biden runs, then the answer is probably no.  But if Biden stays out, then I think it is very possible.  And having the backing of the two most recent Presidents of her party would make Hillary extremely difficult to defeat within the context of a Democratic Primary.
« Last Edit: April 29, 2012, 10:34:46 pm by Ogre Mage »Logged
Mr. Morden
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18851
United States


View Profile
« Reply #8 on: April 29, 2012, 06:06:17 am »

Bill Clinton is (sort of) doing what John McCain did in 2004: Throwing himself into this campaign in order to win the favor of the party elite for the next election.  The main difference being that he's doing it help Hillary's future viability rather than his own.
Logged

HOG & Blondie: A Tale of Atlas Future

What is your opinion of this thread?

Watch Dave being briefed by the mods.

Being a moderator is basically like one giant party.  Except you're the one ruining the party and everyone hates you.
Mr. Morden
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18851
United States


View Profile
« Reply #9 on: May 04, 2012, 06:10:55 am »

This isn't really worth starting a new thread over, so I'll just post it here.  The New York Daily News commissioned a poll of New York City Dems, asking for their 2016 presidential preference between Clinton and Cuomo:

http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/hillary-clinton-crush-gov-andrew-cuomo-a-presidential-race-article-1.1071568

Clinton 60%
Cuomo 25%
undecided 15%

Why they only polled NYC, I don't know.  I guess it's easier than polling the whole state.
Logged

HOG & Blondie: A Tale of Atlas Future

What is your opinion of this thread?

Watch Dave being briefed by the mods.

Being a moderator is basically like one giant party.  Except you're the one ruining the party and everyone hates you.
President John Hay
clarence
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4738
United States


View Profile
« Reply #10 on: May 04, 2012, 09:20:47 am »
Ignore

Can any New Yorkers give us insight- I would think Cuomo would be most popular in NYC which would make this excellent for Hillary
Logged

Averroės Nix
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9649
United States


View Profile
« Reply #11 on: May 04, 2012, 10:19:09 am »
Ignore

Can any New Yorkers give us insight- I would think Cuomo would be most popular in NYC which would make this excellent for Hillary

Clinton is also popular here - especially upstate. I can't think of a single politician elected to statewide office in recent memory who is better liked in Upstate NY. If they'd polled the entire state, my guess is that the result would be closer to 70-20 in favor of Hillary.
Logged

Mr. Morden
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18851
United States


View Profile
« Reply #12 on: May 09, 2012, 06:18:40 am »

Hillary Clinton's latest denial of interest in the White House can be paraphrased: 'I hope we elect a woman as president, but it won't be me'.

link
Logged

HOG & Blondie: A Tale of Atlas Future

What is your opinion of this thread?

Watch Dave being briefed by the mods.

Being a moderator is basically like one giant party.  Except you're the one ruining the party and everyone hates you.
R2D2
20RP12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21757
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.55, S: -7.91

View Profile
« Reply #13 on: May 09, 2012, 08:02:41 am »
Ignore

Hillary Clinton's latest denial of interest in the White House can be paraphrased: 'I hope we elect a woman as president, but it won't be me'.

link


So that means it will be her?
Logged

Chris B
cb48026
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 667


View Profile
« Reply #14 on: May 09, 2012, 04:11:29 pm »
Ignore

I'm not entirely convinced that Hillary Clinton deciding to run again would clear the field the way Gore did in 2000 personally. I wouldn't deny her current popularity, but I just have a hard time not seeing there being a strong desire and need for a fresh face. Which still leaves an opening for the likes of Cuomo, O'Malley, Schweitzer, etc.

Logged
morgieb
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5300
Australia


View Profile
« Reply #15 on: May 09, 2012, 07:33:35 pm »
Ignore

I'm not entirely convinced that Hillary Clinton deciding to run again would clear the field the way Gore did in 2000 personally. I wouldn't deny her current popularity, but I just have a hard time not seeing there being a strong desire and need for a fresh face. Which still leaves an opening for the likes of Cuomo, O'Malley, Schweitzer, etc.



