French legislative election 2012
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 19, 2024, 03:54:25 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  French legislative election 2012
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 15
Author Topic: French legislative election 2012  (Read 78526 times)
Colbert
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 474
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: April 26, 2012, 08:12:20 PM »

first, a very nice link, when you'll find all you want about french political parties.

http://www.france-politique.fr/partis-politiques.htm


next : the very exciting election, this 2012.

-What will happen to UMP ? Would be divided in two wings ? Would be absorbed by MODEM and FN ? Would the situation be the same ?

-socialist party would respect is agreement with EELV or not ? Would there is AGAIN a artificial sustain to this zombie : the radical left party ?

-What will happen to relationship between PCF and PG in FDG ?

-Is the left would gain majority ?
Logged
RedPrometheus
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 470


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: April 27, 2012, 03:56:43 AM »

How do the elections actually work? Is it a FPP system?
Logged
Insula Dei
belgiansocialist
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,326
Belgium


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: April 27, 2012, 05:04:55 AM »

How do the elections actually work? Is it a FPP system?

Sort of. When no candidate makes 50% there's a run-off.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,890
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: April 27, 2012, 06:57:30 AM »

How do the elections actually work? Is it a FPP system?

2-round FPP. Candidates getting more than 12.5% of registered voters goes to the 2nd round. Then, the candidates with the most votes wins.
Logged
Bacon King
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,820
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.63, S: -9.49

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: April 27, 2012, 08:03:50 AM »

How do the elections actually work? Is it a FPP system?

2-round FPP. Candidates getting more than 12.5% of registered voters goes to the 2nd round. Then, the candidates with the most votes wins.

Wikipedia says a candidate can only win in the first round if they get >50% of votes and >25% of registered voters, and it it also specifies that if nobody gets >12.5% of registered voters, then the second round is just the top two candidates. Is this accurate? What happens when a candidate gets more than 50% of the vote but less than 25% of RV's? Or when only a single candidate gets more than 12.5% of RV's?
Logged
Insula Dei
belgiansocialist
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,326
Belgium


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: April 27, 2012, 08:07:01 AM »

How do the elections actually work? Is it a FPP system?

2-round FPP. Candidates getting more than 12.5% of registered voters goes to the 2nd round. Then, the candidates with the most votes wins.

Wikipedia says a candidate can only win in the first round if they get >50% of votes and >25% of registered voters, and it it also specifies that if nobody gets >12.5% of registered voters, then the second round is just the top two candidates. Is this accurate? What happens when a candidate gets more than 50% of the vote but less than 25% of RV's? Or when only a single candidate gets more than 12.5% of RV's?

First case is a run-off, I'm quite sure. I am tempted to think the second would result in a run-off between the two highest placed candidates.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,890
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: April 27, 2012, 08:10:24 AM »

How do the elections actually work? Is it a FPP system?

2-round FPP. Candidates getting more than 12.5% of registered voters goes to the 2nd round. Then, the candidates with the most votes wins.

Wikipedia says a candidate can only win in the first round if they get >50% of votes and >25% of registered voters, and it it also specifies that if nobody gets >12.5% of registered voters, then the second round is just the top two candidates. Is this accurate? What happens when a candidate gets more than 50% of the vote but less than 25% of RV's? Or when only a single candidate gets more than 12.5% of RV's?

This is correct. I guess that if the candidate gets more than 50% but less than 25%, the second round is held normally. And if only one gets over 12.5, the runner-up still gets qualified.
Logged
Hash
Hashemite
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,398
Colombia


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: April 27, 2012, 08:19:32 AM »

How do the elections actually work? Is it a FPP system?

2-round FPP. Candidates getting more than 12.5% of registered voters goes to the 2nd round. Then, the candidates with the most votes wins.

Wikipedia says a candidate can only win in the first round if they get >50% of votes and >25% of registered voters, and it it also specifies that if nobody gets >12.5% of registered voters, then the second round is just the top two candidates. Is this accurate? What happens when a candidate gets more than 50% of the vote but less than 25% of RV's? Or when only a single candidate gets more than 12.5% of RV's?

