Dutch general election - September 2012

[freek]

Latest polls:

Synovate/Politieke barometer (July 6):
VVD 35
SP 29
PvdA 25
PVV 18
CDA 14
D66 13
CU 6
GL 4
PvdD 3
SGP 2
50+ 1

Peil.nl/Maurice de Hond (8 July)
SP 31
VVD 29
PVV 20
PvdA 19
D66 17
CDA 14
CU 7
GL 5
SGP 3
PvdD 3
Other 2

EenVandaag (July 12):
VVD 33
SP 33
PvdA 18
PVV 16
D66 14
CDA 13
CU 8
GL 5
SGP 3
PvdD 3
50+ 2
Piratenpartij 1
Other 1

[lilTommy]

WOW... so one is SP leads, one VVD leads, the other a tie... this is going to be close

[freek]

WOW... so one is SP leads, one VVD leads, the other a tie... this is going to be close

Still two months to go. Everything is possible.

Last elections were June 9, 2010. A comparison between the Synovate poll of April 9, 2010 (left) and the election results two months later (right). VVD gained 9 seats in 2 months, CDA lost 8.

VVD 22 - 31
PvdA 33 - 30
PVV 23 - 24
CDA 29 - 21
D66 12 - 10
SP 11 - 15
GL 8 - 10
CU 8 - 5
SGP 2 - 2
PvdD 2 - 2
Other 0 - 0

[mileslunn]

It seems like much of Europe people are turning away from the traditional parties.  After all it use to be the case 25 years ago where the CDA and Labour Party were always the two main ones and would usually win at minimum 40 seats.  Is this also the case of more polarization too as I know the Socialist Party is to the left of the Labour Party, but is the VVD considered to the right of the CDA?  I know VVD is considered a Liberal party and CDA is a Christian Democrat so from a North American perspective it would mean the CDA is more conservative, but I know in Europe the word liberal has a very different meaning than North America.  Otherwise I believe they are more libertarian if anything albeit not say to the extent someone like Ron Paul is as I don't think any mainstream party in Europe advocates slashing government to that level.  My thinking for those who are familiar with Canadian politics is they would be similiar to the BC Liberals, to the business types in the federal Liberals like John Manley and Frank McKenna, and the more libertarian types in the Conservatives like John Baird or Maxime Bernier (otherwise those who favour Same sex marriage and abortion, but are for cutting the size of government).  Whereas the CDA seems more like the old Progressive Conservatives prior to merging with the Alliance, otherwise similiar to the John Tory types in the Ontario PCs, Alison Redford types in the Alberta PCs, and the provincial PCs in Atlantic Canada.  Anybody familiar with both could let me know if this assessment is accurate.  Also how come the PVV is down as it seems elsewhere anti-immigrant parties are gaining not losing?  Or have people just become tired of Geert Wilders as it seems other than bashing Islam, he doesn't have much else to say.

[You kip if you want to...]

It seems like much of Europe people are turning away from the traditional parties.  After all it use to be the case 25 years ago where the CDA and Labour Party were always the two main ones and would usually win at minimum 40 seats.  Is this also the case of more polarization too as I know the Socialist Party is to the left of the Labour Party, but is the VVD considered to the right of the CDA?  I know VVD is considered a Liberal party and CDA is a Christian Democrat so from a North American perspective it would mean the CDA is more conservative, but I know in Europe the word liberal has a very different meaning than North America.  Otherwise I believe they are more libertarian if anything albeit not say to the extent someone like Ron Paul is as I don't think any mainstream party in Europe advocates slashing government to that level.  My thinking for those who are familiar with Canadian politics is they would be similiar to the BC Liberals, to the business types in the federal Liberals like John Manley and Frank McKenna, and the more libertarian types in the Conservatives like John Baird or Maxime Bernier (otherwise those who favour Same sex marriage and abortion, but are for cutting the size of government).  Whereas the CDA seems more like the old Progressive Conservatives prior to merging with the Alliance, otherwise similiar to the John Tory types in the Ontario PCs, Alison Redford types in the Alberta PCs, and the provincial PCs in Atlantic Canada.  Anybody familiar with both could let me know if this assessment is accurate.  Also how come the PVV is down as it seems elsewhere anti-immigrant parties are gaining not losing?  Or have people just become tired of Geert Wilders as it seems other than bashing Islam, he doesn't have much else to say.

The Dutch Liberals (like most European liberals) - Pro-business, pro-small government, pro-individual liberty (like an American "social liberal").

Whether they're more "conservative" than the CDA really depends on how you want to look at it. It'd be difficult to say that they were more conservative than the CDA on social issues for example (except when they've had to give way to keep Wilders happy, obviously).

[Sibboleth]

Perhaps best not to create a grand continent-wide thesis based on political developments in the Netherlands. The... aha... pillars... that propped up the old party order aren't around (or aren't even vaguely relevant) anymore.

