Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 29, 2016, 08:25:38 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  International Elections (Moderator: Hash)
| | |-+  French legislative election 2012
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 8 9 10 11 12 [13] 14 15 Print
Author Topic: French legislative election 2012  (Read 42409 times)
Watermelon sin Jamón
Zanas46
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2645
France



View Profile WWW
« Reply #300 on: June 17, 2012, 04:53:55 pm »
Ignore

Hérault's 6th constituency may be the tightest race in the elections: PS wins with 39,82%, 10 votes ahead of the UMP candidate. The deputy originally elected in 2007, doctor Paul-Henri Cugnenc, died a week into his second mandate.

One left pickup in Alsace - Bas-Rhin's second 52,2-47,8. Has gone for the left only once in 1981.
I'd hate to appear too self-satisfied, but I got those 2 right Wink
Logged

IN NATE WE still TRUST?

This is the year when we realize that what we frivolously call "JUNK POLLS" and what we frivolously call "gold standard polls" are all actually just polls and are overrated individually, while also underrated collectively. Hopefully.

My French blog
Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay
tsionebreicruoc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6197
France


View Profile
« Reply #301 on: June 17, 2012, 04:54:37 pm »
Ignore

Duflot would give its sit to its substitute, since she is in the govt, then instead of 18 sits, Greens would have 17 since her substitute is PS (in order not to have her as dissident), what if they had only 15 sits...

One more example of the greatness of our system...
Logged

14/01/2011: Tunisia!!
11/02/2011: Egypt!
20/10/2011: Libya
02/09/2013: Syria...

Religion Tradition is people's opium...

Money became totally unfair.
Money became totally senseless.
Let's make Money totally useless...

??/??/20??: EU UU!!





Don't mess with Belgians, they got...

...Mitraillettes

(name of that Belgian sandwich, also means 'assault riffle')
big bad fab
filliatre
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13871
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: 1.42, S: 4.87

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #302 on: June 17, 2012, 04:55:22 pm »
Ignore

fab you were right : Gorges in Eure-et-Loir-1 makes it, but really close...

Actually, I had predicted that before even the first round, when Fab didn't predict it until after the first round Smiley

I'm pleased by my predictions overall, with 92% correct thus far. Especially constituencies like Drome-2, Isere-7, Seine-et-Marne-7 where I disagreed with Fab Tongue Not so happy about BDR-11 and Yonne-1, where Julio can come and drool on my ruins.


I have to count my own failures. Probably a bit more than you. As susual Sad Tongue
Logged

Enjoy the French elections !
Enjoy polling analysis !
Enjoy my tracker !

http://sondages2017.wordpress.com/
Watermelon sin Jamón
Zanas46
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2645
France



View Profile WWW
« Reply #303 on: June 17, 2012, 04:59:11 pm »
Ignore

Manche-3 is a large 52,4 left victory. I only put 49,99 for the left there, but it was tossup in my mind.
Logged

IN NATE WE still TRUST?

This is the year when we realize that what we frivolously call "JUNK POLLS" and what we frivolously call "gold standard polls" are all actually just polls and are overrated individually, while also underrated collectively. Hopefully.

My French blog
You kip if you want to...
change08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9019
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #304 on: June 17, 2012, 05:19:17 pm »
Ignore

Hilarious that neither MLP or Mélanchon won in Pas-de-Calais.
Logged

Sibboleth
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 60116
United Kingdom


View Profile WWW
« Reply #305 on: June 17, 2012, 05:22:16 pm »
Ignore

Green underperformance (that is, when compared to a more 'normal'  Left candidate) very obvious...
Logged



"It is the essence of a true democracy that people should be respected individually, not simply collectively. It is also of the essence of a democracy that differences and distinctions are recognised and, where relevant, honoured. A democracy should be above all a thoughtful type of society, in these and other respects."

Richard Hoggart
Watermelon sin Jamón
Zanas46
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2645
France



View Profile WWW
« Reply #306 on: June 17, 2012, 05:25:09 pm »
Ignore

As I felt it coming, Saône-et-Loire is all left, even if it's by only 380 votes in the 4th !
Logged

IN NATE WE still TRUST?

