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R2D2
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« on: April 29, 2012, 10:53:13 am »
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Who do you think will be candidates for President in 2020?

I'm gonna say Cory Booker, Aaron Shock, maybe Paul Ryan or Rand Paul...who else?
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« Reply #1 on: April 29, 2012, 10:56:51 am »
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Susana Martinez -she would be a former two-term governor looking for another gig by that point.  This is assuming she doesn't run for a Senate seat in 2018, though...     
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« Reply #2 on: April 29, 2012, 11:12:28 am »
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Definitely not Aaron Schock...
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R2D2
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« Reply #3 on: April 29, 2012, 11:48:25 am »
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Definitely not Aaron Schock...

Why not?
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« Reply #4 on: April 29, 2012, 12:18:11 pm »
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^

I'm for him running. He'll probably be in leadership by then or the Senate. And Mia Love, good chance she becomes a Senator by then.

Also big fan of Martinez
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« Reply #5 on: April 29, 2012, 12:54:33 pm »
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Schock would get no attention if it weren't for his youth...and I don't hold youth against people but as I posted in another thread- he seems much younger then he actually is. I don't like to see some one running the show who looks and talks like he could be running for high school class president...he and Paul Ryan need to lower their voices and gain some weight so they won't get IDed when buying booze
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« Reply #6 on: April 29, 2012, 01:09:07 pm »
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Schock would get no attention if it weren't for his youth...and I don't hold youth against people but as I posted in another thread- he seems much younger then he actually is. I don't like to see some one running the show who looks and talks like he could be running for high school class president...he and Paul Ryan need to lower their voices and gain some weight so they won't get IDed when buying booze

We lose the youth vote because republican candidates are old fat and boring, or cardboard like Romney. If not President, he needs to eventually be a VP pick.
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« Reply #7 on: April 29, 2012, 02:08:33 pm »
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Schock would get no attention if it weren't for his youth...and I don't hold youth against people but as I posted in another thread- he seems much younger then he actually is. I don't like to see some one running the show who looks and talks like he could be running for high school class president...he and Paul Ryan need to lower their voices and gain some weight so they won't get IDed when buying booze

We lose the youth vote because republican candidates are old fat and boring, or cardboard like Romney. If not President, he needs to eventually be a VP pick.
I agree younger people are necessary- but why not some one like Duncan Hunter or Adam Kinzinger? They are young, handsome, and veterans- sure I am partial but that gives them the gravitas necessary to be taken seriously at such a young age- not to mention they wouldn't sound like 12 year olds if you closed your eyes
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #8 on: April 30, 2012, 05:24:24 am »

Cory Booker
Andrew Cuomo or Kirsten Gillibrand
Kamala Harris or Gavin Newsom
John Hickenlooper
Tim Kaine
Amy Klobuchar
Lisa Madigan
Martin O'Malley
Brian Schweitzer
Debbie Wasserman Schultz

Sam Brownback
Chris Christie
Ken Cuccinelli
Jeff Flake
Nikki Haley
Bobby Jindal
Susana Martinez
Rob McKenna
Rand Paul
Mike Pence
Marco Rubio
Paul Ryan or Scott Walker
John Thune
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« Reply #9 on: April 30, 2012, 08:55:42 am »
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Another good group of candidates.
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« Reply #10 on: April 30, 2012, 09:18:26 am »
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Cory Booker
Andrew Cuomo or Kirsten Gillibrand
Kamala Harris or Gavin Newsom
John Hickenlooper
Tim Kaine
Amy Klobuchar
Lisa Madigan
Martin O'Malley
Brian Schweitzer
Debbie Wasserman Schultz

Sam Brownback
Chris Christie
Ken Cuccinelli
Jeff Flake
Nikki Haley
Bobby Jindal
Susana Martinez
Rob McKenna
Rand Paul
Mike Pence
Marco Rubio
Paul Ryan or Scott Walker
John Thune

Not a single veteran in that crop...
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« Reply #11 on: April 30, 2012, 10:30:03 am »
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Kamala Harris or Gavin Newsom

You don't think Jerry Brown will be re-nominated in 14?  If one of these guys is first elected in 18, it'd be like if Rubio ran now.  I assume plenty of people first elected as a senator or governor between now and 16 maybe 17 will get chatter and some may run, but 18 seems pushing it a bit.

Edit: It's possible a downturn could put Brown in Patterson's position where the incumbent can't win but his party could easily but it's a semi-rare, specific circumstance.
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« Reply #12 on: April 30, 2012, 11:26:36 am »
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^

I'm for him running. He'll probably be in leadership by then or the Senate. And Mia Love, good chance she becomes a Senator by then.

Also big fan of Martinez
No Chafettz is next in line after Orin Hatch retires in 2018 I would guess.

