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| | |-+  Dutch general election - September 2012
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Author Topic: Dutch general election - September 2012  (Read 25674 times)
Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #50 on: May 29, 2012, 10:39:50 am »
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The stuff that gets said about Muslims in Europe these days sounds almost identical to the things that were being said about Jews in the 1930s...just sayin'

Islamophobia pretty much completely mirrors antisemitism.  Just look at how some wackos act like there's some big Muslim conspiracy to take over Europe -- it pretty much screams Learned Elders of Zion.

No, it doesn't.

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« Reply #51 on: May 29, 2012, 11:38:46 am »
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For left wing it would be SP+PvDA+GL+D66. 

This would be like the danish government? Left + liberal centre.

Is there really a Party for the Animals in the parliament?
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« Reply #52 on: May 29, 2012, 12:42:16 pm »
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SP+PvDA+GL+D66.  Are either of those realistic or will it likely be a mixed coalition.
Would D66 go into coalition with the left parties? I'd imagine them as more likely joining a VVD-led coalition.
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Scottish Robb Stark
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« Reply #53 on: May 29, 2012, 12:44:40 pm »
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SP+PvDA+GL+D66.  Are either of those realistic or will it likely be a mixed coalition.
Would D66 go into coalition with the left parties? I'd imagine them as more likely joining a VVD-led coalition.

The Dutch left has, AFAIK, never polled above 50%. If D66 were unwilling to coalize with PvdA&co, they would never ever come to power.
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

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« Reply #54 on: May 29, 2012, 12:46:47 pm »
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For left wing it would be SP+PvDA+GL+D66. 

This would be like the danish government? Left + liberal centre.

Is there really a Party for the Animals in the parliament?

Joo, there are.
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YL
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« Reply #55 on: May 29, 2012, 12:47:30 pm »
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Is there really a Party for the Animals in the parliament?

Yes.  Such are the consequences of national list PR with a very low threshold.
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« Reply #56 on: May 29, 2012, 02:16:59 pm »
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For Right wing I am thinking of VVD + CDA + PVV and perhaps throw in the CU although I am not sure if you would consider them right wing.  For left wing it would be SP+PvDA+GL+D66. 

Now, according to polls, neither VVD+CDA+PVV+CU nor SP+PvdA+GL+D66 can get majority of seats.

And I doubt that VVD or CDA will agree to coalition with PVV again.
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« Reply #57 on: May 29, 2012, 02:25:50 pm »
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SP+PvDA+GL+D66.  Are either of those realistic or will it likely be a mixed coalition.
Would D66 go into coalition with the left parties? I'd imagine them as more likely joining a VVD-led coalition.

The Dutch left has, AFAIK, never polled above 50%. If D66 were unwilling to coalize with PvdA&co, they would never ever come to power.

For a while during the spring of 2006, polling showed PvdA doing ridiculously well to the point they would have been able to form a majority with just SP.
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« Reply #58 on: May 29, 2012, 05:03:34 pm »
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This site seems to have much data about Dutch polls:
quirksmode.org/politics/polls.html

It seems to predict centre-left government.
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« Reply #59 on: May 29, 2012, 06:05:43 pm »
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It seems to predict centre-left government.
And with SP Prime Minister. It will be interesting to see the first in Western European history government led by a party to the left of social democracy.
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« Reply #60 on: May 29, 2012, 11:30:47 pm »
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Hasn't Italy had some governments led by people from successor parties to the Communist Party of Italy?
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« Reply #61 on: May 30, 2012, 03:15:58 am »
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For a while during the spring of 2006, polling showed PvdA doing ridiculously well to the point they would have been able to form a majority with just SP.
March 2006: PvdA 61 seats, SP 18, GL 6, D66 2 seats. Oh, and PVV only had 1 seat in the polls at the time.