This is the year when we realize that what we frivolously call "JUNK POLLS" and what we frivolously call "gold standard polls" are all actually just polls and are overrated individually, while also underrated collectively. Hopefully.

My French blog
Andrea
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 513
Italy
View Profile
« Reply #307 on: June 17, 2012, 05:27:24 pm »
Ignore

Basically everything officially declared except for the 11 expats constituencies (which will likely break 8 to 3 for the Left)?
Logged
You kip if you want to...
change08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9019
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #308 on: June 17, 2012, 05:35:28 pm »
Ignore

Green underperformance (that is, when compared to a more 'normal'  Left candidate) very obvious...

Just looked at that narrow Strasbourg seat and thought the same.
Logged

When do you think it will all become clear?
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 38022
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -4.87


View Profile
« Reply #309 on: June 17, 2012, 05:52:58 pm »
Ignore

Here's the final result, assuming French abroad seats went as I've been told :

FG : 10
PS : 280
DVG : 22
PRG : 12
EELV : 17

Total left : 341

Regionalists : 2
MoDem : 2

AC : 2
PR : 6
NC : 12
DVD : 15
UMP : 194

Total right : 229

FN : 2
EXD : 1
Logged


"Never before in all our history have these forces [of organized money] been so united against one candidate as they stand today. They are unanimous in their hate for me—and I welcome their hatred."

-- Franklin D. Roosevelt
Hash
Hashemite
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31755
Mexico


View Profile WWW
« Reply #310 on: June 17, 2012, 06:01:51 pm »

Green underperformance (that is, when compared to a more 'normal'  Left candidate) very obvious...

Just looked at that narrow Strasbourg seat and thought the same.

Strasbourg is not the place to notice it, because Buchmann did very well in what has always been the most right-wing of seats in Strasbourg and always the least likely to switch to the left. In Firminy, Toulouse-Balma and even Bergerac it is a bit obvious (but not massive). And overall, there was a Green underperformance of sorts, but I wouldn't make a huge case out of it, and all things considered, PS dissidents who were eliminated in the first round transferred their votes in a rather orderly fashion to EELV despite any bad blood.
Logged



17:40   oakvale   the people are bad and shouldn't be allowed vote whenever possible
17:40   oakvale   The average voter wants to end austerity, bring back hanging and put all immigrants in death
Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay
tsionebreicruoc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6197
France


View Profile
« Reply #311 on: June 17, 2012, 06:47:11 pm »
Ignore

Ah and, since it has been a kind of side debate here for these elections, 155 women have been elected députée on 577, against 103 during last legislature, that is 27% against 18,5% before.

Le Monde gives it:

PS: 107 on 273 elected are women
UMP: 26/191
EELV: 9/16 (so that is 16 now, it never stops to drop...)
DVG: 4
PRG:3
FdG:2
DVD:2
MRC:1
FN: 1
Logged

14/01/2011: Tunisia!!
11/02/2011: Egypt!
20/10/2011: Libya
02/09/2013: Syria...

Religion Tradition is people's opium...

Money became totally unfair.
Money became totally senseless.
Let's make Money totally useless...

??/??/20??: EU UU!!





Don't mess with Belgians, they got...

...Mitraillettes

(name of that Belgian sandwich, also means 'assault riffle')
Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay
tsionebreicruoc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6197
France


View Profile
« Reply #312 on: June 17, 2012, 07:02:40 pm »
Ignore

Droite Populaire:

20 députés elected on 41 candidates.
Logged

14/01/2011: Tunisia!!
11/02/2011: Egypt!
20/10/2011: Libya
02/09/2013: Syria...

Religion Tradition is people's opium...

Money became totally unfair.
Money became totally senseless.
Let's make Money totally useless...

??/??/20??: EU UU!!





Don't mess with Belgians, they got...

...Mitraillettes

(name of that Belgian sandwich, also means 'assault riffle')
adma
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 785
View Profile
« Reply #313 on: June 17, 2012, 08:43:42 pm »
Ignore

Blonde hottie + despot




Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 39414
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09


View Profile
« Reply #314 on: June 17, 2012, 11:44:18 pm »
Ignore

Who are the 2 FN'ers ?

Le Pen probably and ?