IMO to challenge Hillary effectively you need to run as an insurgent. So I don't see Cuomo or O'Malley running if Hillary does.
Logged
A.G. Snowstalker
Snowstalker
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16958
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -8.06, S: -4.96

View Profile
« Reply #16 on: May 10, 2012, 02:17:48 pm »
Ignore

Gah, I hate this "big donor" crap. It inevitably favors establishment puppets.
Logged

Mr. Morden
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18851
United States


View Profile
« Reply #17 on: June 16, 2012, 12:08:08 am »

Bizarre speculation about Bill Clinton being named Secretary of State in a future hypothetical Andrew Cuomo administration:

link
Logged

HOG & Blondie: A Tale of Atlas Future

What is your opinion of this thread?

Watch Dave being briefed by the mods.

Being a moderator is basically like one giant party.  Except you're the one ruining the party and everyone hates you.
Bull Moose Base
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2581


View Profile
« Reply #18 on: June 16, 2012, 12:57:14 pm »
Ignore

Bizarre speculation about Bill Clinton being named Secretary of State in a future hypothetical Andrew Cuomo administration:

link


No chance.  But if Hillary, Biden and Gillibrand all skip a run, Clintons will probably be pretty transparent in their Cuomo favoritism.  Even without it, Bill Clinton sloppiness plus Cuomo-media love might have same effect.
Logged
Dan the Roman
liberalrepublican
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1795
United States


P P P
View Profile
« Reply #19 on: June 16, 2012, 08:29:33 pm »
Ignore

I think two things are going on.

Hillary is not interested.

Bill is very interested in Hillary running.

If Bill could run again there would be no talk. He would announce on January 21st, and there would never be doubt,

Hillary really dosen't seem to have it in her. She looks really bad, and may have health issues beyond age.

But Cuomo is a Clinton-protege. He could crushed utterly when he tried to get out of line in 2002 and it almost ended his career. I think he will be too cautious to do so again.
Logged
Mr. Morden
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18851
United States


View Profile
« Reply #20 on: October 18, 2012, 06:55:18 am »

John Heilemann agrees with me on Hillary Clinton basically clearing the field if she runs, and says Bill *really* wants her to run:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45755883/ns/msnbc-the_last_word/#49425302
Logged

HOG & Blondie: A Tale of Atlas Future

What is your opinion of this thread?

Watch Dave being briefed by the mods.

Being a moderator is basically like one giant party.  Except you're the one ruining the party and everyone hates you.
Sasquatch
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 806
View Profile
« Reply #21 on: October 19, 2012, 12:54:51 am »
Ignore

Clinton? Cuomo? Yuck!

Democrats are just lucky that the GOP is run by crazies or they wouldn't stand a chance in 2016.
Logged
Comrade Funk
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 634
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.55, S: -6.96

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #22 on: October 19, 2012, 08:06:16 pm »
Ignore

Clinton? Cuomo? Yuck!

Democrats are just lucky that the GOP is run by crazies or they wouldn't stand a chance in 2016.
I'm pretty sure Hillary would beat anyone, even the greatest of greatest Republicans.
Logged

We need a public option

Quote from: President Harry S. Truman
“We should resolve now that the health of this nation is a national concern; that financial barriers in the way of attaining health shall be removed
milhouse24
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2343
View Profile
« Reply #23 on: October 20, 2012, 09:16:03 pm »
Ignore

Hillary will destroy any opposition- not thru fundraising or threats but thru poise and experience... it would be moronic for any Dem to run against her and waste time, money, and political capital



I suppose only "grassroots" candidates like Obama and Edwards can take Hillary on. 
If Obama beat Hillary in 2008, then certainly another Democrat can beat Hillary in 2016.
Besides, some of those guys are getting older, and the window for Prez or VP is narrowing. 
I'm sure Bayh, Feingold, and Cuomo will be more likely to run, if at least to get some exposure for VP or 2020.  Only losers play it safe on the sidelines. 
Logged
RogueBeaver
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13909
Canada


View Profile
« Reply #24 on: October 20, 2012, 09:19:38 pm »
Ignore

Doubtful either one runs, and 100% certain HRC doesn't run.
Logged

7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  »

- Charles de Gaulle


Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines