ND-DFM Research: Romney leads Obama bei 19%

[Ben Romney]

North Dakota (Internal Democratic Poll)

Senate Race

Heitkamp(D): 49%
Berg(R): 44%

Presidential Race

Romney: 51%
Obama: 32%

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/224303-dscc-spends-75000-in-nd-as-poll-shows-heitkamp-beating-berg

[mondale84]

North Dakota (Internal Democratic Poll)

Senate Race

Heitkamp(D): 49%
Berg(R): 44%

Presidential Race

Romney: 51%
Obama: 32%

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/224303-dscc-spends-75000-in-nd-as-poll-shows-heitkamp-beating-berg

No way Obama is only at 32 and underperforming Heitkamp by 17

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Odd.

[Tender Branson]

There could be 2 reasons for this result:

It's DFM Research, which already produced one of the most crappy ND polls in 2008, showing Obama winning by 3 when he lost by 9.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/16/632664/-ND-Pres-Another-poll-shows-Obama-lead

Or ND is becoming another Wyoming or Oklahoma because of the energy boom in the state.

The problem is we'll probably not getting more polls from credible sources such as PPP, Mason-Dixon or SurveyUSA.

Anyway, here is the release:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/91567464/DFM-Survey-Memo-4-27

[Tender Branson]

The party ID of this poll (R+13) isn't that much different to 2008's exit poll (R+10).

Which either means Obama loses a ton of Democrats to Romney, or Obama loses Independents by a ton (McCain already won them by 49-47 in 2008).

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Database entry: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3820120426193

[Fargobison]

I'm not sure about the senate race numbers, they seem a bit too optimistic for Heitkamp but it will be a close race simply because a lot of people don't like Berg.

As for Romney-Obama I think the 19% is pretty close to what we'll see in November. Obama isn't very popular in ND anymore, he had a good run in 2008 but his energy policies and the health care bill are not well liked.

[nkpatel1279]

In 2000/2004 Bush carried ND by 61-33 against Gore,63-36 against Kerry.
Romney-R carries the Dakotas and Montana-D by a double digit margin.

[Adam Griffin]

With polling like this, who needs robo-surveys?

For discussion's sake, let's assume the poll is somewhat accurate. Based on the political affiliations polled (D, R, I), the result would reflect a scenario in ND where Republicans (42% of poll/state) are virtually all on-board with Mitt Romney and virtually all Democrats are on-board with President Obama (29% of poll/state). This would produce an identical base:

Obama - 29%
Romney - 42%

Independents (29% of the poll/state) would consist of roughly three-fifths that are completely undecided or support third-party candidates (17% of poll/state), and of the remaining two-fifths (12% of the poll/state), Romney would have two-thirds support while Obama would pick up about about one-fourth.

So, when you add all that up:

Romney - 50%
Obama - 33%

I think some of the factors in this poll fit well with this scenario - particularly regarding the independent trends - and mimics the national mood quite well. Plenty of rounding errors in my approach, though.