2014 Senate and House Predictions

[MilesC56]

First predictions, how are they?

Good, but I think MA would be a tossup at best if Brown ran.

[Northeast Lt. Speaker Spenstar]

Sean Patrick Maloney's seat we need more of an Economic Moderate R to win that seat. Hayworth was mostly a straight down the line Tea Partier. She wasn't a good fit for the district.

This is the first time my district's representative wasn't in the majority. So just pick a fairly electable fellow and hope for a good Republican year. Or don't, and let me be represented by a Democrat. That's okay too xD

....I miss John Hall.

[A$AP Sawx]

First predictions, how are they?

Good, but I think MA would be a tossup at best if Brown ran.

The italics were for were whoever the incumbent is in 2014. If Brown wins, it's Lean R (except for a tossup), and if it's Markey it's a safe Democratic seat.  For the special election this year I think it's a tossup between the two.

[MilesC56]

First predictions, how are they?

Good, but I think MA would be a tossup at best if Brown ran.

The italics were for were whoever the incumbent is in 2014. If Brown wins, it's Lean R (except for a tossup), and if it's Markey it's a safe Democratic seat.  For the special election this year I think it's a tossup between the two.

Ah, that makes more sense.

[Mr.Phips]

Sean Patrick Maloney's seat we need more of an Economic Moderate R to win that seat. Hayworth was mostly a straight down the line Tea Partier. She wasn't a good fit for the district.

This is the first time my district's representative wasn't in the majority. So just pick a fairly electable fellow and hope for a good Republican year. Or don't, and let me be represented by a Democrat. That's okay too xD

....I miss John Hall.

Republican Hamilton Fish held this seat from 1968 to 1994 and he was in the minority the whole time. 

[Northeast Lt. Speaker Spenstar]

Sean Patrick Maloney's seat we need more of an Economic Moderate R to win that seat. Hayworth was mostly a straight down the line Tea Partier. She wasn't a good fit for the district.

This is the first time my district's representative wasn't in the majority. So just pick a fairly electable fellow and hope for a good Republican year. Or don't, and let me be represented by a Democrat. That's okay too xD

....I miss John Hall.

Republican Hamilton Fish held this seat from 1968 to 1994 and he was in the minority the whole time. 

*first time since 1994. And Sean Patrick Maloney's situation is the opposite.

[hopper]

I think Lee Terry(R-NE 2) is very vunerable. He only won his seat by 2 points last year.

CA 31- I don't know on paper Miller looks vunerable but election time you don't know how thats gonna turn out. He is probably in a seat that is the most moderate district a Republican currently holds.

MI 11 only looks appetizing to the Dems because of the reindeer ranching tea partier that currently holds the seat.

I think the Republicans should eye CA-26 next cycle. Brownley is too liberal to hold that seat I think. Strickland was a "Moderate Conservative" and he still lost. Signing the "Norquist Tax Pledge" I think made him look polarizing.

Sean Patrick Maloney's seat we need more of an Economic Moderate R to win that seat. Hayworth was mostly a straight down the line Tea Partier. She wasn't a good fit for the district.

CA-26 will probably not go back to Republicans absent a GOP wave. 

Maloney will be a far tougher target for Republicans than Hall was for several reasons.  The first is that the district shifted about a point to the left in redistricting.  The other big reason is that Maloney will raise an enormous amount of money, unlike Hall, who hated having to raise money and was a generally lazy campaigner. 

Well CA-26 did start out R+3 in redistricting I think. I don't think Brentwood is liberal either. I think the district is pretty "centrist" fiscally and doesn't want a hard line fiscal liberal. They only voted for Brownley I think because of Strickland signing "The Norquist Tax Pledge"as I said before.

Yeah John Hall got lucky because 2006 and 2008 were Dem wave years.

[Invisible Obama]

CA-26 was D+2 after redistricting and Strickland tried to fashion himself a moderate, but his record in the legislature was very conservative. CA-26 consist mostly of Ventura County and Oxnard weighs pretty heavily on the balance of the district. The NRCC didn't even buy airtime in that race.

[hopper]

CA-26 was D+2 after redistricting and Strickland tried to fashion himself a moderate, but his record in the legislature was very conservative. CA-26 consist mostly of Ventura County and Oxnard weighs pretty heavily on the balance of the district. The NRCC didn't even buy airtime in that race.

Strickland only lost by 4(52-48%) though I think.

[Invisible Obama]

Strickland only lost by 4(52-48%) though I think.

It was actually 5.4%, 52.7% to 47.3%.