PS: Who is the blonde one next to the old Le Pen ?
Logged
Negusa Nagast 🚀
Nagas
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2740
United States


View Profile
« Reply #315 on: June 17, 2012, 11:47:41 pm »
Ignore

Le Pen and Collard. Collard won by about 1% in a 3-way race between FN, UMP, and PS. He won the 2nd Gard district, which is on the coast in Languedoc.
Logged

MaxQue
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10204
Canada


View Profile
« Reply #316 on: June 18, 2012, 01:20:08 am »
Ignore

Who are the 2 FN'ers ?

Le Pen probably and ?

PS: Who is the blonde one next to the old Le Pen ?

Marion Maréchal-Le Pen, which won in Vaucluse-3. Marine lost in Nord, through.
Logged
Zuza
Full Member
***
Posts: 218
Russian Federation
View Profile
« Reply #317 on: June 18, 2012, 01:22:53 am »
Ignore

Le Pen and Collard.

Beauty and beast Smiley.
Logged
MaxQue
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10204
Canada


View Profile
« Reply #318 on: June 18, 2012, 02:49:05 am »
Ignore

A bad news for you, Hashemite.

As Le Foll was elected MP, his European seat is going to the next on the PS list...

which is your "beloved" Isabelle Thomas.

(To be exhaustive, the New Centrist Damien Abad, elected in Ain is replaced Brussels by Karine Fenocchi, president of Corse New Center and opposition councillor in Ajaccio).
« Last Edit: June 18, 2012, 02:54:30 am by Chemistry & Sleep Deprivation »Logged
When do you think it will all become clear?
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 38022
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -4.87


View Profile
« Reply #319 on: June 18, 2012, 03:10:02 am »
Ignore

I'm sorry, but I definitely don't find Le Pen 3.0 hot. She's all right, but her face is pretty meh. Or maybe I'm just biased against fascists. Tongue
Logged


"Never before in all our history have these forces [of organized money] been so united against one candidate as they stand today. They are unanimous in their hate for me—and I welcome their hatred."

-- Franklin D. Roosevelt
When do you think it will all become clear?
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 38022
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -4.87


View Profile
« Reply #320 on: June 18, 2012, 06:06:41 am »
Ignore

Guigou, Bartolone and Glavany officially running for presidency of the assembly.

Le Roux should take the lead of the PS group (which, in the end, is more important), and Bertrand (a Fillon supporter) will apparently run for the UMP group against incumbent Jacob (a Copéist).
« Last Edit: June 18, 2012, 06:09:29 am by Objectif atteint »Logged


"Never before in all our history have these forces [of organized money] been so united against one candidate as they stand today. They are unanimous in their hate for me—and I welcome their hatred."

-- Franklin D. Roosevelt
Andrea
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 513
Italy
View Profile
« Reply #321 on: June 18, 2012, 06:25:17 am »
Ignore

For the experts here, in how many constituencies won by Sarko in presidential run off a Left candidate got elected yesterday? And in how many constituencies carried by Hollande, the Right held on?
Logged
When do you think it will all become clear?
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 38022
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -4.87


View Profile
« Reply #322 on: June 18, 2012, 06:32:26 am »
Ignore

For the experts here, in how many constituencies won by Sarko in presidential run off a Left candidate got elected yesterday? And in how many constituencies carried by Hollande, the Right held on?

I'm sure Hash had made a map back in time, but I'm not sure where it is.
Logged


"Never before in all our history have these forces [of organized money] been so united against one candidate as they stand today. They are unanimous in their hate for me—and I welcome their hatred."

-- Franklin D. Roosevelt
adma
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 785
View Profile
« Reply #323 on: June 18, 2012, 06:41:59 am »
Ignore

I'm sorry, but I definitely don't find Le Pen 3.0 hot. She's all right, but her face is pretty meh. Or maybe I'm just biased against fascists. Tongue

It's more the idea of her being "hot" (esp. as voter bait).

And re my photo comparison: keep this in mind as a reminder of far-right "aptitude" http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gmCHftCzAmg
Logged
rob in cal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1020
View Profile
« Reply #324 on: June 18, 2012, 10:59:22 am »
Ignore

Has anyone seen a list of all the close second round elections and who won them.  It seems to me as if there were alot of close ones. 
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 8 9 10 11 12 [13] 14 15 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines