French legislative election 2012
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Hashemite
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« Reply #150 on: June 14, 2012, 05:36:57 AM »

People are a bit late on the pickup? Anyhow, It's fun to assign ideological labels like "centrist" or "centre-right" to voters in a place which has lost all sense of left-right politics in recent years, but in reality the bulk of the remnants of Urbaniak's vote are a personal vote in Noyelles-Godault (where he won 40.3% against 31.5% for Marine), where he has been mayor since 1983. And Noyelles-Godault is hardly any different from the other communes. Marine won 32% there and won 48% in the 2007 runoff.

I should be posting my predictions tonight.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #151 on: June 14, 2012, 05:39:17 AM »

People are a bit late on the pickup? Anyhow, It's fun to assign ideological labels like "centrist" or "centre-right" to voters in a place which has lost all sense of left-right politics in recent years, but in reality the bulk of the remnants of Urbaniak's vote are a personal vote in Noyelles-Godault (where he won 40.3% against 31.5% for Marine), where he has been mayor since 1983. And Noyelles-Godault is hardly any different from the other communes. Marine won 32% there and won 48% in the 2007 runoff.

I should be posting my predictions tonight.

Great. Smiley I am in urgent need to relativize my euphoria post-Fab and Zanas' predictions. Tongue
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Andrea
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« Reply #152 on: June 14, 2012, 06:12:15 AM »
« Edited: June 15, 2012, 12:07:31 PM by Andrea »

Elected by default because they will be the only candidates on the ballot papers on Sunday

Paris- 4: Bernard Debré (UMP)
Seine St Denis- 1: Bruno Le Roux (PS)
Seine St Denis- 4: Marie-George Buffet (FG)
Seine St Denis-6: Elizabeth Guigou (PS)
Seine St Denis-7: Razzy Hammadi (PS)
Seine St Denis-11 François Asensi (FG)
Hauts de Seine-1: Alexis Bachelay (PS)
Cher-2: Nicolas Sansu (FG)
Nord-16: Jean Jacques Candelier (FG)
Nord-17: Marc Dolez (FG)
Nord-19: Anne-Lise Dufour-Tonini (PS)
Val de Marne-10: Jean Luc Laurent (MRC)
Val de Marne- 11: Jean-Yves Le Bouillonnec (PS)
Seine Maritime-3: Luce Pane (PS)
Seine Maritime-8: Catherine Troallic (PS)

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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #153 on: June 14, 2012, 06:21:35 AM »

Can we find a list of all qualified candidates who dropped out somewhere ? I'm curious to see how it will affect certain races.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #154 on: June 14, 2012, 06:44:28 AM »

19th Nord might as well count as another loss for the PCF; a really, really good hold for the PS all things considered.
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Andrea
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« Reply #155 on: June 14, 2012, 06:47:42 AM »
« Edited: June 14, 2012, 06:58:34 AM by Andrea »

Can we find a list of all qualified candidates who dropped out somewhere ? I'm curious to see how it will affect certain races.

Didier Codorniou (PS dissident in Aude-2
René Raimondi (PS) in Bouches du Rhone-13
Roland Chassain (UMP) in Bouchces du Rhone-16
Magali Deval (Greens) in Finistère-3
Christian Troadec (PS dissident) in Finistère-6
Alain Fillola (PS dissident) in Haute-Garonne-3
Michel Grall (UMP) in Morbihan-2
Hervé Poher (PS dissident) in Pas de Calais-6
Irina Kortanek (FN) in Pyrénées Orientales-2
Olivier Delaporte (UMP dissident) in Yvelines-3
Martine Fuiorili Beaunier (FN) in Vaucluse-5
Marie Helene Amiable (FG) in Hauts de Seine- 11

+ the 12 challengers of the candidates listed in my previous post (but I don't think you are interested in them and so I will save my time not to list all of them).
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #156 on: June 14, 2012, 07:05:13 AM »

So that asshole Karimet didn't drop out ? Couldn't that cost Dosière the election ? Sad
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« Reply #157 on: June 14, 2012, 10:34:14 AM »



Belle et rebelle!

