French legislative election 2012
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 18, 2024, 11:15:06 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  French legislative election 2012
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 4 5 6 7 8 [9] 10 11 12 13 14 15
Author Topic: French legislative election 2012  (Read 78509 times)
Andrea
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 716
Italy
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #200 on: June 17, 2012, 05:41:47 AM »

82.81% turnout in Wallis-et Futuna

Turnout at midday in mainland France: 21.41% (last Sunday: 21.06%; second round 2007: 22.89%
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,890
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #201 on: June 17, 2012, 05:43:29 AM »

So, the picture looks roughly the same as in first round. That doesn't mean, however, that it's the same people who turned out to vote...
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,890
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #202 on: June 17, 2012, 05:45:47 AM »

BTW, Gaël, I assume there will be a #legislatives2012 party once again on mibbit ? Smiley
Logged
Hash
Hashemite
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,398
Colombia


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #203 on: June 17, 2012, 08:44:12 AM »

BTW, Gaël, I assume there will be a #legislatives2012 party once again on mibbit ? Smiley

Yeah, with the added fun of a Greek election doom and gloom "party" at the same time Smiley

Also, once again, no leaked results or exit polls before 20h.
Logged
Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]
tsionebreicruoc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,385
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #204 on: June 17, 2012, 09:32:07 AM »

Benoît, the FN isn't more respectable now than before 2011: all the guys around Marine really want power (contrary to Jean-Marie Le Pen), but they are at least as mad as the former team. And they are even far less intelligent.
Though they were cr*p, at least, people like Le Gallou, Blot, Martinez, even devil Stirbois, were clever guys.
So, as for leaders, middle and local politicians, rank-and-file, the transfers between UMP and FN may be, at a certain point, as impossible as ever.

And FN voters aren't likelier to transfer to the UMP than before, as it's again a mix between popular vote and "strong right" vote, plus (it's new in 2012) a rural and far-exurban vote. What Sarkozy did in 2007 was to appeal DIRECTLY to popular voters, apart from his traditional bourgeois base. It wasn't the FN rank-and-file or appartachiki who rallied Sarkozy.
So, today and for some years to come, adding UMP+FN hasn't any more relevance than before.

Of course, if the Droite populaire-wing of the UMP was a party of its own and if France had PR as electoral system, then you could add FN+Droite+populaire+UMP+even centre-right MPs, though still not the voters.

Well, yes, never said it was more respectable than before, just that the trend would be that more and more people would be finding it is, Marine Le Pen and the new generation might be as 'mad' as old FN's but they live in a new paradigm, both in term of content than in term of form, and are also far better communicants than before (unless anybody dare pretend Golnich was a good communicant), before FN was 'THE DEVIL ON EARTH!' (JMLP) and nobody else around, and was a kind mix of all the different streams of the hardcore French Far-Right fascinated by all the darknesses of French history, plus some different kinds of strong rightist people, plus all those who effectively wanted to say 'F**K ALL OF YOU!' (with different kinds of sociology existing for each category apparently).

Marine Le Pen is arriving like a storm in all of this and wants to conquer, she has 'the talent' to do so as said Morano (hey speaking about her, doesn't Fillon want to go back supporting Morano after what she just said 'on phone'?), she knows what to say to gain to catch the most possible populism, and she finds a country which is apparently, culturally (I care always more about what's going on in the culture than in elections personally, especially with the French electoral system), more and more opened to her ideas.

That being said, she only opened an important electoral gate with her 18% of 81%, as I said, if she wants to conquer she has a whole path to do, and still a lot of job to do, to find a new clear and more consensual line, but you can't watch FN right now and say it won't work, it's something in full mutation.

And when you add to this the fact that UMP would be totally crumbling to me, and that its Far-Right wing seems to be more and more fascinated by this new efficient leader, now that they have lost one, now that the whole classical Right has lost a strong leader, while they always worked this way.

All of this said, no matter how far Marine Le Pen would be able to go, our luck is that, in Europe, Far-Rightist populisms remain quite empty and can't be as nasty as they have been in the past, we're kinda vaccinated, which is why I use to say that I feel safer to be in Europe than in Northern America...