Back to 2012: the latest poll by Maurice de Hond/Peil.nl, May 27 (compared to the 2010 elections)

SP 30 (+15)
PVV 25 (+1), and gaining 8 seats in 1 month
VVD 24 (-7), losing 7 seats in 1 month
PvdA 21 (-9)
D66 16 (+6)
CDA 14 (-7)
GroenLinks 6 (-4)
CU 6 (+1)
SGP 3 (+1)
PvdD 3 (+1)
Others 2 (+2), apparently 3 parties are close to a seat: 50Plus, Piratenpartij and OBP.

The VVD loss may be attributed to 2 more or less related issues: VVD voters are not thrilled about the austerity measures of the Kunduz (or Spring) agreement between VVD, CDA, D66, GL and CU. Most measures turn out to be tax rises, where VVD voters prefer budget cuts, and a smaller government.

Also, the European Stabilty Mechanism-treaty was ratified by the Second Chamber this week. PVV was highly critical of the treaty, and of ratifying it before the elections. Many VVD-voters seem to agree with Wilders.
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« Reply #62 on: May 30, 2012, 01:11:09 pm »
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Hasn't Italy had some governments led by people from successor parties to the Communist Party of Italy?
Yes, but the PCI became almost Social Democratic in the end, no more left wing than PS in France. It was Euro-communist from the late 60s and then became more and more moderate. So thats not really remarkable.
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« Reply #63 on: May 30, 2012, 01:39:59 pm »
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Hasn't Italy had some governments led by people from successor parties to the Communist Party of Italy?
Yes, but the PCI became almost Social Democratic in the end, no more left wing than PS in France. It was Euro-communist from the late 60s and then became more and more moderate. So thats not really remarkable.

They became the Democrats of the Left, a SD party for sure with more lefty elements becoming the Communist Refoundation (i think)... and because its Italy none of those parties exist anymore Tongue

The very reason why the Communists lasted as long as they did was because they were more moderate and not beholden to Moscow, plus they had governed in towns all over so people knew them and weren't scare (or THAT scared of them)

We could have SYRIZA in Greece and SP in The Netherlands... huh, Europe sure swings don't it
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« Reply #64 on: May 30, 2012, 01:49:06 pm »
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Hasn't Italy had some governments led by people from successor parties to the Communist Party of Italy?
Yes, but the PCI became almost Social Democratic in the end, no more left wing than PS in France British Labour/German SPD. It was Euro-communist from the late 60s and then became more and more moderate. So thats not really remarkable.

Fixed.
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

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« Reply #65 on: May 30, 2012, 01:51:13 pm »
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Of course it isn't as though the SP is quite the party that it used to be either...
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« Reply #66 on: May 30, 2012, 01:51:31 pm »
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DS was PES party when it was in government. Finland had one government with Finnish People's Democratic League prime minister in fourties  although he was not Communist.
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« Reply #67 on: May 30, 2012, 02:56:29 pm »
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Cypros has a communist president and the cabinet is led by AKEL.
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« Reply #68 on: May 30, 2012, 06:18:33 pm »
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Cypros has a communist president and the cabinet is led by AKEL.
Yes, and also Moldova in 2001-2009 (I wrote about Western European countries).
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« Reply #69 on: May 30, 2012, 07:57:02 pm »
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How about the PVV coming in first since my understanding is whichever party comes in first gets to supply the prime-minister.   Since I doubt the PVV could form a coalition, do they go to the next place party or is a new election called?  As for the Socialist Party doing well, I don't think Europe is moving to the left so much as it is moving to the extremes.  Generally people tend to stick closer to the centre when the economy is strong while move further to the left and right when it is weak.
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« Reply #70 on: May 30, 2012, 10:10:13 pm »
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FYI, San Marino elected a Communist government in the 70s. So there!
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batmacumba
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« Reply #71 on: May 31, 2012, 01:37:05 am »
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Of course it isn't as though the SP is quite the party that it used to be either...