The GOP base on the Aaron Schock point does not like congressional experience alone for a presidential candidate. They usually take a liking to former governors. Schock could always challenge Patt Quinn though in 2014 though for the Illinois Governorship...
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Miles
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« Reply #13 on: April 30, 2012, 02:40:30 pm »
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I think Crist should oust Scott as Governor in 2014 as Democrat and then go for the Presidential nomination in 2020.
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R2D2
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« Reply #14 on: April 30, 2012, 03:32:36 pm »
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Could happen.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #15 on: May 01, 2012, 06:05:06 am »

Kamala Harris or Gavin Newsom

You don't think Jerry Brown will be re-nominated in 14?  If one of these guys is first elected in 18, it'd be like if Rubio ran now.  I assume plenty of people first elected as a senator or governor between now and 16 maybe 17 will get chatter and some may run, but 18 seems pushing it a bit.

Edit: It's possible a downturn could put Brown in Patterson's position where the incumbent can't win but his party could easily but it's a semi-rare, specific circumstance.

Well, I was also thinking maybe Boxer retires in 2016 since she's getting old, then one of them could run for her senate seat.  But even if that happens, I guess it's still pretty unlikely that they'd then run for prez in 2020, so I guess they should be more likely 2024 candidates.

What about Antonio Villaraigosa?  Does he have any ambitions to run for higher office?  Did his affair and ensuing divorce destroy the chances of that happening, or would all of that be treated like old news that no one cares about anymore by the time he runs for something?
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« Reply #16 on: May 01, 2012, 06:20:47 am »

Btw, my generic thinking on the Democratic nomination in 2020 is as follows:

If the Democrats have a contested primary in 2020, then it means that the GOP must have won the 2016 presidential election.  The question is then, who was the Democratic nominee in 2016?  The two most likely possibilities are:

1) Hillary Clinton
2) a man

(#3: A woman who is not Hillary Clinton is also possible though far less likely, as there aren't that many likely female 2016 presidential candidates aside from HRC, so it's not clear that any of them runs in '16, or that they would necessarily win the nomination.)

If Hillary Clinton runs in 2016, then I expect that a lot of the candidates who might otherwise want to run that year sit it out to avoid going up against the Clinton juggernaut.  If so, then 2020 might see several of those people who we're now calling 2016 candidates (e.g., Cuomo, O'Malley, Schweitzer) finally decide to run.

OTOH, if the 2016 Democratic nominee is a man, then there'll be a strong push for him to pick a female running mate, and the two most obvious options are Gillibrand and Klobuchar.  If the ticket then goes on to lose to the GOP candidate, then, assuming that losing female running mate (whether it be Gillibrand, Klobuchar, or whoever) had a decent performance on the campaign trail, she'd be in a strong position to be the early 2020 Democratic nomination frontrunner, as she'd probably be the most well known Democratic woman in the country at that point (aside from HRC, who'll be too old to run in 2020).
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« Reply #17 on: May 01, 2012, 03:17:21 pm »
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Sestak vs Susan Martinez after terms as governor.
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Frodo
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« Reply #18 on: May 01, 2012, 05:36:04 pm »
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Hillary Clinton vs. Susana Martinez would be an interesting race.  Wonder how it would play out... 
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« Reply #19 on: May 01, 2012, 11:06:55 pm »
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My God, I can't even picture those two in a room together.

Seriously though, I honestly think Martinez will be the first female president. She certainly has what it takes.
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« Reply #20 on: May 02, 2012, 09:11:22 am »
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My God, I can't even picture those two in a room together.

Seriously though, I honestly think Martinez will be the first female president. She certainly has what it takes.

All of this.
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« Reply #21 on: May 02, 2012, 09:12:00 am »
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I'm looking more towards the next generation of politicians, so most of my suggestions are a little out in left field. I'm trying to leave out people being considered for the presidency in 2016, so I'm not rehashing the same talking points.

San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro- He's young, latino, charismatic, and a raising star in a state that's looking to trend more and more democratic in coming election years because of demographic shifts. Castro would be an interesting choice to headline a gubernatorial ticket against Perry (should he seek a third term and win the Republican nomination) or another statewide office in the coming years.

Newark Mayor Cory Booker- This man is superman. He shovels snow from old ladies driveways and saves women from burning buildings. He's got a dramatic flair and a solid record behind him, and he looks like a top prospect to run against Republican darling Chris Christie in 2013. If he can take and hold the governorship for a couple terms, he could be a major player in 2020.

California Lt. Governor Gavin Newsom- As Mayor of San Francisco, Newsom earned a national following for his dramatic support for gay marriage. He's very charismatic, and is next in line to be governor of the state after Jerry Brown (especially if he declines to run for a second term, given that he would be close to 80 by 2014).

California Attorney General Kamala Harris- She aggressively perused a harsher settlement against the banks during the state-lead foreclosure malpractice lawsuit. Her work will benefit millions, and she could be a successor to Feinstein or Boxer should they retire at the end of their next senate terms. She is a women and a minority (part african-american and part indian/tamil american), which would play well to the base.
 
