French legislative election 2012

[lilTommy]

With a coherent 45%, the left is en route for a larger victory than 1997, larger than the right's victory in 2007 and probably not far from the right's victory in 2002.

That's an interesting discrepancy because, extrapolating from Gaël's constituency-by-constituency analysis, I come to the conclusion that the left's victory should be lower than in 1997. So looking at national number, the left is far ahead, while if you look at individual races it's almost a tossup.
[/quote]

From following Hash DAILY, hes doing some fantastic work, and from somone who only knows french politics form a superficial perspective its been a wonderful education.... we can all thank Marleix's gerrymandering the constituencies (attempt in some cases) where you have huge safe left seats "reserves", but fewer competative ones (at least on paper right) leading to a large number of toss-ups where i would expect the local issues/candidates to be more important?

Also, i have a question... whats a suppleant? why are some/most parties basically presenting two candidates?

[Formerly Californian Tony]

With a coherent 45%, the left is en route for a larger victory than 1997, larger than the right's victory in 2007 and probably not far from the right's victory in 2002.

That's an interesting discrepancy because, extrapolating from Gaël's constituency-by-constituency analysis, I come to the conclusion that the left's victory should be lower than in 1997. So looking at national number, the left is far ahead, while if you look at individual races it's almost a tossup.

From following Hash DAILY, hes doing some fantastic work, and from somone who only knows french politics form a superficial perspective its been a wonderful education.... we can all thank Marleix's gerrymandering the constituencies (attempt in some cases) where you have huge safe left seats "reserves", but fewer competative ones (at least on paper right) leading to a large number of toss-ups where i would expect the local issues/candidates to be more important?

Also, i have a question... whats a suppleant? why are some/most parties basically presenting two candidates?

A "suppléant" is a substitute. If the sitting MP resigns or passes away, the suppléant can take his seat without the need for a by-election. If the candidate is a sitting minister, the suppléant is basically the actual candidate (because a minister cannot be a MP in France, so he will resign from his seat immediately after winning election).

There might be several candidates from the same parties if there are "dissidents", ie people who haven't got the party endorsement but run nonetheless. It can happen especially often if the national party nominates someone unpopular at the local level.

[lilTommy]

Thanks! i thought it was more the second option (minister), i didn't know they can by-pass a by-election all together... interesting.

... it seems that happens all the time, dissidents running, many look to be because they don't support the parties choice of another parties candidate (ie the PS endorsing the EELV and so on) or personal clashes and infighting.

Any news on the campaigns? who becomes the main spokesperson now? i'm looking from a NA perspective here; is Hollande actively campaigning and promoting PS policies? or is Aubry the main PS leader out-and-about? is Sarko the face of the UMP during the campaign? are policy directions even hashed out?

[Formerly Californian Tony]

Hollande has been extremely silent since his inauguration. I guess that's part of the "normal" strategy (ie, highlighting the difference with Sarkozy and his constant speaking). Anyways, the President has never (directly) taken the lead of the legislative campaign, and has generally refrained from even commenting on it. 5th Republic political traditions emphasize on the President being "above parties" (which is of course bullsh*t, but still plays an important role).

Thus, there are two people who could naturally take the lead of a legislative campaign now. Either the Prime Minister (Ayrault), who, being the emanation (and somehow leader) of the parliamentary majority, can have a legitimity in doing so, or the party's leader (Aubry). It has never cleared up which of those two should prevail, and considering Aubry is pissed off, this might lead to a few conflicts inside the PS. However, thus far the campaign has been so low-key that the issue hasn't really erupted. Hopefully it never will...

On the right, the leader is very clearly Jean-François Copé, the party's general secretary whose well-known ambition is to become President in 2017. However, several people in the party (chiefly former PM Fillon) are also trying to prepare for 2017, and are somewhat undermining his authority.

