Dutch general election - September 2012

[freek]

I'd love to help you out, but I encounter the same problem. I've emailed the Electoral Council.

Already received an answer. :-)

Apparently, the election results database website is in a process of switching suppliers for hosting & maintenance, and therefore some functions are not available at the moment, including the map functionality. The Council intends to have the maps working again soon, and at least before the September 12 elections.

[freek]

Party lists are final, the IQ Partij list is declared invalid, due to not paying the deposit of EUR11,250

Participating parties (by list number)

1. VVD
2. PvdA
3. PVV
4. CDA
5. SP
6. D66
7. GroenLinks
8. ChristenUnie
9. SGP
10. PvdD
11. Piratenpartij
12. Partij voor Mens en Spirit (not in the Caribbean)
13. Nederland Lokaal
14. Libertarische Partij
15. Democratisch Politiek Keerpunt
16. 50PLUS
17. Liberaal Democratische Partij (not in the Caribbean)
18. Anti Europa Partij
19. SOPN (not in the Caribbean)
20. Partij van de Toekomst (not in the Caribbean)
21. Politieke Partij NXD (only in Amsterdam)

[freek]

Latest Peil.nl / Maurice de Hond poll, of August 5:



Also, which groups are under or overrepresented in supporting a specific party. Apparently men prefer VVD & D66, women SP. A legend is  not provided unfortunately, but the ratio female:male for the SP is 60%/40%. Horizontally: Men | Women | <35 | 35-54 | 55+ | High education | Low education | High income | Middle income | Low income

[Leftbehind]

Is the SP destined to just sit out of forming a government, given even in the most favourable polls it'd need the likes of CU and D66 in it, or is it more likely to compromise?

[You kip if you want to...]

Mark Rutte could be the first EU leader to survive since Valdis Dombrovskis in Latvia (had to Google that). I genuinely can't remember the last time a government was re-elected. Austria is it?

[Insula Dei]

Re: 'Midden Inkomen'. Nu ben ik geen taalpurist, maar het is echt enorm vervelend hoeveel mensen lijken te denken dat je in het nederlands net als in het engels twee zelfstandige naamwoorden maar in elkaars buurt moet zetten om een grammaticaal correcte en zinvolle uitdrukking te bekomen. Niet zo heel vervelend in gevallen als deze waar het gewoon een letterlijke vertaling betreft, maar ik heb al echt heel lelijke voorbeelden van deze fout gezien. ('religie boek' is geen overdreven voorbeeld.) Extra irritant omdat er ook in de media mensen blijken rond te wandelen die zich niet geroepen voelen om tenminste geen afzichtelijke fouten te maken.


^^^^Irrelevant whining about grammar for the rest of you.

[freek]

Re: 'Midden Inkomen'. Nu ben ik geen taalpurist, maar het is echt enorm vervelend hoeveel mensen lijken te denken dat je in het nederlands net als in het engels twee zelfstandige naamwoorden maar in elkaars buurt moet zetten om een grammaticaal correcte en zinvolle uitdrukking te bekomen. Niet zo heel vervelend in gevallen als deze waar het gewoon een letterlijke vertaling betreft, maar ik heb al echt heel lelijke voorbeelden van deze fout gezien. ('religie boek' is geen overdreven voorbeeld.) Extra irritant omdat er ook in de media mensen blijken rond te wandelen die zich niet geroepen voelen om tenminste geen afzichtelijke fouten te maken.


^^^^Irrelevant whining about grammar for the rest of you.

Ha, ik ben dus niet de enige die zich hieraan ergert. Dit verschijnsel is beter bekend als de 'Engelse ziekte'. Zie ook http://www.spatiegebruik.nl/index.php, de website van het Platform Signalering Onjuist Spatiegebruik. Die staat boordevol met voorbeelden:

[freek]

And now back to the elections.

5 weeks before the elections, the campaigns haven't started yet. All politicians seem to be on holiday. VVD and SP aim on a short campaign, now they are polling well.

I'll be volunteering in a polling station again, as usual since 2009. Until now, one of my tasks was counting, but this year I am in a different group, and I am off at 9pm. Disadvantage is that I will be at the polling station from 7am to 9pm, instead of half of that.
After some incidents the last few years, there has been more attention from municipalites for the selection and education of volunteers. I have just finished an e-learning module (including a compulsory test).