Only entering in that thread right now, and couldn't resist to post about it (La Rochelle staying faithful to its motto!). The 1st time I heard Royal was running in La Rochelle, I thought '.k she definitely wanna show as a martyr??', if there was one leftist spot in France that wasn't sized for her, that precisely was that one. A rather modern and pragmatic leftist spirit with a strong bobo influence, then the total opposite of her mix of old school French teacher style and populist 'Antillais Televangelist' style.

And all the media agitation that is going on since the twit of Hollande's wife supporting her opponent, and all politicians, till the PM, more or less forced to react to this is just...insane (and one more hint, if that was needed, that this political system is just ****** up).

Would have been funny to have her doing the teacher at the presidencey of the Assemblée though, I wonder who could it be instead of her. Well, you never know, but it seems done for her so far.

After the loss of Aubry, the loss of Royal and it's the hypocrisy about the unity of PS which is blasting a bit more.

That being said, the biggest stake to me in those elections remains whether the 'fantastic trio' of the new FN will do it.

Seems to remain to doable for Marine Le Pen. A very discredited PS, a candidate of the classical Right which is a Centrist, while the Right is generally more and more turning Far-Right, only 8% to catch. Seems doable.

Same for Collard in Gard. Outside of the good FN scores in Présidentielle there, Collard is totally fit for the classical Southerner Rightist/Far-rightism populism, he has a regional implantation since he was lawyer in Marseille, a nationwide very good recognition, the UMP facing him is totally crumbling in term of age (amusing how his name fits him...), and more of that this is a triangular.

I'd be less sure for the last big name of the new FN, Fillipot, but still. The guy began to gain a significant enough media exposure since the last Présidentielle campaign, he showed as a very good debater (and I think he can still improve), who has a rather strong political culture, who is young but not too much, and who hasn't an extremist background (he was Chevènementist). He calls for UMP voters to vote for him, maybe that wouldn't be easy for him, but might be doable, he runs in the good region.

If one of those 3 enters in, then this new FN could consider it a victory, each one of this 3 could very well succeed to excite the whole assembly each time they speak, and in the same time showing all the unfairness and the contradictions of our institutions and of our classical politicians. Perfect for Marine's conquest of the Right if so, they would have a lot of visibility without the slightest power. And no matter they have 1, 2 or 10 députés, in all cases they could complain about the total lack of representativity of this assembly given they did almost 1/5 of the vote and couldn't even be able to form a group in the assembly, especially when you see the totally disproportioned place that could have Greens compared to their 2,3%.

Other than that I'd be surprised PS hasn't a clear majority, Greens enslaved themselves and FdG wouldn't be strong enough to have a lot of sits, Mélenchon kinda screwed himself with his rather stupid personal confrontation. A movement like FdG might very well have some future, but they still have too much contradictions within them. So far based a lot on a leader (which just took a slap, and which also have rather strong personal contradictions, notably on the international scale, not to speak about too strong ties to too old political references) while its promotes some schemes in which the leadership of one man is not the most important, and the big contradictions with the old PCF stuck in its very old psychological schemes, which remains an important part of this movement, notably thanks to its ability to mobilize militants (even if the Présidentielles showed that people supporting this movement went far beyond the classical PCF). And well, I'd consider more and more that the years to come on the short term are for the Far-Right first, a golden path is opened to Marine Le Pen and her 'ideas', let's see if she can walk it, Municipales and Européennes elections could be a major test.

3 days to know which big mouthes we gonna have in the Assemblée, 2 years for the PS or for Marine Le Pen to convince...

