Dutch general election - September 2012

[mileslunn]

Okay, I do not know much about Dutch politics, so anyone who has any thoughts chime away.

[Colbert]

some little informations :

zeeland (isles of south-west vote for christian-protestant party)

limburg (south-est) votes for geerd wilders

frise (north) is a strong place of labour

holland (north-west) is a strong place of liberal party

east and south-east is a strong place of CDA, most catholic-wing than protestant-wing party


of course, that are generalities, but historically, those facts are still alive

[mileslunn]

Whom do the polls show in front and how are they looking as it seems not too uncommon for a third place party to pull ahead or one to fall from first to third or lower.

[Insula Dei]

Whom do the polls show in front and how are they looking as it seems not too uncommon for a third place party to pull ahead or one to fall from first to third or lower.

Right now I'd say the most likely result is the VVD as the largest party in a Tweede Kamer filled with smallish parties. PvdA probably ought to be second, though right now they're still behind the SP in most polls. A lot will depend on how the Budgetary Agreement between CDA, VVD, D66 and GL is received, I think.

Dutch politics is hugely volatile during campaigning season, though. Job Cohen virtually was Prime Minister already in the spring of 2010 and that didn't work out too hot after all.

[TheParliamentarian]

what are the latest polls here saying?

[Insula Dei]

http://www.ipsos-nederland.nl/content.asp?targetid=621

VVD: 33
SP: 28
PvdA: 22
PVV: 19
CDA: 16
D66: 15
GL: 5
CU: 6
SGP: 2
PvdD: 3
50+: 1

'plausible' coalitions:
VVD+CDA+PvdA+CU: 77/150
SP+PvdA+D66+GL(+CU) : 76/150, but obviously almost unworkable
VVD+PVV+CDA+SGP+CU: 76/150, but obviously unworkable
VVD+SP+PvdA+D66: 88/150, would be a very weird spin on Paars

No majority:
Paars+: 70/150
All Left: 74/150
All Right -PVV: 57/150

Almost impossible to form any coalition without SP or PVV with those numbers. Noone wants to work with the PVV, so the SP might find itself in a very strong position indeed. The 'Moderate Coalition' of VVD, CDA , PvdA and CU can't be relied upon to materialize in the numbers on election night and would include the two major losers of the election. Election still two months away, though.

[lilTommy]

WOW, whats happeneing with the SP? in 2010 they go 9.9%, which was a huge slap to them... what happened in 2010 vs now?
28% puts them even higher than 2006, 12% higher!
My instinct is that they are gaining off PvdA but they are up over 2010 aswell, marginally so maybe 3% but...
Are we seeing a resurgence of the Left of the Left?
In Denmark F (socialist peoples) took a hit but the vote just looked to shift to Red-Green.

[Zuza]

28% puts them even higher than 2006, 12% higher!

Not 28% but 28 of 150 seats, only 3 seats more than in 2006.

[lilTommy]

28% puts them even higher than 2006, 12% higher!

Not 28% but 28 of 150 seats, only 3 seats more than in 2006.

Thanks for clearning that up... so it does look like SP is pulling from PvdA, have they replaced them as the new left option? any reason for the bounce back from 2010

[freek]

http://www.ipsos-nederland.nl/content.asp?targetid=621

VVD: 33
SP: 28
PvdA: 22
PVV: 19
CDA: 16
D66: 15
GL: 5
CU: 6
SGP: 2
PvdD: 3
50+: 1

'plausible' coalitions:
VVD+CDA+PvdA+CU: 77/150
SP+PvdA+D66+GL(+CU) : 76/150, but obviously almost unworkable
VVD+PVV+CDA+SGP+CU: 76/150, but obviously unworkable
VVD+SP+PvdA+D66: 88/150, would be a very weird spin on Paars

No majority:
Paars+: 70/150
All Left: 74/150
All Right -PVV: 57/150

VVD/CDA/D66/GL/CU ("Kunduz"): 75/150
In 2 provinces a VVD/CDA/SP coalition is governing: 77/150

Election still two months away, though.

Four months.

[freek]

The other major pollster is Maurice de Hond/Peil.nl

SP: 29
VVD: 28
PvdA: 20
PVV: 20
D66: 17
CDA: 15
GL: 7
CU: 6
SGP: 3
PvdD: 3
Other: 2

Other = 50+, Pirate Party and the new party of former PVV MP Hero Brinkman, the OBP (Onafhankelijke Burgerpartij / Independent Citizen's Party) (all 3 parties are hovering between 0-1 seats each)

[Californian Tony]

The Dutch's habit of displaying poll results in number of seats instead of in % of votes is quite confusing.