Latest TNS NIPO poll:
SP 37
VVD 31
PVV 18
PvdA 17
CDA 16
D66 14
CU 6
GL 5
SGP 3
PvdD 2
50PLUS 2
Others 0 (DPK 0.4%, Pirates 0.2%)

[Leftbehind]

That seems to suggest people flocking from the minor parties to the SP and VVD, when comparing it to the last poll by TNS NIPO posted. A good poll for SP, in any case!

[Marcus Aurelius]

The main question staying : what stable coalition could be formed with those figures ? Apart from a "grosse-koalizion" pro-austerity in the likes of VVD-PvdA-CDA-D66-CU which would gather 84 seats (absolute majority is at 76 seats), but I don't know if those would or could work together...

As a leftist I'm of course proud that at last the "radical" left party is overtaking the "dull" leftish party (SP over PvdA), but as was seen in Greece with Syriza over Pasok, there is a deep lack of allies to govern after that... A grand "left" coalition SP-PvdA-D66-GL-PvdD, though highly unlikely, would barely reach 75 seats...

[DL]

The nice thing about these polls is that if present trends continue it will be mathematically impossible for there to be a pure rightwing government like the current one VVD-PVV-CDA is way below 75 seats now.

[YL]

The nice thing about these polls is that if present trends continue it will be mathematically impossible for there to be a pure rightwing government like the current one VVD-PVV-CDA is way below 75 seats now.

It actually seems that most plausible coalitions are below 75 seats; e.g. in the table below none of the five coalitions given have 75.  Could SP and CU work together?

Latest Peil.nl / Maurice de Hond poll, of August 5:

[Sibboleth]

The radicalisation of the Dutch electorate (which is what the movement of mainstream right voters to the VVD and of left voters to the SP looks like from the outside; always accept that reality might be different, especially when the electorate is as fickle as in the Netherlands these days) is a curious thing. How's it seen, as a thing, in the country itself?

(does that even make sense? Be a bit tired).

[Marcus Aurelius]

No news about this election ? Well, I guess there aren't enough of us from the Old Continent to care

So I went and got you the last TNS-Nipo (21 August) poll myself ! Here it goes : (those figures are seats, not vote share)

SP 34
VVD 34
PvdA 21
CDA 16
PVV 14
D66 13
CU 7
GL 4
SGP 3
PvdD 2
50Plus 2

There are no other parties entering the Parliament for this poll. The chamber is 150 seats, the absolute majority is therefore at 76, and still it's very difficult to see which majority could be formed.

The tendency this summer seems to be decreasing PvdA and PVV, respectively, I would say, in favor of SP and VVD's increases. GL also loses, probably to SP too, while CDA and D66 show a remarkable stability.

So the radicalisation of voters seems to be on the left, because on the right the more radical PVV seems to be losing a lot to VVD (or maybe to SP too ? I'm never too keen to accept voter transfer theories from the extreme-right towards the extreme-left, but I know they do exist in some circumstances).

Still, I found a sort of "aggregated figures" (which would please big bad fab ) expressed in vote bracket though :
SP 33-37
VVD 31-35
PvdA 16-20
PVV 14-18
CDA 13-17
D66 13-15
CU 6-8
GL 3-5
PvdD 2-4
SGP 2-4
50Plus 1-3

General poll results would suggest a SP lead for now. Wait and see.

[Diouf]

Is there any indication that the Dutch pollsters have become better at predicting the number of PVV voters? At the last election they were also predicted to get around 16-17 seats, but then on election day they actually got 24. The same thing happened in Denmark for a couple of years where the Danish People's Party constantly overperformed their polls. The Danish pollsters have only just managed to adjust to this in the last 2-3 years. The reasons mentioned for DPP underperforming in the polls have been that their voters are somewhat less interested in politics, and therefore does not want to participate in polls, and the fact that DPP were/are quite stigmatized by the media and some of the traditional parties (f.x. the SD prime minister calling them not house-trained), so their voters would be reluctant to support them when asked by a pollster. I guess these reasons could apply to PVV as well.

[freek]

No news about this election ? Well, I guess there aren't enough of us from the Old Continent to care

Sorry. I seem to be the only Dutchman posting at the moment, and I've been terribly busy the last 2 weeks.