This is correct. I guess that if the candidate gets more than 50% but less than 25%, the second round is held normally. And if only one gets over 12.5, the runner-up still gets qualified.

This is correct. Happens in a lot of low-turnout cantonal by-elections, when turnout was very low but the winner got over 50% (sometimes nearer to 60%...) but a runoff was held because he didn't get 25% of registered voters.

BTW, it'd be much more preferable to start this thread after May 6, because prior to May 6 it's only the bad mindless hackery and hypotheticals.
Logged
rob in cal
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,978
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: May 07, 2012, 05:53:46 PM »
« Edited: May 07, 2012, 06:05:20 PM by rob in cal »

I think its time to get this thread rolling.  From the recent polls it looks like the UMP has about 30% the FN about 18%  , the leftwing parties about 44-45 % and centrists the rest.  The questions I have are 1) is it a certainty that there will be no FN UMP second round electoral agreement to forestall the dreaded (or hopeful depending on perspective) three cornered contests that I'm sure the Socialists are looking forward to.  Next question, assuming no agreement, can the left win a majority of seats with significantly less than 50% of the vote.
      Or, will the left vote surge now that Holland has won, and they in fact win a popular vote, and seat majority.
     Also, what about the centrists and electoral agreements, would they be more likely to try to link up with the UMP or the left in the second round.
     If the FN vote holds up at 18% nationwide, I'm wondering if their candidates will make it to the second round in an unprecedented amount of districts.  All of this could produce a very unproportional result where the left wins substantially more seats than the UMP and FN combined even though the UMP and FN combined have substantially more votes.   Elections like these are why I support proportional representation, though not the Greek model, of bonus seats, or the high threshold model either.
Logged
MaxQue
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,588
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: May 07, 2012, 06:26:59 PM »

Juppé announced he won't run.
Logged
You kip if you want to...
change08
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,940
United Kingdom
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: May 07, 2012, 06:29:19 PM »

Assuming Francois'll resign as the Correze MP and from the Correze council?
Logged
MaxQue
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,588
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: May 07, 2012, 07:53:57 PM »

As far as I know, the President can't have another elective office.
Cumul isn't allowed, for him.
Logged
Colbert
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 474
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: May 08, 2012, 01:39:58 AM »

as said a lot of UMP leaders, UMP want to make suicide.

It's obvious than with 32%, with a left at 43-44%, only, not an alliance but an agreement of "let the first of the two going on the second round" between UMP and FN' candidates (as want a large majority of UMP's voters)


IMO, we will have a very large victory of the socialist party, in term of seats.
Logged
You kip if you want to...
change08
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,940
United Kingdom
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: May 10, 2012, 07:49:16 PM »

http://www.huffingtonpost.fr/2012/05/10/slogan-ump-legislatives-2012-choisissons-la-france-politique_n_1505307.html?ref=france

Yeah, Let's Choose France because people certainly won't be choosing the UMP.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,172
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: May 10, 2012, 11:48:27 PM »

Right wingers favored according to BVA:

32.5% UMP
32.0% PS
16.0% FN
10.5% FdG
  5.0 Modem
  4.5% Greens
  1.0% DLR
  0.5% NPA

45.5% Left
49.5% Right
  5.0% Modem

http://www.bva.fr/data/sondage/sondage_fiche/1136/fichier_intention_de_vote_legislatives_et_questions_dactualite_bva-orange-spqr-rtl10f8d.pdf

BTW: Sarko leaves office with a 50-49 approval rating.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,172
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: May 10, 2012, 11:55:48 PM »

CSA sees pretty much a tie between Left and Right:

33.0% UMP
32.0% PS
12.0% FN
10.0% FdG
  4.0 Modem
  4.0% Greens
  1.0% LO
  0.5% DLR
  0.5% NPA
  3.0% Others

47.5% Left (46% if you exclude LO and NPA)
45.5% Right
  4.0% Modem

http://www.csa.eu/multimedia/data/sondages/data2012/opi20120510-la-course-2012-vague-27-mai-2012.pdf

