Republic of Vermont?

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Well? In the years following the Revolution and before the ratification of the Constitution sometime in Washington's first term, Vermont existed as sort of an independent Republic. However, it eventually became the fourteenth state to ratify the Constitution and join the Union. What if the movement to keep it out of the U.S. succeeded--for various reasons, including say rejection of the constitution or fear of being bullied by NY or somethin' like that--and Vermont stayed a Republic? I'm not an expert on VT politics, but in terms of effect on the US, I can see a divergence from OTL coming fairly early, namely the 1796 election. Adams, after all, won only by three votes, and VT was four. That, of course, could lead to major divergences, over two hundred years later. However, inside Vermont, what are the politics like? What is its relationship with the U.S. and Canada? Does it as a nation have a major effect on anything outside its own geographical region?

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Notable changes to 1796


Former Secretary of State Thomas Jefferson (Republican-Virginia) 67 electoral votes
Vice President John Adams (Federalist-Massachusetts) 68 electoral votes
Former Minister to Great Britain Thomas Pinckney (Federalist-South Carolina) 55 electoral votes
Senator Aaron Burr (Republican-New York) 30 electoral votes
Others: 48 electoral votes

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

If Vermont stays out, the election of 1796 is likely to play out rather differently.  New York claimed Vermont, and it is quite possible that in 1794 when the Whiskey Rebellion gets suppressed in Western Pennsylvania, New York will seek to gain control of Vermont by force of arms under the pretext that it is suppressing another band of rebels.  Events could easily turn sour real fast, especially if the New England states decide to back Vermont.

Hmmm... I like where this is going. That could result in a huge debate over states' rights and leave a large issue for the two parties to stand on. As well, with NY going against New England, could the nation be in a state of (contained) civil war by 1796?