New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman - Both of the last two elected democratic governors of New York were previously the state's attorney generals. He lead the push with Kamala Harris to get a larger settlement against the banks.

Fmr. Ohio Attorney General Richard Cordray - He is currently leading the CFPB, and he has a strong record of consumer protection though his tenure as Attorney General. He has held many state wide offices (including solicitor general and state treasurer), and he could be a serious challenger against Kasich for Ohio governor in 2014. If he won, he would have time to build up a national profile and he would be a logical choice from an important swing state in 2020.

Representative Tammy Baldwin - If she wins the senate race in Wisconsin this year, Baldwin will be the first openly gay senator in American history. She is fiery and passionate, and her strong stances on women's and LGBT rights would play well with the base. She has a long progressive record behind her in the house, and she will have time to build up a national reputation and influence in the senate if she is elected this year.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #22 on: May 04, 2012, 11:36:56 pm »

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Those are mostly 2024 candidates.  Maybe Booker in 2020 if he's elected governor next year, but otherwise those guys would probably wait until 2024.  (I know I listed Newsom and Harris as possible 2020ers, but as Joementum pointed out, 2024 is more likely.)
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« Reply #23 on: May 05, 2012, 06:24:56 pm »
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Btw, my generic thinking on the Democratic nomination in 2020 is as follows:

If the Democrats have a contested primary in 2020, then it means that the GOP must have won the 2016 presidential election.  The question is then, who was the Democratic nominee in 2016?  The two most likely possibilities are:

1) Hillary Clinton
2) a man

(#3: A woman who is not Hillary Clinton is also possible though far less likely, as there aren't that many likely female 2016 presidential candidates aside from HRC, so it's not clear that any of them runs in '16, or that they would necessarily win the nomination.)

If Hillary Clinton runs in 2016, then I expect that a lot of the candidates who might otherwise want to run that year sit it out to avoid going up against the Clinton juggernaut.  If so, then 2020 might see several of those people who we're now calling 2016 candidates (e.g., Cuomo, O'Malley, Schweitzer) finally decide to run.

OTOH, if the 2016 Democratic nominee is a man, then there'll be a strong push for him to pick a female running mate, and the two most obvious options are Gillibrand and Klobuchar.  If the ticket then goes on to lose to the GOP candidate, then, assuming that losing female running mate (whether it be Gillibrand, Klobuchar, or whoever) had a decent performance on the campaign trail, she'd be in a strong position to be the early 2020 Democratic nomination frontrunner, as she'd probably be the most well known Democratic woman in the country at that point (aside from HRC, who'll be too old to run in 2020).


Sounds about right.  If Hillary ran for the nomination and lost to a man (e.g. Schweizter or O'Malley), he'd probably be pressured to run with not just a woman like Klobuchar or Warren but with Clinton-loyalist Gillibrand.  So she may be the 2020 favorite if Hillary ran and lost the nomination.  But Hillary losing would also probably mean some other variable was going on, (like support for protectionism reaching fever pitch) and who knows how that issue's development would affect a subsequent primary?

If Hillary didn't run, and it's not for personal reasons, it might mean the GOP is headed for another wave (e.g. Romney wins 2012 and presides over a surging recovery) which might mean someone like Cuomo may wait out 2016 himself (unless he overcorrects for his father's miss) and he's a decent bet for 2020.

But in the internet age, people get presidential speculation before they even win their first guber or senate race.  So the 2020 nominees may still be complete no-names right now.  Still, between Hillary running for re-election, Gillibrand and Cuomo, I'd say there's a very good chance the 2020 Democratic nominee is a New Yorker.











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« Reply #24 on: May 06, 2012, 01:55:02 pm »
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^^
Those are mostly 2024 candidates.  Maybe Booker in 2020 if he's elected governor next year, but otherwise those guys would probably wait until 2024.  (I know I listed Newsom and Harris as possible 2020ers, but as Joementum pointed out, 2024 is more likely.)


I think you're pretty much right. Like I said, I was trying to avoid candidates who are already being speculated to run in 2016. I will say, though, that Booker and Cordray have a significant chance at unseating the republican governors in their respective states (Christie in NJ or Kaisch in OH) by 2014, which would give them time to build credible national profiles. By the time the 2020 campaign season starts up, both could already be re-elected and serving second terms, and will have real records to run on. Baldwin is a bit of a long shot because of her sexual orientation and outspoken liberalism, but if a republican wins 2016 and support for gay marriage continues to climb, she has a shot by 2020. I do agree it could be quite some time before the rising stars in NY and Cali make it to the national stage, if only because each state is dominated by democratic incumbents. Castro has to wait it out until Texas starts becoming more of a purple state (either 2016 or later) before he'll be a serious contender for statewide office.
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