Oh and, I haven't followed this whole thing closely, so I don't know at all whether this could be possible but I'd love that there'd be enough PS dissidents to, eventually, form a group in the assembly. ^^. One more thing that would show how ****** up are our institutions...
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big bad fab
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« Reply #158 on: June 14, 2012, 10:42:36 AM »

So that asshole Karimet didn't drop out ? Couldn't that cost Dosière the election ? Sad

The PS has dropped Karimet and is now officially supporting Dosière. So, the "vote utile" and the usual discipline will be enough for Dosière to win.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #159 on: June 14, 2012, 10:49:00 AM »

People are a bit late on the pickup? Anyhow, It's fun to assign ideological labels like "centrist" or "centre-right" to voters in a place which has lost all sense of left-right politics in recent years, but in reality the bulk of the remnants of Urbaniak's vote are a personal vote in Noyelles-Godault (where he won 40.3% against 31.5% for Marine), where he has been mayor since 1983. And Noyelles-Godault is hardly any different from the other communes. Marine won 32% there and won 48% in the 2007 runoff.


You're damn right, as usual, but, well, if she is able to gain another 17 points in Noyelles while being stuck to 48 anywhere else (or let's say 42 in Carvin and 52 in Hénin), she won't make it anyway.
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« Reply #160 on: June 14, 2012, 12:22:49 PM »

One of my bros, who lives in La Rochelle, just posted this link to me:

http://www.arretsurimages.net/vite.php?id=14017

13 headlines for Hollande's wife twit.

...insane.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #161 on: June 14, 2012, 12:25:33 PM »

One of my bros, who lives in La Rochelle, just posted this link to me:

http://www.arretsurimages.net/vite.php?id=14017

13 headlines for Hollande's wife twit.

...insane.

Indeed, this is ridiculous.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #162 on: June 14, 2012, 02:10:46 PM »

Welcome to elections in the era of 24 news and all that. See also 'bigotgate'. Labour gained Rochdale anyway.
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Zanas
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« Reply #163 on: June 14, 2012, 02:17:27 PM »

I don't think Philippot has even the slightest shot at being elected. It's Forbach. The mayor is running against him, which could get some voters to finally wake up on the 2nd round et get to vote (not to mention PS-members attached to any middle-sized municipality, employees of the mairie, and so on...). In Forbach, people are bound to vote either for FN or FG or PS indifferently, cause they just don't have any ing clue as to how any ing thing works in politics !

And there are also lots of cités, which tend to vote between 20 and 40% in whatever election you throw at them, but could get to the polling stations a little bit more on this particular Sunday, and not to vote for Philippot of course...

Finally, Forbach-Freyming old mining constituency will have a left representative which correspond to its history, even if it's by sheer dumb luck... And I believe the neighbouring one of the same type, Creutzwald-Carling, will too in a triangulaire.

Other than that, I believe Le Pen will strike 48, maybe 49, but will fail. But Collard clearly has a chance, and I also believe Maréchal-Le Pen has a chance in Vaucluse, perhaps their best one...

As to the touiteurgate, the second constituency poll published this week is again in La Rochelle, which is in fact a rather dull constituency politically... I don't want to live in this country anymore (but others might be even worst, so I'll stay anyway...)
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« Reply #164 on: June 14, 2012, 02:45:01 PM »

Yeah, I don't know enough about the constituency itself for Philippot (sorry for his name in my other post, might be part of those that hardly enters in my mind), I based most of my argumentation on his personality and the momentum he could have taken from the Présidentielle campaign which indeed might not be enough, but you never know.

Yeah, MMLP, Maréchal, well, I didn't count her because I don't know her enough to say whether she could have a charismatic impact on the Assemblée, while I'm quite sure that even if only one of the 3 I mentioned do it, it could shake it. But yes, objectively she seems to have a chance.

And who knows about some eventual surprises here or there about FN Rassemblement Bleu Marine...

