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Author Topic: Karl Rove's 1st Electoral Map  (Read 2927 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: April 26, 2012, 12:40:14 pm »
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http://fitsnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Polling_News_and_Notes_04_26_12.pdf
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oakvale
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« Reply #1 on: April 26, 2012, 12:41:42 pm »
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I'm eagerly awaiting Dick Morris' wonderful maps.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #2 on: April 26, 2012, 12:43:07 pm »
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I think Rove's pretty much spot on here.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3 on: April 26, 2012, 12:45:40 pm »
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Hmm. Which SD poll has Romney down by only 6 ?

AZ is a tossup now.

And the TN and KY polls are ages old.

SC polls are also ages old, we'll have to see if Obama has a chance there or not.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #4 on: April 26, 2012, 12:46:07 pm »
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So he sees Obama losing Iowa and Virginia but carrying the Carolinas?

Ok.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #5 on: April 26, 2012, 12:48:03 pm »
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It's a reflection of the polls. Call the polls stupid, not him. (Maybe I should be careful what I wish for. Tongue)
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #6 on: April 26, 2012, 12:48:34 pm »
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So he sees Obama losing Iowa and Virginia but carrying the Carolinas?

Ok.

It would be more interesting to see a Karl Rove map that is based on their internal polls, rather than public polls. This map here is just another version of the Atlas database map.
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« Reply #7 on: April 26, 2012, 01:02:28 pm »
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Rove has SC as a toss-up and even Romney trailing by 3 there. Wow!

Romney is only leading by 5 and 8 in TN and KY. McCain even won those in blowout fashion the last time.

Romney is doing well in Iowa.

I'm surprised Romney is traling by 16 in CT. I would have expected him to trail by 10-11 there. In NJ(my home state) Romney is doing what I expected(trailing by 11.)

Missouri still remains a battleground state that it always is.

Romney is doing well in MI in only trailing by 5 there considering his comments on the auto bailout. Ditto for PA minus the auto bailout comments.

NH, SC, NM, and CO are big dissapointment for the R's on this map. Romney should be leading in NH considering that is really his home state nowadays and Obama's approvals in NH are pretty mediocre like in the low 40's I think.

If your David Axlerod you got to love Rove's electoral map!

By the way, is is just my imagination or is RI getting more red(R) and AZ is getting more blue(d) nowadays?
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hopper
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« Reply #8 on: April 26, 2012, 01:06:10 pm »
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Hmm. Which SD poll has Romney down by only 6 ?

AZ is a tossup now.

And the TN and KY polls are ages old.

SC polls are also ages old, we'll have to see if Obama has a chance there or not.
No Romney is up 6 not down by 6 on this map.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #9 on: April 26, 2012, 01:06:47 pm »
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Nope, it's not your imagination.

As for the numbers in places like TN, those polls are pretty old if I'm remembering right.
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« Reply #10 on: April 26, 2012, 01:18:16 pm »
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Obama will not win NC and lose VA. Simply won't happen as both states are similar demographically but NC is more conservative. Same case with PA always before OH for a Dem.
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« Reply #11 on: April 26, 2012, 02:06:29 pm »
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Finally a map actually based on polling. And for those of you saying that x state won't go before x, he's not saying it will, but saying the polls indicate it could go either way in an election held today.
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« Reply #12 on: April 26, 2012, 03:08:02 pm »
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Yeah, KY/TN won't be closer than WV, and with Romney being a terrible fit, he won't win WV by 17 (though he will win it, obviously)
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greenforest32
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« Reply #13 on: April 26, 2012, 03:43:56 pm »
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How likely is it that Maine has the second highest margin of victory for Obama among the New England states?
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #14 on: April 26, 2012, 03:59:47 pm »
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So he sees Obama losing Iowa and Virginia but carrying the Carolinas?

Ok.

Yeah, why would he have Obama up by 3 in SC?  lol
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argentarius
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« Reply #15 on: April 26, 2012, 04:00:48 pm »
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So he sees Obama losing Iowa and Virginia but carrying the Carolinas?

Ok.

Yeah, why would he have Obama up by 3 in SC?  lol
Because that's what the last poll said.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #16 on: April 26, 2012, 04:03:20 pm »
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So he sees Obama losing Iowa and Virginia but carrying the Carolinas?

Ok.

Yeah, why would he have Obama up by 3 in SC?  lol
Because that's what the last poll said.

Well the last poll the Atlas has logged shows the Generic Republican up by 6.  We must have missed something then.  Tongue
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argentarius
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« Reply #17 on: April 26, 2012, 04:06:11 pm »
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So he sees Obama losing Iowa and Virginia but carrying the Carolinas?

Ok.

Yeah, why would he have Obama up by 3 in SC?  lol
Because that's what the last poll said.

Well the last poll the Atlas has logged shows the Generic Republican up by 6.  We must have missed something then.  Tongue
I'm guessing he missed something or he doesn't like ipsos. Either way I think this is a great map.
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« Reply #18 on: April 26, 2012, 05:16:16 pm »
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Looks like Romney has a lot of work to do changing that map around in his favor.
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« Reply #19 on: April 26, 2012, 06:01:58 pm »
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Obama leading in Ohio but trailing in Iowa? Biggest thing off about this map.
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« Reply #20 on: April 26, 2012, 06:04:17 pm »
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Obama leading in Ohio but trailing in Iowa? Biggest thing off about this map.

I don't think its that off. Some private polling has Obama leading by seven to nine if I recall in Ohio and Michigan, while he only leads by five to three in Florida and Pennsylvania. Iowa and Virgnia are too close to call.
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« Reply #21 on: April 26, 2012, 06:04:41 pm »
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Romney is actually a great fit for Penn voters.  He appeals to moderate Catholics and the state has a Republican governor and 2 pro-life Republican Senators.  In that sense, he can probably win PA but lose Ohio.  
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« Reply #22 on: April 26, 2012, 06:11:22 pm »
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Romney is actually a great fit for Penn voters.  He appeals to moderate Catholics and the state has a Republican governor and 2 pro-life Republican Senators.  In that sense, he can probably win PA but lose Ohio.  

Romney's a great fit for about half of Pennsylvania.

Bob Casey isn't a Republican.
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« Reply #23 on: April 26, 2012, 06:16:21 pm »
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I would like to believe VA, is lean Democrat
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« Reply #24 on: April 26, 2012, 06:24:12 pm »
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Tennessee CAN'T be lean Romney, so is TX and GA.
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