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| | |-+  What happened in the 1996 Louisiana Senate race?
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Author Topic: What happened in the 1996 Louisiana Senate race?  (Read 460 times)
Mr.Phips
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« on: January 20, 2013, 03:22:27 pm »
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Bill Clinton carried the state 52%-40% over Dole, yet Mary Landrieu only eked out a 5,000 vote victory over Woody Jenkins.  Usually in Southern states, local Democrats run ahead of their Presidential candidate.  Landrieu ran two points behind Clinton and Jenkins ran about 10 points ahead of Dole.  And its not like Jenkins was even a good candidate.  He was essentially a quieter version of David Duke, while Landrieu was a popular statewide official with a golden last name in the state. 

Jenkins clearly won an overwhelming majority of the Perot voters, which I can understand, but he also must have won a statistically significant number of Clinton voters, which is just weird. 

Can anybody explain this?
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #1 on: January 20, 2013, 04:17:22 pm »
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Bill Clinton carried the state 52%-40% over Dole, yet Mary Landrieu only eked out a 5,000 vote victory over Woody Jenkins.  Usually in Southern states, local Democrats run ahead of their Presidential candidate.  Landrieu ran two points behind Clinton and Jenkins ran about 10 points ahead of Dole.  And its not like Jenkins was even a good candidate.  He was essentially a quieter version of David Duke, while Landrieu was a popular statewide official with a golden last name in the state. 

Jenkins clearly won an overwhelming majority of the Perot voters, which I can understand, but he also must have won a statistically significant number of Clinton voters, which is just weird. 

Can anybody explain this?

I thought the same thing. Then again consider neighboring Arkansas which Clinton won by an even bigger margin. Hutchinson wins by a seven point margin.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #2 on: January 20, 2013, 04:39:27 pm »
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Bill Clinton carried the state 52%-40% over Dole, yet Mary Landrieu only eked out a 5,000 vote victory over Woody Jenkins.  Usually in Southern states, local Democrats run ahead of their Presidential candidate.  Landrieu ran two points behind Clinton and Jenkins ran about 10 points ahead of Dole.  And its not like Jenkins was even a good candidate.  He was essentially a quieter version of David Duke, while Landrieu was a popular statewide official with a golden last name in the state. 

Jenkins clearly won an overwhelming majority of the Perot voters, which I can understand, but he also must have won a statistically significant number of Clinton voters, which is just weird. 

Can anybody explain this?

I thought the same thing. Then again consider neighboring Arkansas which Clinton won by an even bigger margin. Hutchinson wins by a seven point margin.

Well, there are a couple of differences between the two states.  Clinton had a real favorite son vote in Arkansas that cut across normal party lines.  Also, Hutchinson was a much stronger candidate than Jenkins.  He already represented more than a fourth of the state in Congress and Winston Bryant really wasnt that good of a candidate.  Remember that Bryant only got 54% against a Republican in the 1990 Attorney General race. 
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cope1989
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« Reply #3 on: January 20, 2013, 06:16:46 pm »
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These days, southern Dems run ahead of the national Democratic ticket, as we've seen with Manchin, Pryor, Landrieu, Hagan etc- for obvious reasons. It looks like in the 1990s southern Dems did worse than the Clinton ticket, so LA in 1996 wasn't an exception. Republicans also won their senate seats in TN and KY while Clinton won both of those states.

crazy times.
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Can't we all just get along?
Mr.Phips
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« Reply #4 on: January 20, 2013, 06:24:54 pm »
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These days, southern Dems run ahead of the national Democratic ticket, as we've seen with Manchin, Pryor, Landrieu, Hagan etc- for obvious reasons. It looks like in the 1990s southern Dems did worse than the Clinton ticket, so LA in 1996 wasn't an exception. Republicans also won their senate seats in TN and KY while Clinton won both of those states.

crazy times.

Well, Democrats didnt run a real candidate against Thompson in Tennessee.  In Kentucky, Beshear was pretty much second-tier back then and McConnell was a heavily funded incumbent.  Also throw in the fact that Dole would have likely won both TN and KY had Perot not been in the ballot.  That clearly wouldnt have been the case in LA and AR. 
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morgieb
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« Reply #5 on: January 20, 2013, 07:29:16 pm »
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What sort of campaign did Landrieu and Jenkins run?
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olawakandi
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« Reply #6 on: January 23, 2013, 12:58:54 pm »
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Foster the gov was popular and carried GOP candidates a little more.
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