In case a charismatic FN one enters, it will be also interesting to see the behavior of the UMP députés of the Droite Populaire (far-right wing of the UMP) in parliamentary debates, basically there is no major difference between them and FN RBM (which if I believe Aliot wouldn't keep this name after the elections), heck there is even less and less difference, at least in term of tone and of kind of topics, between the Sarkozist/Coppé/Morano UMP and MLP (lol, even Fillon went to support Morano in Moselle after she said that UMP and FN voters were closer from each other than UMP was to PS, and I don't know if it was me or Fillon who could hardly do what he was doing but I just couldn't find a freaking sense in the sentence he stated about that on France Info), this could put all of this in light and helps an eventual conquest of the Right by Marine Le Pen.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #165 on: June 14, 2012, 03:16:33 PM »

Alright, here's a little map I've been working on. Candidates qualified for the second round (including those who dropped out) :


(click for higher resolution)

Left wins by 1st round : 25 (dark red)
Left VS left : 22 (red)
Left VS other : 7 (pink)
Left VS far-right : 21 (orange)
Left VS left VS far-right : 1 (light orange)
Left VS left VS right : 8 (purplish fuchsia)
Left VS right : 426 (purple)
Left VS right VS other : 2 (light purple)
Left VS right VS right : 4 (purplish blue)
Left VS right VS far-right : 31 (yellow)
Right VS far-right : 9 (turquoise)
Right VS other : 5 (light blue)
Right VS right : 5 (blue)
Right wins by 1st round : 11 (dark blue)

Which means the left is qualified in 547 races, the right for 501, the far-right for 62, other in 14. There are 36 first round winners, 495 two-way races and 46 three-way races.

Even though it's a pretty useless map, comments are welcome since I spent more than three days to finish it. Tongue
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #166 on: June 14, 2012, 03:20:24 PM »

It's the opposite of useless. Tells a great deal about politics in France these days.
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Zanas
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« Reply #167 on: June 14, 2012, 03:25:08 PM »

It's not useless at all ! You can clearly see a yellow-orange north-east and south-east, the surroundings of Limousin and piedmont of Pyrénées with dark red, the traditional left strongholds since... like forever (at least 1848 for Limousin, maybe even 1790 if you look this thoroughly). You see that the "banlieue rouge" AND the "banlieue bleue" of Paris (red and blue districts, which are opposit colors than in an American context by the way...) have weakened to leave way to a traditional left-right (purple in your map) fight nearly everywhere around Paris.
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« Reply #168 on: June 14, 2012, 03:57:34 PM »

There's no chance in hell that the moron Flipout or whatever his name is will win. His first round result (26%) was actually a pretty crappy result for some heavily flaunted star candidate, and a duel is always near-impossible for the FN to win. While the coal mining basin of Forbach/Freyming certainly isn't historically left-wing, it voting for the left is imaginable and has happened in the past (1997).

That retarded douchebag Collard will probably (hopefully?) lose, but it would be fitting for possibly the worst place in the country to have the worst deputy ever.
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« Reply #169 on: June 14, 2012, 05:58:54 PM »

Anyway, here are my predictions (which are very close to Fab's):

By party winner (using my own labels, instead of the Ministry's horrible stupidities, and separating all Radicals from the UMP):


FG 10
MUP 1
MRC 4
EELV 19
MIM (reg.) 1
PNC (reg.) 1

PS 291
DVG (PS dissidents) 18
PRG 12
(PS+PRG+DVG 321)
LEFT 357

MoDem 2

AC 1
NC 14
PRV 12 (including a few elected under UMP banners, under as DVD, others as PRAD... lol france)

UMP 173
DVD 12
DLR 2
PCD 1
MPF 1
RIGHT 216

Ligue du Sud/divers EXD 1
FN 1

By seat ratings (first round winners counted as 'safe'):


Safe left 220
Left favoured 46
Lean left 51

Tossup - left edge 40

Centre favoured 1
Lean centre 1

Tossup - right edge 38

Lean right 54
Right favoured 59
Safe right 65

Lean EXD 1
Tossup - EXD edge 1

General comments:

I've again hesitated a long time before putting too many seats as 'safe right', so 'right favoured' is close to safe, but I chickened out. On the other hand, I was quite liberal in placing seats as safe left, even those with defending UMP incumbents, but in some places their results were so bad that it's impossible to have them win.