[Insula Dei]

I am starting to get quite excited about the SP's polling numbers. Knowing the Dutch they probably won't hold up and they'll land us with some horrible abomination like 'Kunduz', though.

[freek]

CDA needs to elect its leader first. At the moment there are six candidates:

Sybrand van Haersma Buma: leader of the CDA fraction in the Second Chamber
Henk Bleker: junior minister for Agriculture
Liesbeth Spies: Home Secretary
Madeleine van Toorenburg: CDA MP
Mona Keijzer: Alderman (Alderwoman?) of Purmerend (an Amsterdam suburb in Noord-Holland)
Marcel Wintels: Chairman of a group of polytechnic schools.

There are three polls:
Maurice de Hond polled CDA voters:
Van Haersma Buma 32%
Keijzer 30%
Bleker 10%
Wintels 10%
Spies 6%
Van Toorenburg 1%

Ipsos/Synovate polled CDA voters:
Van Haersma Buma 29%
Bleker 18%
Keijzer 11%
Wintels 11%
Spies 8%
Van Toorenburg 0%
Don't know: 23%

EenVandaag polled CDA members:
Van Haersma Buma 50%
Wintels 17%
Keijzer 16%
Bleker 5%
Spies 5%
Van Toorenburg 4%

All CDA members may vote until Friday May 18, when no candidate has 50+%, a second round will follow between the top two, until June 1.

[Sibboleth]

Essentially the PvdA hasn't been sure whether it's a poacher or a gamekeeper and this has been quite, quite obvious.

The Dutch's habit of displaying poll results in number of seats instead of in % of votes is quite confusing.

They do the same in Israel, and for the same reason. It actually makes sense.

[Californian Tony]

Essentially the PvdA hasn't been sure whether it's a poacher or a gamekeeper and this has been quite, quite obvious.

The Dutch's habit of displaying poll results in number of seats instead of in % of votes is quite confusing.

They do the same in Israel, and for the same reason. It actually makes sense.

I know, but it takes a few time to get used to it.

[Zuza]

In 2 provinces a VVD/CDA/SP coalition is governing

How is it possible? Strange coalition - right and extreme left without moderates.

[freek]

In 2 provinces a VVD/CDA/SP coalition is governing

How is it possible? Strange coalition - right and extreme left without moderates.

Both CDA and VVD are moderate parties,  and the SP has shifted away from the far left in the last 20 years.  On a national level a coalition of these three parties is highly unlikely,  but the responsibilities of Dutch provinces are quite limited (infrastructural planning, construction and maintenance of regional roads and waterways, supervision of municipalities, and a minor role in social welfare and nature conservation). Differences between the parties are much smaller on the provincial level.

PvdA is considered as difficult to negotiate with,  while SP is probably more down to earth.

[jeron]

New polls by Ipsos and Peil.nl

Ipsos (May 18)
VVD  31
SP 27
PvdA 24
PVV 21
CDA 16
D66 15
Greens 5
CU 5
PvdD 3
SGP 2
50+ 1

Peil.nl (May 20)
VVD 25
SP 29
PvdA 23
PVV 23
CDA 15
D66 17
CU 6
Greens 4
SGP 3
PvdD 3
Others 2

So, it will be hard to form a coalition with a solid majority. VVD and Greens have lost seats in the last week. VVD voters seem dissatisfied with the budgettary agreement and think the VVD has given in too much to D66, Greens and CU. The Greens have internal problems.
Pvda and PVV gained in the last week and profited from growing dissatisfaction with the budgettary agreement. PVV also proposed to postpone the vote on the European Stability Mechanism until after the election, but only SP and PvdD supported this. Wilders now wants to go to court to prevent ratification  of the treaty.

[Lasitten]

Are we seeing a resurgence of the Left of the Left?

Hope so :p

It's interesting how the leftist parties are rising across Europe - situation of Die Linke seems not so bright.

[lilTommy]

Are we seeing a resurgence of the Left of the Left?

Hope so :p

It's interesting how the leftist parties are rising across Europe - situation of Die Linke seems not so bright.

Die Linke seems to be a mess right now, and have been usurped by the Pirates somehow... which is sad seeing as they are a one-issue, protest vote party. (it appears to be at least)

[crypto-fascist superhero]

Yeah, the Stasi party's hard times are really 'sad.'

[freefair]

Yeah, the Stasi party's hard times are really 'sad.'

I agree, I cannot feel sorry for the SED in disguise.

[Sibboleth]

But surely one of the Stasi parties is in government right now and, actually, provides the Chancellor?

[Californian Tony]

...and Obama is the candidate of the Slavist party. Of course.