Dutch general election - September 2012

[Andrea]

VVP and PvdA head to head as predicted but at much higher level.
PVV, PS, GL and CDA are the main losers.
D66 looks solid. Always the same for Calvinists and CU. The animals confirms their fans. Good result 50+

[Phony Moderate]

....interesting. Very interesting.

[Insula Dei]

VVD 41
PvdA 40

maintained in new NOS exit poll.

[nimh]

Well my benchmarks have instantly turned useless, considering they're going to be way off for four of the main parties across the board.

Forgetting about the polls for a moment, don't forget the historical perspective:

* Best result for the VVD in its entire history
* Worst result for the CDA in its entire history (incl the sum totals of its predecessor parties)
* Worst result for the Green Left since it was founded.

[Insula Dei]

New NOS Exit poll is a carbon copy of the previous one.

[Antonio the Sixth]

When will actual results start coming up ?

[Insula Dei]

* Best result for the VVD in its entire history

Totally undeserved

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Totally deserved

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Totally deserved

[nimh]

Agreed with you on all counts, Insula

[Insula Dei]

The Eerste Kamer is going to make coalitions much more difficult than it ordinarily would be.

PvdA and VVD would need the support from D66 and CDA to have a majority there.

[jeron]

The really comic thing is that I don't see why the CDA shouldn't win 35 or 40 seats next time round.

I do. They don't have much grassroots support anymore and they get about 20 percent of the vote among people aged 65 and older, which shows just how bad their position is among people under 50. Their position in cities is apalling. Unless they find a way to apeal to these voters, they won't get more than 30 seats.

[DL]

How important is it whether VVD or PvdA is the biggest party? I assume that if PvdA crafts and leftwing coalition, it doesn't matter if VVD has more seats since they would not be part of the gov't - but I assume that if there is a "grand coalition" just of VVD and PvdA the party with more seats supplies the Prime Minister, right?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Dutch is such a strange language to listen to. It's like 1/5 Swedish, 1/5 English, 2/5 German, and 1/5 of just gurgling and mumbling

[Earthling]

The Eerste Kamer is going to make coalitions much more difficult than it ordinarily would be.

PvdA and VVD would need the support from D66 and CDA to have a majority there.

D'66 and GroenLinks are enough in the senate.

Most likely cabinet now: VVD/PvdA/D'66 (for support in the senate).

[Insula Dei]

How important is it whether VVD or PvdA is the biggest party? I assume that if PvdA crafts and leftwing coalition, it doesn't matter if VVD has more seats since they would not be part of the gov't - but I assume that if there is a "grand coalition" just of VVD and PvdA the party with more seats supplies the Prime Minister, right?

A purely leftwing or a purely rightwing coalition seems impossible. Only if Rutte knocks on Wilders' door once more does a wildy unpractical and improbable VVD/CDA/PVV/D66 coalition become a mathematical possibility.

[jeron]

How important is it whether VVD or PvdA is the biggest party? I assume that if PvdA crafts and leftwing coalition, it doesn't matter if VVD has more seats since they would not be part of the gov't - but I assume that if there is a "grand coalition" just of VVD and PvdA the party with more seats supplies the Prime Minister, right?

PvdA can't craft a left coalition. The only option is a Pvda/VVD coalition.

[nimh]

On the bright side, if the prognosis is correct, this is arguably also the best result for the broader left in Dutch electoral history ... that is to say, if you count both D66 and the party for the elderly, 50 Plus. You can justify the former, since D66 is traditionally considered on the center-left, though less so now than ever, not sure about the latter, though 50 Plus is Jan Nagel's brainchild.

PvdA + SP + D66 + GL + 50 Plus + PvdD = 76 seats.

The previous best result for the broader left was 1998, when PvdA + SP + D66 + GL got 75 seats.

This is of course of limited practical use, since D66 and the SP don't have much in common, but sociologically/historically interesting.

[Insula Dei]

Pechtold about to speak.

[nimh]

PvdA can't craft a left coalition. The only option is a Pvda/VVD coalition.

Hypothetically, you could craft a center-left coalition of PvdA + SP + CDA + D66 -- maybe the CDA, which previously said it wouldn't govern with both PvdA *and* SP, would be a little less wary now the SP has gotten so small -- but yeah, I don't see it happening. Something would have to horribly blow up in negotiations for Purple III for that to happen.

[Insula Dei]

PvdA can't craft a left coalition. The only option is a Pvda/VVD coalition.

Hypothetically, you could craft a center-left coalition of PvdA + SP + CDA + D66 -- maybe the CDA, which previously said it wouldn't govern with both PvdA *and* SP, would be a little less wary now the SP has gotten so small -- but yeah, I don't see it happening. Something would have to horribly blow up in negotiations for Purple III for that to happen.

CDA so badly needs opposition.

[jeron]

PvdA can't craft a left coalition. The only option is a Pvda/VVD coalition.

Hypothetically, you could craft a center-left coalition of PvdA + SP + CDA + D66 -- maybe the CDA, which previously said it wouldn't govern with both PvdA *and* SP, would be a little less wary now the SP has gotten so small -- but yeah, I don't see it happening. Something would have to horribly blow up in negotiations for Purple III for that to happen.

D66 also said that they'd rather govern with SP. The differences are so large that they will be hard to overcome

[Iannis]

On the bright side, if the prognosis is correct, this is arguably also the best result for the broader left in Dutch electoral history ... that is to say, if you count both D66 and the party for the elderly, 50 Plus. You can justify the former, since D66 is traditionally considered on the center-left, though less so now than ever, not sure about the latter, though 50 Plus is Jan Nagel's brainchild.

PvdA + SP + D66 + GL + 50 Plus + PvdD = 76 seats.

The previous best result for the broader left was 1998, when PvdA + SP + D66 + GL got 75 seats.

This is of course of limited practical use, since D66 and the SP don't have much in common, but sociologically/historically interesting.

Quite arguable if 50plus can be labeled as "center-left". It's more populist

[DL]

Needless to say it is now mathematically impossible for there to be a purely right of centre government as well - VVD+PVV+CDA no loner adds up at all.

[nimh]

Yeah, it would definitely be a long shot. Just slightly more likely than VVD + PVV + CDA + D66, which is not saying much since that would be unimaginable. Purple III, in some form or other, it will be.

[jeron]

On the bright side, if the prognosis is correct, this is arguably also the best result for the broader left in Dutch electoral history ... that is to say, if you count both D66 and the party for the elderly, 50 Plus. You can justify the former, since D66 is traditionally considered on the center-left, though less so now than ever, not sure about the latter, though 50 Plus is Jan Nagel's brainchild.

PvdA + SP + D66 + GL + 50 Plus + PvdD = 76 seats.

The previous best result for the broader left was 1998, when PvdA + SP + D66 + GL got 75 seats.

This is of course of limited practical use, since D66 and the SP don't have much in common, but sociologically/historically interesting.

Quite arguable if 50plus can be labeled as "center-left". It's more populist

Yes, its political leader Henk Krol used to be a VVD member

[Antonio the Sixth]

When will actual results start coming up ?