Dutch general election - September 2012

[JulioMadrid]

Why doesn't Pvda simply form a coalition with SP?

That'd be wonderful. But it's impossible

[Secretary of Labor Earthling]

Why doesn't Pvda simply form a coalition with SP?

That'd be wonderful. But it's impossible

True. Except for Groenlinks, no other party wants to join such a coalition.

[Leftbehind]

Why doesn't Pvda simply form a coalition with SP?

Much of Pvda's recent rise has been at the expense of SP, making a leftist coalition no more likely (and indeed less likely now it'd be the former heading it).

[jeron]

They don't have to enter the cabinet. In the lower chamber, based on the polls, PvdA/VVD/D'66 will have a majority.

They could make some deal to support the government in the senate.

Yes, they could be in the same position the SGP had the past year

[後援会]

So can anyone explain the difference between the SP and the PvdA? I'm sure there are substantive ideological/policy differences.

Right?

[jeron]

So can anyone explain the difference between the SP and the PvdA? I'm sure there are substantive ideological/policy differences.

Right?

The PvdA is a classic social democratic party. The SP has communist and maoïst roots. The SP now is populist left, while PvdA is a party of administrators. In trade unions SP represents the hardliners and PvdA the moderates. SP wants to keep the retirement age at 65, PvdA wants to increase it. PvdA supports the EU, SP is very critical of it. PvdA wants to increase the possibilities of stores opening on sundays. SP wants to limit this in order to protect small entrepreneurs. Basically, SP represents people with lower incomes, PvdA represents the middle class.

[Sibboleth]

To use a (not perfect, but it will do, maybe) British example, imagine if the Labour Right and Labour Left each formed separate parties.

[afleitch]

Hmm. I got D66 in the Votematch. That was fun.

[Vasall des Midas]

Lol, just noticed this gem from the middle of my result...

PVV   
ChristenUnie   
Nederland Lokaal   
D66   

I'd noticed D66 was very low the first time, but I overlooked just HOW low.

[Insula Dei]

Why doesn't Pvda simply form a coalition with SP?

That'd be wonderful. But it's impossible

True. Except for Groenlinks, no other party wants to join such a coalition.

From what I've seen GL under Sap is too obsessed with its status as a 'responsible' party for any such adventure. Really PvdA and GL seem to try very hard to dive into the gap in the centre the incredibly shrinking CDA must have left behind. (D66 already was there, of course, though I have a hard time visualizing a typical CDA 2010 or 2006-D66 2012 voter)

In the meantime Rutte calls the PvdA 'dangerous for the Netherlands'. Well, if you're going to be ridiculous anyway,...

[Marcus Aurelius]

So can anyone explain the difference between the SP and the PvdA? I'm sure there are substantive ideological/policy differences.

Right?

Basically, PvdA is the typical "left-wing party" that wants nothing else than govern, so is advocating any right-wing policy they can in order to look "responsible". And SP is the typical left-wing party that has not yet plummeted down that road, so they stay pure and sometimes won't even think of making alliances with non-pures.

You got that everywhere around in Europe.

[freek]

Latest Peil.nl/De Hond poll:
VVD 35 (+2)
PvdA 35 (+3)
SP 20 (-3)
PVV 19 (nc)
CDA 13 (+1)
D66 11 (-2)
CU 5 (nc)
GL 4 (nc)
SGP 3 (nc)
PvdD 3 (nc)
50Plus 2 (-1)

[Insula Dei]

Prediction Time!

PvdA  36
VVD   33
SP     22
PVV   18
D66   14
CDA   12
CU     5
GL     4
SGP   2
PvdD  2
50+   2

[Marcus Aurelius]

This election has been totally depressing for me since two weeks, so I'll boycott the prediction time.

[Leftbehind]

This election has been totally depressing for me since two weeks, so I'll boycott the prediction time.

Yeah; I was at least hoping for a place outside the pack for SP - that way they'd be set up for popular disquiet with the - always assured - purple government. Now looking at risk for fourth, that's not gonna happen.

F' hell, Dutch - you could have least had the courtesy not to raise our hopes like that.