[rob in cal]

Anyone have any idea what kind of parties/candidates are meant by the "others" or divers that is getting 1.5 % of the vote in the last poll?
I agree that the FN and UMP vote can't be lumped together as one coherent bloc since they won't work together, however if in fact their combined vote, plus that of all other small right wing parties is bigger than that going to the left wing parties, it will underscore the fact that the NA will not be a true reflection of the electorate.  Of course since it was the right that abolished proportional representation in 1986, this would be a form of poetic justice.  Sooner or later, one would think, the right wing parties will embrace proportional representation. 

[Formerly Californian Tony]

In 2007, the parliamentary right won only 46% of the votes. It still won a comfortable majority.
In 2002, the right won 43% and 69%.
In 1997, the left won 45% and 55%.

It almost never happens in France that the winning coalition gets a majority of the vote in the first round. That's what happens almost always in countries using FPP. Didn't the labour not even win a majority of the vote in 1997 ?

[Formerly Californian Tony]

Hollande has been extremely silent since his inauguration.

Aaaaaaand just after posting this, I learn that he will give his first interview this evening. I guess he will avoid the topic of legislatives, though.

[big bad fab]

Adding UMP and FN has, well, absolutely no sense. At all. Definitely.

Ditto.

With a coherent 45%, the left is en route for a larger victory than 1997, larger than the right's victory in 2007 and probably not far from the right's victory in 2002.

That's an interesting discrepancy because, extrapolating from Gaël's constituency-by-constituency analysis, I come to the conclusion that the left's victory should be lower than in 1997. So looking at national number, the left is far ahead, while if you look at individual races it's almost a tossup.

Well, Hash hasn't made Nord, Ile-de-France (sure, there is Yvelines, but there is the rest too...) any department of the South-West so far... And if you consider also Corse or Meuse, normally rightist areas, the left will be up, up, up.
Plus, Hash is a tad conservative, I think.

[Ethelberth]

Can you estimate the maximum number of PRG seats or other smaller parties.

[Andrea]

The Journal of Tahiti gives the following resullts for Polynesie constituencies

Constituency I

Mme Teaki DUPONT-TEIKIV  1131 votes
M. Karl REGURON (VEC) 408
M. Gustave HEITAA (FG)  104
Mme Poema TANG-PIDOUX (UMP) 931
M. Quito BRAUN-ORTEGA (DVD) 1258
M. Pierre FREBAULT (REG) 5512
M. Philip SCHYLE (DVD) 2533
M. Louis FREBAULT (DVG) 2758
Mme Nicole BOUTEAU (CEN) 2547
M. Teiva FORTELEONI (AUT) 358
M. Pierre MARCHESINI (AUT) 421
M. Edouard FRITCH (DVD) 11049
M. Robert ANANIA (DVD) 249
M. Ronald TEROROTUA (DVG) 222
M. Pita BENNETT (DVD) 374
Mme Tevahine MAIROTO (DVD) 311

So 36.63% for Fritch who will go to a run off against Frébault

Constituency II

Mme Sandra LEVY-AGAMI (DVD) 1324
M. Teiva MANUTAHI (DVD) 2713
M. Philippe NEUFFER (REG) 6330
M. Jaros OTCENASEK (VEC) 301
M. Tearii ALPHA (DVD) 1953
M. Jimmy PANIE (DVD) 492
M. Manea TUAHU (DVD) 926
M. Antonio PEREZ (DVD) 520
M. Edouard POROI (AUT) 188
M. Clarenntz VERNAUDON (DVD) 679
M. Bruno SANDRAS (UMP) 2421
M. Antonio SOARES-PIRES (DVD) 284
M. Jonas TAHUAITU (DVD) 7601
Mme Hinano TUNOA (AUT) 372

29.12% for Tahaitu and 24.25% for Neuffeur. Incumbent Sandras has been eliminated. Reading his bio on wikipedia, I am more surprised by the fact he was an official candidate.