[freek]

Also how come the PVV is down as it seems elsewhere anti-immigrant parties are gaining not losing?  Or have people just become tired of Geert Wilders as it seems other than bashing Islam, he doesn't have much else to say.

"Leave the EU" is his new policy. PVV has lost some popularity the last few weeks because of internal troubles. 3 PVV MPs left the party last week.

[freek]

Peil.nl/Maurice de Hond, July 15
VVD 31
SP 31
PvdA 19
PVV 19
D66 15
CDA 14
CU 7
GrLinks 5
SGP 3
PvdD 3
Others 3 (Peil.nl considers the "other parties" as 1 party). Piratenpartij and 50Plus have 1 seat each (and are apparently both close to a 2nd one). DPK (see below) is clearly short of a seat.

The new party of former PVV MP Hero Brinkman (the Independent Citizen's Party OBP) has merged a few weeks ago with the Trots op Nederland party (Proud of the Netherlands). TROTS was founded by former VVD MP and minister Rita Verdonk, and almost won a seat in 2010. Verdonk has left the party some time ago, and the remains merged with the OBP to "Democratisch Politiek Keerpunt" (DPK, Democratic Political Turning Point, a name that makes just as much sense in English as it does in Dutch).

[You kip if you want to...]

Looking at the polls, VVD-PvdA-SP is currently the mostly likely outcome, right?

[Zuza]

Looking at the polls, VVD-PvdA-SP is currently the mostly likely outcome, right?

No, VVD and SP most probably will not participate in one government.

[RodPresident]

SP to get prime ministerial spot would have to compromise a lot. Their government would have to include PvdA, D66, CU and GL with a very weak majority.
Seeing from far, I think that VVD to lead a government with PvdA would need to replace Rutte to become acceptable. Maybe a Prime Minister Neelie Kroes.

[Iannis]

SP to get prime ministerial spot would have to compromise a lot. Their government would have to include PvdA, D66, CU and GL with a very weak majority.
Seeing from far, I think that VVD to lead a government with PvdA would need to replace Rutte to become acceptable. Maybe a Prime Minister Neelie Kroes.

I hope in a VVD-PVDA-CDA-D66 government actually

[freek]

SP to get prime ministerial spot would have to compromise a lot. Their government would have to include PvdA, D66, CU and GL with a very weak majority.
Seeing from far, I think that VVD to lead a government with PvdA would need to replace Rutte to become acceptable. Maybe a Prime Minister Neelie Kroes.

Neelie Kroes turns 71 tomorrow. She wants to retire in 2 years. Besides, Rutte is probably more popular with the PvdA than Kroes or other potential VVD prime ministers.

A coalition with both SP and VVD would be unlikely. There is not much that both parties agree on.

[DL]

What is the price of bringing the Party of the Animals into a coalition? Does the entire country have to become vegan??

[asexual trans victimologist]

What is the price of bringing the Party of the Animals into a coalition? Does the entire country have to become vegan??

I'm pretty sure PvdD is explicitly not interested in becoming part of any government, just in introducing animal-related bills on its own recognizance.

[freek]

Peil.nl/Maurice de Hond July 29
SP 34
VVD 31
PVV 19
PvdA 17
D66 15
CDA 14
ChristenUnie 7
GroenLinks 5
SGP 3
PvdD 3
50PLUS 1
Piratenpartij 1
Others 0

Synovate/Politieke Barometer July 27
VVD 35
SP 29
PvdA 23
PVV 18
CDA 15
D66 14
ChristenUnie 6
GroenLinks 4
PvdD 3
SGP 2
50PLUS 1
Others 0

For VVD, SP and PvdA, the differences between Synovate & Peil.nl remain huge.

Tomorrow, all parties hand in their list of candidates at the Electoral Council. New parties also had to gather 600 declarations of support, 30 each in the 20 electoral districts, in 1 week time.

The new electoral district of Bonaire, in the Caribbean, caused difficulties for some parties. It is by far the smallest district (the islands of Bonaire, Sint Eustatius and Saba, 20.000 inhabitants), and the only one not in the European part of the Netherlands.

[freek]

22 parties will participate in the 2012 elections.

All 10 parties in the current Parliament:
VVD
PvdA
PVV
CDA
SP
D66
GroenLinks
ChristenUnie
SGP
PvdD

2 parties who failed to win a seat in the 2010 elections:
- Partij voor Mens en Spirit (Party for Man and Spirit; a new age/spirituality party)
- Piratenpartij

10 new parties:
- 50Plus: A party for the elderly. The last of many parties founded by Jan Nagel, already represented in the Senate.

