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| | |-+  French legislative election 2012
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Author Topic: French legislative election 2012  (Read 29183 times)
Hal Jam
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« Reply #300 on: June 17, 2012, 04:53:55 pm »
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Hérault's 6th constituency may be the tightest race in the elections: PS wins with 39,82%, 10 votes ahead of the UMP candidate. The deputy originally elected in 2007, doctor Paul-Henri Cugnenc, died a week into his second mandate.

One left pickup in Alsace - Bas-Rhin's second 52,2-47,8. Has gone for the left only once in 1981.
I'd hate to appear too self-satisfied, but I got those 2 right Wink
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"F**k you Lion, I'm the King !" Mr Bear

IN NATE WE TRUST

Long Live Bretzels !


That's not how the left works.  We make swords out of our enemy's iron thrones.

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Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay
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« Reply #301 on: June 17, 2012, 04:54:37 pm »
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Duflot would give its sit to its substitute, since she is in the govt, then instead of 18 sits, Greens would have 17 since her substitute is PS (in order not to have her as dissident), what if they had only 15 sits...

One more example of the greatness of our system...
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14/01/2011: Tunisia!!
11/02/2011: Egypt!
20/10/2011: Libya
02/09/2013: Syria...

Religion Tradition is people's opium...

Money became totally unfair.
Money became totally senseless.
Let's make Money totally useless...

??/??/20??: EU UU!!
big bad fab
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« Reply #302 on: June 17, 2012, 04:55:22 pm »
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fab you were right : Gorges in Eure-et-Loir-1 makes it, but really close...

Actually, I had predicted that before even the first round, when Fab didn't predict it until after the first round Smiley

I'm pleased by my predictions overall, with 92% correct thus far. Especially constituencies like Drome-2, Isere-7, Seine-et-Marne-7 where I disagreed with Fab Tongue Not so happy about BDR-11 and Yonne-1, where Julio can come and drool on my ruins.


I have to count my own failures. Probably a bit more than you. As susual Sad Tongue
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Enjoy the French elections !
Enjoy polling analysis !
Enjoy my tracker !

http://sondages2012.wordpress.com/
Hal Jam
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« Reply #303 on: June 17, 2012, 04:59:11 pm »
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Manche-3 is a large 52,4 left victory. I only put 49,99 for the left there, but it was tossup in my mind.
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"F**k you Lion, I'm the King !" Mr Bear

IN NATE WE TRUST

Long Live Bretzels !


That's not how the left works.  We make swords out of our enemy's iron thrones.

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« Reply #304 on: June 17, 2012, 05:19:17 pm »
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Hilarious that neither MLP or Mélanchon won in Pas-de-Calais.
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #305 on: June 17, 2012, 05:22:16 pm »
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Green underperformance (that is, when compared to a more 'normal'  Left candidate) very obvious...
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Hal Jam
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« Reply #306 on: June 17, 2012, 05:25:09 pm »
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As I felt it coming, Saône-et-Loire is all left, even if it's by only 380 votes in the 4th !
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"F**k you Lion, I'm the King !" Mr Bear

IN NATE WE TRUST

Long Live Bretzels !


That's not how the left works.  We make swords out of our enemy's iron thrones.

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Andrea
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« Reply #307 on: June 17, 2012, 05:27:24 pm »
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Basically everything officially declared except for the 11 expats constituencies (which will likely break 8 to 3 for the Left)?
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« Reply #308 on: June 17, 2012, 05:35:28 pm »
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Green underperformance (that is, when compared to a more 'normal'  Left candidate) very obvious...

Just looked at that narrow Strasbourg seat and thought the same.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #309 on: June 17, 2012, 05:52:58 pm »
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Here's the final result, assuming French abroad seats went as I've been told :

FG : 10
PS : 280
DVG : 22
PRG : 12
EELV : 17

Total left : 341

Regionalists : 2
MoDem : 2

AC : 2
PR : 6
NC : 12
DVD : 15
UMP : 194

Total right : 229

FN : 2
EXD : 1
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« Reply #310 on: June 17, 2012, 06:01:51 pm »

Green underperformance (that is, when compared to a more 'normal'  Left candidate) very obvious...

Just looked at that narrow Strasbourg seat and thought the same.

Strasbourg is not the place to notice it, because Buchmann did very well in what has always been the most right-wing of seats in Strasbourg and always the least likely to switch to the left. In Firminy, Toulouse-Balma and even Bergerac it is a bit obvious (but not massive). And overall, there was a Green underperformance of sorts, but I wouldn't make a huge case out of it, and all things considered, PS dissidents who were eliminated in the first round transferred their votes in a rather orderly fashion to EELV despite any bad blood.
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Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay
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« Reply #311 on: June 17, 2012, 06:47:11 pm »
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Ah and, since it has been a kind of side debate here for these elections, 155 women have been elected députée on 577, against 103 during last legislature, that is 27% against 18,5% before.