I basically used Fab's methodology and relied heavily on my map to determine FN and centrist transfers to the right. I assumed very good transfers to the PS from the FG and EELV, and mediocre transfers from the far-leftie fringe. I didn't really take into account additional or lesser turnout, but I don't think there should be game-changing turnout swings in that many constituencies. In triangulaires with the FN, using the lessons of 2010 and 2011 rather than the history of 1997, I am assuming that the FN vote either remains stable or trends up rather than down.

As for EELV, I am assuming that, in the end, the leftie dissidents' vote will not transfer all that badly to them. We all know what all the anecdotes about your uncle's friend's cousin twice removed about "ZOMGZ I REFUSE TO VOTE FOR TEIHS CANDIDATE!1111" amounts to in the end... still, I might be being generous to them. At this point, it isn't an issue of whether EELV can win in places like Firminy which are probably the last places where Greens would win in normal circumstances, but rather whether the left as a whole can win in those places.

Yeah, I'm placing Le Pen 3.0 as the winner in Carpentras-sud, though it is a very close call (the department is a hellhole, but they make elections interesting to watch). But I don't see either Collard or Panzergirl winning their seats.

In terms of groups on these numbers, EELV can easily form a group which Angelini would join. The PRG, if it can get the MRC, MUP and/or a few PS dissidents to join, could also have its own little group. The FG would need the MRC and MUP's members to join with it if it wants a group. NC can probably save a centrist group with the AC, the MoDem and maybe some DVDs. It would be fun to have, on top of the PS and UMP groups, a EELV group, a PRG group, a NC group and perhaps even a FG-MRC-something group.

btw, these predictions also integrate my older predictions for the 11 'foreign' seats, which I split 7 PS/3 UMP/1 EELV

There are a few seats where I'm starting to lose sleep over my predictions because it's so damn close:
Bouches-du-Rhone 11th
Val-de-Marne 4th
Hauts-de-Seine 13th
Wallis et Futuna
Loiret-1, 2 and even 3 and 6
Drome-2nd
two Alsatian right-right battles

But you don't need to be in the pew every Sunday to know that there's something wrong in the UMP when two seats in Vendee are tossups.
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Zuza
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« Reply #170 on: June 14, 2012, 08:37:25 PM »

What is MUP?
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RodPresident
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« Reply #171 on: June 14, 2012, 09:57:45 PM »

MUP is a moderate dissidency from PCF led by Robert Hue (former PCF leader). They're running Jean Nöel Carpentier, mayor of Montigny-les-Corméilles, in 3rd constituency of Val-D'Oise, where Hue was mayor.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #172 on: June 15, 2012, 02:11:19 AM »

Great, Gaël !
Indeed, we are really very close.
Fine (or frightening ?) to see that pollsters are rallying our predictions Wink
Though they have taken almost a week, with all their means and people, to give us excessively cautious projections...
I'm worrying about the 3/5 majority for the left now Sad
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #173 on: June 15, 2012, 04:36:10 AM »

You and Fab are pretty close after all. Cheesy

Anyways, fascinating stuff. Thank you.
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Andrea
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« Reply #174 on: June 15, 2012, 04:58:05 AM »

IFOP has a poll out for Essone-4
Nathalie Kosciusco-Morizet 51.5%
PS 48.5%

She gets 53% of FN votes. He gets 90% of Front de Gauche's voters and 18% of FN's first round support.

BVA for Vaucluse-3

Marion 36.5% UMP 34.5% PS 29%

I guess this poll is useful for UMP in the end. It should improve the "vote utile".
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