It's not clear to me, at this point, if that many voters started to understand that traditional SD parties aren't that SD anymore and that the hard left compromise with representative democracy pulled them to the position of real centre-left. It still seems more like protest voting than realignment. But I won't be surprised if sinistrisme started working again.
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« Reply #72 on: May 31, 2012, 02:54:03 am »
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How about the PVV coming in first since my understanding is whichever party comes in first gets to supply the prime-minister.   
No, that is not the case. Unlike for example Greece, the rules for forming a government in the Netherlands are unwritten. In the past, the Prime Minister was usually a member of the largest party of a coalition, but there have been exceptions, most recently in 1971. Also, the largest party does not have to be part of the coalition. Most recent example: 1982.

Until now, the following procedure is usually followed:
After the elections, the leaders of all parties elected to parliament visit the Queen, and give her advice. The same goes for the Speakers of both chambers, and the vice chairman of the Council of State. Based on the advice (or not) the Queen then usually appoints a mediator (or more than 1), usually with an assignment to investigate if a certain coalition is viable. That means that the Queen wants to know if a coalition agreement may be reached, with a majority in the Second Chamber.

These mediators tend to be former (Prime) ministers, governors of a province, or high ranking Senators.

There may be different rounds of negotiations, different mediators may be appointed with different assignments, other options for coalitions could be investigated, but it always take at least 2 months, and sometimes more. The record is 208 days, in 1981. In the end, a government is formed, and appointed by the Queen.

This year, the procedure is different. Some parties were not happy with the outcome and the procedure followed in 2010, or don't want the Queen to be part of the coalition forming process because of principle. So a majority (all parties except VVD, CDA, CU & SGP) changed the official regulations of the Second Chamber, from now on the Second Chamber will appoint the mediators, based on a parliamentary debate directly after the elections. Apart from appointing the government, the Queen will not be part of the process anymore.

I wouldn't be surprised though if this will be a one-off experiment, for the last 40 years the Second Chamber has tried before to reduce the role of the Queen, but in the end they always return to the old procedure.
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« Reply #73 on: May 31, 2012, 05:47:24 am »
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CDA needs to elect its leader first. At the moment there are six candidates:

Sybrand van Haersma Buma: leader of the CDA fraction in the Second Chamber
Henk Bleker: junior minister for Agriculture
Liesbeth Spies: Home Secretary
Madeleine van Toorenburg: CDA MP
Mona Keijzer: Alderman (Alderwoman?) of Purmerend (an Amsterdam suburb in Noord-Holland)
Marcel Wintels: Chairman of a group of polytechnic schools.

There are three polls:
Maurice de Hond polled CDA voters:
Van Haersma Buma 32%
Keijzer 30%
Bleker 10%
Wintels 10%
Spies 6%
Van Toorenburg 1%

Ipsos/Synovate polled CDA voters:
Van Haersma Buma 29%
Bleker 18%
Keijzer 11%
Wintels 11%
Spies 8%
Van Toorenburg 0%
Don't know: 23%

EenVandaag polled CDA members:
Van Haersma Buma 50%
Wintels 17%
Keijzer 16%
Bleker 5%
Spies 5%
Van Toorenburg 4%

All CDA members may vote until Friday May 18, when no candidate has 50+%, a second round will follow between the top two, until June 1.
I think I never posted the result of the first round of the CDA leadership elections:

Sybrand van Haersma Buma: 51,0%
Mona Keijzer 26,4%
Marcel Wintels 9,5%
Henk Bleker 7,3%
Liesbeth Spies 3,7%
Madeleine van Toorenburg 1,7%
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« Reply #74 on: June 01, 2012, 01:29:45 pm »
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TNS NIPO poll,  1 June 2012 (compared with their previous poll of 2 May)

VVD 29 (-3)
SP 29 (nc)
PvdA 20 (nc)
PVV 19 (nc)
CDA 18 (+3)
D66 17 (+1)
GL 6 (-2)
CU 6 (+1)
SGP 2 (nc)
PvdD 2 (nc)
50Plus 2 (nc)
Other 0 (nc)
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