[Sibboleth]

Map of party support from last time, by province:

[freek]

Map of party support from last time, by province:

Clickable maps with the results per municipality here: http://www.zorgatlas.nl/beinvloedende-factoren/sociale-omgeving/stemgedrag/grootste-politieke-partij-2010/#breadcrumb

The largest party per municipality, and the score of the 4 largest parties (for the other parties, check the link above):

[Vasall des Midas]

That SP map is bizarre.



Marijnissen is from the westernmost dark red place and Roemer is from the cluster of five, but still... can't find anything implying a hard left tradition in the area.

[freek]

That SP map is bizarre.



Marijnissen is from the westernmost dark red place and Roemer is from the cluster of five, but still... can't find anything implying a hard left tradition in the area.

SP was not founded in Oss, where Marijnissen originates from, but it is the area where the SP managed to grow large.

Until the 1970s, the area was part of the 90+% KVP block, like the rest of the South. Oss is an industrial city. However, as in the other industrial cities in the South, CPN and PvdA remained small. All members of the Catholic Church were expected to vote KVP. However, Oss is a poor city, so there was a base for left wing parties

Some left wing radical youngsters (one of them Marijnissen) founded a local Oss chapter of the SP when it was still a Maoist splinter in the early 1970s, although the party never really focussed on ideological discussions.

Through starting their own front organisations (trade union, tenants organisation, GP office) they managed to win more and more support in Oss, becoming larger and larger. During the 1970s, chapters were founded in the surrounding towns, for example in Boxmeer, where Roemer originates from.

[Vasall des Midas]

So basically a is-that-way-because-it-got-that-way thing. With an added "there was an opening for a leftwing opposition party here" angle.

It is of course quite hilarious to remember the former KVP results in the south and then look at the CDA map.

[freek]

So basically a is-that-way-because-it-got-that-way thing. With an added "there was an opening for a leftwing opposition party here" angle.

Yes, it started quite accidentally. No tradition whatsoever, just a group of idealists who worked their asses off for decades. It had some characteristics of a cult, and the party was nick named "Red Jehovah's". Not only because of the complete dedication that was asked from members, but also because their party newspaper was sold door to door. Many members from the 1970s are still prominent members of the party. For example Marijnissen (chairman), Roemer, Jan de Wit (MP), Tiny Kox (senator), Bob Ruers (senator).

Interesting is that the SP is the wealthiest party in the Netherlands. It started with a gift from China when the party was still Maoist. This was invested in a printing press. Party brochures and newspapers were sold, not given away. Councillors, MPs, etc, have to hand over the entire income from parliament to the party, in return MPs receive a modest salary from the party.

[freek]

Latest Peil.nl/De Hond poll:
VVD 36 (+1)
PvdA 36 (+1)
SP 20 (nc)
PVV 18 (-1)
CDA 12 (-1)
D66 11 (nc)
CU 5 (nc)
GL 4 (nc)
SGP 3 (nc)
PvdD 3 (nc)
50Plus 2 (nc)

[freek]

Latest TNS NIPO poll:
VVD 35
PvdA 34
SP 21
PVV 17
D66 13
CDA 12
CU 6
50Plus 4
GL 4
SGP 2
PvdD 2

Latest EenVandaag poll:
VVD 35
PvdA 34
SP 22
PVV 17
CDA 12
D66 11
CU 7
GL 4
50Plus 3
SGP 3
PvdD 2

[freek]

Polling stations are open tomorrow between 07:30 and 21:00, except for the Caribbean islands of Bonaire, Saba and Sint Eustatius, where the polling stations open and close 6 hours later.

Exit polls will be published immediately after 21:00, first results around 22:00, more or less final results around 01:00 (while the polls in the Caribbean are still open...).

[Californian Tony]

Polling stations are open tomorrow between 0730 and 2100, except for the Caribbean islands of Bonaire, Saba and Sint Eustatius, where the polling stations open and close 6 hours later.

Exit polls will be published immediately after 2100, first results around 2200, more or less final results around 0100 (while the polls in the Caribbean are still open...).

This is the weirdest way of counting hours I've ever seen. Is that how you do in Netherlands ?