Constituency III

M. René HOFFER (AUT) 108
M. Monil TETUANUI (DVG) 206
M. Gaston TETUANUI (AUT) 379
M. Nicolas BERTHOLON (DVD) 637
M. Jean-Christophe BOUISSOU (DVD) 1762
Mme Angèle TERIITAU (VEC) 346
M. Taimana ELLACOTT (AUT) 595
M. Eric MINARDI (FN) 327
M. Daniel TUAHU (DVD) 113
M. Teriiorai OOPA (DVD) 10
M. Teva ROHFRITSCH (PRV) 2793
M. Tauhiti NENA (REG) 8545
M. Gaston TONG SANG (UMP) 4604
M. John TEFAN (DVD) 878
M. Jean-Paul TUAIVA (DVD) 6692

So run off between Neva (30.52%) and Tuaiva (23.9%).

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

In my constituency, the PS candidate would have 40% in the votes cast in person, against 20% for Fredo. Overall turnout would be 22%, including 14% by interwebs. She seems to be doing much better than Hollande, while Fredo is polling way less than Sarko. Servan-Schreiber would apparently be in third, seemingly with Balkany trailing. In South America, the EELV-PS candidate seems very optimistic.

Turnout seems downright horrible (single digits or low double digits) around the world. This likely opens the door to weird fluke results.

http://frenchmorning.com/ny/2012/06/02/soiree-electorale-en-direct/

http://www.slate.fr/france/57045/legislatives-francais-etranger-estimations

[Formerly Californian Tony]

In my constituency, the PS candidate would have 40% in the votes cast in person, against 20% for Fredo. Overall turnout would be 22%, including 14% by interwebs. She seems to be doing much better than Hollande, while Fredo is polling way less than Sarko. Servan-Schreiber would apparently be in third, seemingly with Balkany trailing. In South America, the EELV-PS candidate seems very optimistic.

Turnout seems downright horrible (single digits or low double digits) around the world. This likely opens the door to weird fluke results.

http://frenchmorning.com/ny/2012/06/02/soiree-electorale-en-direct/

http://www.slate.fr/france/57045/legislatives-francais-etranger-estimations

40% ? I guess that's good news ahead of the runoff ?

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

In my constituency, the PS candidate would have 40% in the votes cast in person, against 20% for Fredo. Overall turnout would be 22%, including 14% by interwebs. She seems to be doing much better than Hollande, while Fredo is polling way less than Sarko. Servan-Schreiber would apparently be in third, seemingly with Balkany trailing. In South America, the EELV-PS candidate seems very optimistic.

Turnout seems downright horrible (single digits or low double digits) around the world. This likely opens the door to weird fluke results.

http://frenchmorning.com/ny/2012/06/02/soiree-electorale-en-direct/

http://www.slate.fr/france/57045/legislatives-francais-etranger-estimations

40% ? I guess that's good news ahead of the runoff ?

Quite. I've always said that Fredo is a terrible candidate when everybody else was banking on a legitimist UMP vote in the constituency. I would have been worried if Fredo had been kicked out by a stronger guy like Servan-Schreiber, but all the divers droite looneys cancelled each other out and I think that their voters probably won't care much about voting in the runoff, especially for a candidate like Fredo who was the focus of all attacks by the DVD candidates. Turnout is so pathetically low at this point that anything is possible, but I'm confident that the PS will win here. Not that I care all that much, but just the thought of having Fredo as my 'other' MP when my 'real' MP is retarded enough as it is... it's just torture.

[Formerly Californian Tony]

In my constituency, the PS candidate would have 40% in the votes cast in person, against 20% for Fredo. Overall turnout would be 22%, including 14% by interwebs. She seems to be doing much better than Hollande, while Fredo is polling way less than Sarko. Servan-Schreiber would apparently be in third, seemingly with Balkany trailing. In South America, the EELV-PS candidate seems very optimistic.

Turnout seems downright horrible (single digits or low double digits) around the world. This likely opens the door to weird fluke results.

http://frenchmorning.com/ny/2012/06/02/soiree-electorale-en-direct/

http://www.slate.fr/france/57045/legislatives-francais-etranger-estimations

40% ? I guess that's good news ahead of the runoff ?

