Karl Rove's 1st Electoral Map

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Pennsylvania will be more Democratic than Ohio.

[Comrade Funk]

Romney is actually a great fit for Penn voters.  He appeals to moderate Catholics and the state has a Republican governor and 2 pro-life Republican Senators.  In that sense, he can probably win PA but lose Ohio.  

Toomey / Corbett were elected in the Tea Bagger (lol) wave of 2010. They aren't exactly popular with the crucial Philly suburbs because of their far-right social views, especially with Corbett's new "close your eyes" law.

[billbillerson]

Utterly useless map.

Ridiculous. Obama will not win states in 2012 that he lost in 2008. None. Will. Not. Happen.

[Keystone Phil]

South Carolina is a toss up. Mmmmmhmmmmm.

[Tender Branson]

South Carolina is a toss up. Mmmmmhmmmmm.

According to our database too:

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?fips=45

[Likely Voter]

While Rove is an astute political analyst, I cant help but think this map is more for motivating donors than just his pure analysis

[argentarius]

While Rove is an astute political analyst, I cant help but think this map is more for motivating donors than just his pure analysis

This is very simple. Karl Rove looks at polls. He then puts these polls on an EV map. No agenda involved. Will he be giving us his maps frequently? If so that's the map I'll be using.

[pbrower2a]

While Rove is an astute political analyst, I cant help but think this map is more for motivating donors than just his pure analysis

This is very simple. Karl Rove looks at polls. He then puts these polls on an EV map. No agenda involved. Will he be giving us his maps frequently? If so that's the map I'll be using.

Karl Rove is an astute political analyst with a clear agenda. At this stage he has no reason to distort polling reports.

[Wisconsin+17]

I have to disagree with Romney here. I think Rove is spot on with South Carolina, and off in Iowa and Virginia. If Obama is winning in South Carolina, he'll carry Iowa, Virginia, Missouri and Indiana. My map looks sort of like this, except all the lean Romney are tossup, and the tossups Lean Obama.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

If Obama is close enough to make South Carolina competitive, he's won the election.  The only reason the poll average makes it even look possible is the inclusion of a couple of university polls.  Take those out and the others average to R+7.

[opebo]

Rove's showing the pink states more likely to go for Obama than I think they really are, and the light blue he's edging the other way, also inaccurately:

SO it seems like he's overestimating Obama's strength in states having 122 electoral votes and Republican strength in just 12 electoral votes.  Pretty obviously just an attempt to scare the donors/base.

[Wisconsin+17]

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I think he's being optimistic.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I think he is actually making an aggregate poll map and thus why people in this thread are judging his "predictions", I have no clue as I have yet to see such a map.

[hopper]

MA is trending Republican but has been trending Republican for the past decade I think in Presidential Elections.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

aww, how cute.

[old timey villain]

MA is trending Republican but has been trending Republican for the past decade I think in Presidential Elections.

It's been trending Republican but not because of some massive conservative shift in the electorate. There will be a Rep swing and trend there this year but it will be more of a correction. Gore over performed in the Northeast in 2008, Kerry was a favorite son, and McCain's ticket had absolutely no regional appeal to Massachusetts voters. With Romney as the nominee he'll keep Obama under 60% but he'll still win decisively. I'm thinking 57 to 41.