- Democratisch Politiek Keerpunt (Democratic Political Turning Point, the merger of TROTS with the OBP of former PVV MP Hero Brinkman), its policies somewhere in between VVD and PVV

- Libertarische Partij (Libertarian Party). Similar to libertarian parties in other countries.

- Liberaal Democratische Partij (Liberal Democratic Party). A social/liberal party, without the conservative tendencies of the VVD, and not as pro-EU as D66.

- Partij van de Toekomst (Future Party): Already participated in 2002 & 2003. It used to be the Dutch equivalent of the Monster Raving Loony Party, but they have transformed themselves to a more serious party that wants to govern via crowdsourcing.

- Nederland Lokaal (Local Netherlands): Independent/local parties are represented in most municipal councils. Some of them have grouped together to form Nederland Lokaal.

- SOPN (Soeverein Onafhankelijke Pioniers Nederland / Sovereign Independent Pioneers Netherlands): the tin foil hat party, aka the UFO party

- Anti Europa Partij (Anti Europe Party): The name summarizes its party programme, which is remarkably similar to the comments section of tabloid newspaper websites

These 20 parties participate in all 'European' electoral districts, some of them also in the Caribbean.

Two new parties only intend to participate in 1 district:
IQ partij: only in The Hague, wants to solve the problems with the budget deficit by suing Shell for EUR31bn, for murdering someone who invented a water powered car.

NXD partij: only in Amsterdam.

[batmacumba]

Just some data gathering.
here are graphs for IPSOS and Peil polls.


Peil


IPSOS

It seems that, since this year elections were announced, changes are merely internal, on the left and on the right.

Pollsters are also foreseeing coalitions, and the preferred seems to be the so-called Kunduz coalition of VVD, CDA, D66, Groen Links, ChristenUnie, or the Paars plus, with VVD, PvdA, D66, Groen Links. The all-left coalition isn't too strong and only have chances when the others go down. This is a regression for both pollsters:



Also, a regression with both pollsters for the number of seats in the lower chamber:

[Marcus Aurelius]

Is GroenLinks really willing to govern under the same coalition as VVD or CDA ? I was under the impression, from when I looked into dutch politics back at the time of the last elections, that they were a rather left-wing ecologist party, more like the French Greens than the German ones. Isn't that so ?

And other question : are any vote transfers between PvdA and D66 possible ? For now it seems like the graphs for SP rising and PvdA falling are almost symmetrical, but could PvdA lose on their right as well, and in that case would it be towards D66 ?

[freek]

Is GroenLinks really willing to govern under the same coalition as VVD or CDA ? I was under the impression, from when I looked into dutch politics back at the time of the last elections, that they were a rather left-wing ecologist party, more like the French Greens than the German ones. Isn't that so ?

The last few years GroenLinks (or at least its MPs) have become more of a left wing liberal party than a left wing socialist party, its policies closer to D66 than to SP. This happened while under the leadership of Femke Halsema. She retired from politics 1.5 years ago. Her successor Jolande Sap is more left-wing than liberal, but still not a socialist.

And other question : are any vote transfers between PvdA and D66 possible ? For now it seems like the graphs for SP rising and PvdA falling are almost symmetrical, but could PvdA lose on their right as well, and in that case would it be towards D66 ?

Yes, that is possible. D66 has been, and will always be, the 'reasonable alternative' (which used to be a D66 slogan) to PvdA & VVD. If D66 leader Alexander Pechtold retires from politics, D66 will probably lose votes to PvdA & GroenLinks.

[batmacumba]

Where are Groen Links supporters going?

[freek]

Where are Groen Links supporters going?

This is from a TNS NIPO-poll, of July 17, 2012 (and May 30, 2012).
How to read this: Horizontal: Voted for <party name> in 2010. Vertically:  Will now vote for <party name>, i.e. 23% of GL-voters of 2010 now intend to vote for SP.

'Andere partij' = Other party (in case of GroenLinks probably PvdD and Piratenpartij, I guess)
'Weet nog niet/zou nieuw stemmen' = Don't know yet/Won't vote

[Hashemite]

Semi off-topic, but this site here (http://www.verkiezingsuitslagen.nl/Na1918/Verkiezingsuitslagen.aspx?VerkiezingsTypeId=1) used to have some really cool maps of winners by municipality for all elections since 1918, but when I click on 'kaart' now it always says that it's not available. Anybody (freek?) care to help me out here?

[Zuza]

Very interesting table. SP is the most popular choice for both ex-PVV and ex-GL voters.

[freek]

Semi off-topic, but this site here (http://www.verkiezingsuitslagen.nl/Na1918/Verkiezingsuitslagen.aspx?VerkiezingsTypeId=1) used to have some really cool maps of winners by municipality for all elections since 1918, but when I click on 'kaart' now it always says that it's not available. Anybody (freek?) care to help me out here?

I'd love to help you out, but I encounter the same problem. I've emailed the Electoral Council.