FN seems kinda low here to me ...
Logged
Colbert
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 474
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: May 11, 2012, 03:42:58 AM »

as usual, the night of the 1st round, we'll be the shame of the electoral world, we'll be a third-world country, because the ministry of interior will give the results with a lot of those f... "divers droite", "divers gauche", "divers", "others", as all others country give exact results of ALL parties, even those who scored like 0,02 %


Shame on france :/
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,890
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: May 11, 2012, 08:15:17 AM »

Right wingers favored according to BVA:

32.5% UMP
32.0% PS
16.0% FN
10.5% FdG
  5.0 Modem
  4.5% Greens
  1.0% DLR
  0.5% NPA

45.5% Left
49.5% Right
  5.0% Modem

http://www.bva.fr/data/sondage/sondage_fiche/1136/fichier_intention_de_vote_legislatives_et_questions_dactualite_bva-orange-spqr-rtl10f8d.pdf

BTW: Sarko leaves office with a 50-49 approval rating.

WTF is wrong with this country ? Huh
Logged
Franzl
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,254
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: May 11, 2012, 10:01:33 AM »

Wish they'd discovered their love for Sarkozy a week ago.
Logged
rob in cal
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,978
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: May 11, 2012, 10:09:33 AM »

The potential of the right having  more support than the left is actually similar to the first round of the presidential election.  It will be interesting to see if the left can turn a minority of votes into a majority of seats.  Similar to the Conservatives in Canada, or the British Conservatives of the 1980's.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,890
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: May 11, 2012, 10:19:51 AM »

The potential of the right having  more support than the left is actually similar to the first round of the presidential election.  It will be interesting to see if the left can turn a minority of votes into a majority of seats.  Similar to the Conservatives in Canada, or the British Conservatives of the 1980's.

That's the most likely scenario, actually. In the constituencies where the FN will stand in the runoff, they will harm the right and allow the PS to win. I'm still tempted to expect the worse from the voters, though...
Logged
Colbert
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 474
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: May 11, 2012, 12:04:15 PM »

The potential of the right having  more support than the left is actually similar to the first round of the presidential election.  It will be interesting to see if the left can turn a minority of votes into a majority of seats.  Similar to the Conservatives in Canada, or the British Conservatives of the 1980's.


It happen in 1997 french legislative

and it will happen in 2012. UMP's electorate want an alliance, or at less a pact (?) with FN, but national boad of UMP don't want.

In any case, UMP will not split, because of the law of party financing.
Logged
Democratic Hawk
LucysBeau
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,703
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: 2.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: May 11, 2012, 02:53:53 PM »

Wish they'd discovered their love for Sarkozy a week ago.

Can't say I'd have any love for either. Chancellor Angela 'Hoover' (is Eurozone unemployment at a record high or not?) Merkel is out of favour, though I'd still suspect I'd split my vote between the CDU and SPD

Being in the UK, of course, unemployment is my priori issue given that its been all aboard the neoliberal merry-go-round for these past 30+ years and the hell to any ordinary person who falls off from the 'Monetarist Recession' onwards given an horrifyingly inadequate welfare safety net
Logged
Franzl
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,254
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: May 11, 2012, 02:55:34 PM »

Wish they'd discovered their love for Sarkozy a week ago.

Can't say I'd have any love for either. Chancellor Angela 'Hoover' (is Eurozone unemployment at a record high or not?) Merkel is out of favour, though I'd still suspect I'd split my vote between the CDU and SPD

Unemployment in Germany is lower than it has been in decades. With virtually no deficit spending.
Logged
Democratic Hawk
LucysBeau
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,703
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: 2.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: May 11, 2012, 02:58:05 PM »

Wish they'd discovered their love for Sarkozy a week ago.

Can't say I'd have any love for either. Chancellor Angela 'Hoover' (is Eurozone unemployment at a record high or not?) Merkel is out of favour, though I'd still suspect I'd split my vote between the CDU and SPD

Unemployment in Germany is lower than it has been in decades. With virtually no deficit spending.

Yes, the social market does seem to be an improvement on whatever the hell it is the UK has
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 15  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.066 seconds with 11 queries.