Le Monde gives it:

PS: 107 on 273 elected are women
UMP: 26/191
EELV: 9/16 (so that is 16 now, it never stops to drop...)
DVG: 4
PRG:3
FdG:2
DVD:2
MRC:1
FN: 1
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14/01/2011: Tunisia!!
11/02/2011: Egypt!
20/10/2011: Libya
02/09/2013: Syria...

Religion Tradition is people's opium...

Money became totally unfair.
Money became totally senseless.
Let's make Money totally useless...

??/??/20??: EU UU!!
Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay
tsionebreicruoc
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« Reply #312 on: June 17, 2012, 07:02:40 pm »
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Droite Populaire:

20 députés elected on 41 candidates.
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14/01/2011: Tunisia!!
11/02/2011: Egypt!
20/10/2011: Libya
02/09/2013: Syria...

Religion Tradition is people's opium...

Money became totally unfair.
Money became totally senseless.
Let's make Money totally useless...

??/??/20??: EU UU!!
adma
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« Reply #313 on: June 17, 2012, 08:43:42 pm »
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Blonde hottie + despot




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Tender Branson
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« Reply #314 on: June 17, 2012, 11:44:18 pm »
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Who are the 2 FN'ers ?

Le Pen probably and ?

PS: Who is the blonde one next to the old Le Pen ?
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     RIP, Leonard.
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« Reply #315 on: June 17, 2012, 11:47:41 pm »
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Le Pen and Collard. Collard won by about 1% in a 3-way race between FN, UMP, and PS. He won the 2nd Gard district, which is on the coast in Languedoc.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #316 on: June 18, 2012, 01:20:08 am »
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Who are the 2 FN'ers ?

Le Pen probably and ?

PS: Who is the blonde one next to the old Le Pen ?

Marion Maréchal-Le Pen, which won in Vaucluse-3. Marine lost in Nord, through.
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Zuza
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« Reply #317 on: June 18, 2012, 01:22:53 am »
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Le Pen and Collard.

Beauty and beast Smiley.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #318 on: June 18, 2012, 02:49:05 am »
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A bad news for you, Hashemite.

As Le Foll was elected MP, his European seat is going to the next on the PS list...

which is your "beloved" Isabelle Thomas.

(To be exhaustive, the New Centrist Damien Abad, elected in Ain is replaced Brussels by Karine Fenocchi, president of Corse New Center and opposition councillor in Ajaccio).
« Last Edit: June 18, 2012, 02:54:30 am by Chemistry & Sleep Deprivation »Logged
Antonio V
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« Reply #319 on: June 18, 2012, 03:10:02 am »
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I'm sorry, but I definitely don't find Le Pen 3.0 hot. She's all right, but her face is pretty meh. Or maybe I'm just biased against fascists. Tongue
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Antonio V
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« Reply #320 on: June 18, 2012, 06:06:41 am »
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Guigou, Bartolone and Glavany officially running for presidency of the assembly.

Le Roux should take the lead of the PS group (which, in the end, is more important), and Bertrand (a Fillon supporter) will apparently run for the UMP group against incumbent Jacob (a Copéist).
« Last Edit: June 18, 2012, 06:09:29 am by Objectif atteint »Logged

Andrea
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« Reply #321 on: June 18, 2012, 06:25:17 am »
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For the experts here, in how many constituencies won by Sarko in presidential run off a Left candidate got elected yesterday? And in how many constituencies carried by Hollande, the Right held on?
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Antonio V
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« Reply #322 on: June 18, 2012, 06:32:26 am »
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For the experts here, in how many constituencies won by Sarko in presidential run off a Left candidate got elected yesterday? And in how many constituencies carried by Hollande, the Right held on?

I'm sure Hash had made a map back in time, but I'm not sure where it is.
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adma
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« Reply #323 on: June 18, 2012, 06:41:59 am »
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I'm sorry, but I definitely don't find Le Pen 3.0 hot. She's all right, but her face is pretty meh. Or maybe I'm just biased against fascists. Tongue

It's more the idea of her being "hot" (esp. as voter bait).

And re my photo comparison: keep this in mind as a reminder of far-right "aptitude" http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gmCHftCzAmg
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rob in cal
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« Reply #324 on: June 18, 2012, 10:59:22 am »
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Has anyone seen a list of all the close second round elections and who won them.  It seems to me as if there were alot of close ones. 
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