Once again, the major test for the new FN would be both Européennes (who knows what can happen in 2 years, but if the context remains kinda the same, those elections could be 'wow!'), and overall Municipales (I can't help thinking about Marseille...all the ingredients are there), a far more accessible election for FN and the 2nd most important elections for French people.

Oh and, it's my party that won last Sunday, about 52%!

I would have been home I might have continued my FdG vote, but I wasn't and am still not, so I guess my party will win again, and apparently I don't have much conscience troubles with that...
Logged
Hash
Hashemite
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,398
Colombia


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #205 on: June 17, 2012, 11:52:15 AM »

My chatroom thing is online, if anybody wants to chit-chat with me in this last hour.
Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #206 on: June 17, 2012, 11:54:49 AM »

linky dinky?
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,172
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #207 on: June 17, 2012, 11:56:58 AM »

At 17:00, turnout was roughly 2% less than last week.
Logged
Hash
Hashemite
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,398
Colombia


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #208 on: June 17, 2012, 11:57:51 AM »


Mibbit

#legislatives2012
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,890
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #209 on: June 17, 2012, 12:00:22 PM »


Can't find it. Huh
Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #210 on: June 17, 2012, 12:02:48 PM »

Oh right, chatroom. I was thinking liveblog like for the presidentials. Sorry. Smiley
Logged
Hash
Hashemite
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,398
Colombia


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #211 on: June 17, 2012, 12:05:10 PM »


That's... weird? You're sure you're doing all the steps correctly?

Can't find it. Huh
Logged
TheParliamentarian
TheNationalist
Rookie
**
Posts: 31
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #212 on: June 17, 2012, 12:46:17 PM »

AP says the socialists will have an outright majority in parliament
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,890
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #213 on: June 17, 2012, 12:49:41 PM »
« Edited: June 17, 2012, 12:54:42 PM by Objectif 289 »

AP says the socialists will have an outright majority in parliament


NO SPOILER

Thx.
Logged
Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]
tsionebreicruoc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,385
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #214 on: June 17, 2012, 12:55:20 PM »

lol, Ségolène Royal speaking before 20h, which is forbidden on French TV, so we have the image and not the sound ^^.

Amusing to see this censorship about results in French media kinda teleported here.
Logged
Hash
Hashemite
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,398
Colombia


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #215 on: June 17, 2012, 12:57:04 PM »

AP says the socialists will have an outright majority in parliament

Are you illiterate, retarded or missing a chromosome?
Logged
Andrea
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 716
Italy
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #216 on: June 17, 2012, 12:57:43 PM »

Segolene is spoilering live on France 2.
Logged
Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]
tsionebreicruoc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,385
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #217 on: June 17, 2012, 01:00:52 PM »

So...2 FNs?
Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #218 on: June 17, 2012, 01:01:41 PM »

http://www.france24.com/en/election-resultats

This says 2-4 FN. Which is bizarre since it gives an exact number for everybody else...
Logged
Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]
tsionebreicruoc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,385
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #219 on: June 17, 2012, 01:02:06 PM »

And La Rochelle rebelle!

Royal lost.
Logged
Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]
tsionebreicruoc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,385
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #220 on: June 17, 2012, 01:02:49 PM »

Coppé elected 59,6%
Logged
Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]
tsionebreicruoc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,385
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #221 on: June 17, 2012, 01:04:03 PM »

Lang beaten! by 49.something

Lang, Royal, it's all the 'special ones' of PS that are leaving...
Logged
Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]
tsionebreicruoc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,385
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #222 on: June 17, 2012, 01:05:17 PM »

Damn it, Bertand does it, very short though, 50. something.

Morano beaten! (maybe not a so good news, it's not the kind to surrender...)
Logged
Andrea
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 716
Italy
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #223 on: June 17, 2012, 01:05:27 PM »

Bye bye Nadine.

Marion leading according to FR2 journalist
Logged
Foucaulf
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,050
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #224 on: June 17, 2012, 01:07:07 PM »

http://www.france24.com/en/election-resultats

This says 2-4 FN. Which is bizarre since it gives an exact number for everybody else...

Maybe it depends on if you count Bompard as FN or "other right". Same goes for someone else too?

TOTAL LEFT: 341 SEATS
OF WHICH SOCIALIST: 291 SEATS
TOTAL RIGHT: 231 SEATS
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 4 5 6 7 8 [9] 10 11 12 13 14 15  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.048 seconds with 11 queries.