Quite. I've always said that Fredo is a terrible candidate when everybody else was banking on a legitimist UMP vote in the constituency. I would have been worried if Fredo had been kicked out by a stronger guy like Servan-Schreiber, but all the divers droite looneys cancelled each other out and I think that their voters probably won't care much about voting in the runoff, especially for a candidate like Fredo who was the focus of all attacks by the DVD candidates. Turnout is so pathetically low at this point that anything is possible, but I'm confident that the PS will win here. Not that I care all that much, but just the thought of having Fredo as my 'other' MP when my 'real' MP is retarded enough as it is... it's just torture.

Indeed. Watching retards getting their ass kicked is one of the best moments in politics (so rare, unfortunately).

[Formerly Californian Tony]

Just voted for the PS sacrificial lamb in my overwhelmingly right-wing constituency : Jacques Lollioz (yeah, good one for the LOLgislatives site ). If we break 25% this will probably be a nice result for the PS.

[big bad fab]

Allez Valérie !

Voted at midday for my own UMP sacrificial lamb
Stupid redistricting... I could have voted for a centrist in a swinging constituency

[Formerly Californian Tony]

Allez Valérie !

Voted at midday for my own UMP sacrificial lamb
Stupid redistricting... I could have voted for a centrist in a swinging constituency

We should trade our constituencies off.

[Sibboleth]

So let's start with Limousin because it should be easy enough. I've decided to try giving the constituencies names, just to amuse myself. Don't take it too seriously.

Creuse 1 (Marche) - PS
Corrèze 1 (Tulle-Ussel) - PS won in the first round.
Corrèze 2 (Brive-la-Gaillarde) - PS
Haute-Vienne 1 (Limoges-Ambazac) - PS
Haute-Vienne 2 (Limoges-Saint-Junien) - PS
Haute-Vieene 3 (Limoges-Bellac) - PS

A most difficult task, as you can imagine.

[Senator MaxQue]

Just voted for the PS sacrificial lamb in my overwhelmingly right-wing constituency : Jacques Lollioz (yeah, good one for the LOLgislatives site ). If we break 25% this will probably be a nice result for the PS.

Then, you should be quite happy, because it's over 25!

[Vasall des Midas]

And unlike MA-3 Republicans in 2010, and NY-22 Democrats this year, your sacrificial lamb is at least not named Lamb.

[Formerly Californian Tony]

Just voted for the PS sacrificial lamb in my overwhelmingly right-wing constituency : Jacques Lollioz (yeah, good one for the LOLgislatives site ). If we break 25% this will probably be a nice result for the PS.

Then, you should be quite happy, because it's over 25!

Over 30 actually ! Didn't expect it. We won't win, but maybe we can give Pécresse a run for her money.

And unlike MA-3 Republicans in 2010, and NY-22 Democrats this year, your sacrificial lamb is at least not named Lamb.

Check out the first three letters of his name : that's not much better.

[Andrea]

The PS candidate in Vaucluse III decided to ignore Aubry and stand in the second round claiming that withdrawing would be like choosing between plague and cholera.

Paris IV: Brigitte Kuster withdraws. So Bernard Debré is basically elected

Bouche du Rhone XIII: as expected PS withdraws to support FG. So FG vs FN duel

Bouche du Rhone XVI: UMP withdraws calling to stop the PS candidate...so calling to vote for FN

Yvelines III: DVD withdraws to support Guaino (who will easily win the runoff)

[Andrea]

Marine Le Pen has urged her voters to defeat

François Pupponi (PS, Val-d'Oise)
Jack Lang (PS, Vosges)
Ségolène Neuville PS, Pyrennées-Orientales)
Slimane Tir (EELV, Nord).
Manuel Aeschlimann (UMP, Hauts-de-Seine)
Georges Tron (UMP, Essonne)
Xavier Bertrand (UMP, Aisne)
Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet (UMP, Essonne)

She hinted that a couple of FN candidates qualified for triangulaires may withdraw

[Kuu ülevaade olulisematest]

Oh, wow, I just now realized why Jack Lang's name had always seemed so familiar.

[Formerly Californian Tony]

NKM isn't on the list ? I thought she was Le Pen's pet peeve in the UMP.