Anyway, not much has happened, tonight is the first debate. This will be without Rutte (VVD), Roemer (SP) and Wilders (PVV), they declined the invitation. 8 other party leaders will participate (all other parties in parliament, and 50PLUS)

The first debate of Rutte, Roemer and Wilders (and also Samsom (PvdA)) will be next weekend.

One incident last week: Roemer said that, if he was prime minister, would not feel bound to the 3 percent deficit rule of the EU. If the Netherlands would be fined by the EU for having a budget deficit of over 3 percent of the GDP, he would refuse to pay it.

[Leftbehind]

Thanks for the update, and especially for relating SPs stance here.

Why would they refuse the debates? I'm not a fan of the debates held immediately before elections, but from what I can see they have a significant influence, and the minor parties here are itching to get on them.

[Marcus Aurelius]

I definitely like following this election ! It's quite entertaining and has this suspense going on which prevents from foreseeing its outcome. I know there are great topics at stake, but as elction fanatics we have the right to sit back and enjoy a bit, especially when it's not in our own country...

Last poll I got, Intomart-GfK for EenVandaag, gives the following :
SP 38
VVD 35
PvdA 17
PVV 15
CDA 13
D66 12
CU 7
GL 4
SGP 3
PvdD 3
50Plus 3

Other information found in this poll, the main topics people care for in this campaign are the health system (58 %) (!!!), social security (48 %), and employment (44 %). Not a good context for PVV as you can see, and quite a good one for SP on the other hand. I think I would like this campaign. So much used to campaigns on silly topics like immigration, security and bullsh**t...

Asked which party has the better ideas, SP comes first, followed by VVD and PvdA. Surprisingly, D66 comes last, whereas it had enjoyed quite a bit of a rising in polls the last few weeks.

Only coalition I could come up with with those figures would be a VVD-PvdA-CDA-D66 that would account for 77 seats. A sort of grosse koalizion that would not make much sense anyways...

[freek]

Other information found in this poll, the main topics people care for in this campaign are the health system (58 %) (!!!), social security (48 %), and employment (44 %). Not a good context for PVV as you can see, and quite a good one for SP on the other hand. I think I would like this campaign. So much used to campaigns on silly topics like immigration, security and bullsh**t...

Asked which party has the better ideas, SP comes first, followed by VVD and PvdA. Surprisingly, D66 comes last, whereas it had enjoyed quite a bit of a rising in polls the last few weeks.

The question was "Which party has the best ideas concerning these three topics", not "which party has the best ideas".

Health care is an import topic indeed, this is caused by the budget cuts that are expected the following years. Despite budget cuts in the past, the spending for health care is increasing rapidly. Total spending has doubled in 12 years time, and is still increasing with at least 4% per year (excluding inflation).

[freek]

The method for the "EenVandaag" poll is quite interesting. It uses a cumulative voting method. Every respondent has 5 votes, which it may divide over 1-5 parties.

[freek]

Thanks for the update, and especially for relating SPs stance here.

Why would they refuse the debates? I'm not a fan of the debates held immediately before elections, but from what I can see they have a significant influence, and the minor parties here are itching to get on them.

Officially the reasons are:
Rutte: "Campaign starts on August 25, on the VVD election congress"
Roemer: "Choices had to be made in debates, due to a debate overkill"
Wilders "Still on holiday, PVV election campaign starts officially on August 24"

Unofficially your remark "the minor parties here are itching to get on them" will be a reason too. VVD and SP are aiming on a neck-and-neck race between them, they don't need attacks from the other parties.

[Insula Dei]

I had a go at the kieskompas.nl quiz the other day, and to my surprise I wound up almost exactly on the same place as the SP. (The surprise mainly directed at the 'almost exactly').

[freek]

I had a go at the kieskompas.nl quiz the other day, and to my surprise I wound up almost exactly on the same place as the SP. (The surprise mainly directed at the 'almost exactly').

Position of the parties in Kieskompas 2012:



And the shift from previous editions of Kieskompas:



I was placed exactly on the Left/Right axis, as far to the right as CU.

I am still in doubt what party to vote for, but I am more and more tempted to vote CDA.

[Marcus Aurelius]

I don't see how they could place the PVV so close to the center of the axis ! :-O

Their 2006 rating where it was the rightmost party seems more faithful to me, unless there has been a real shift of this party's ideology since then that I'm unaware of ? I mean, how could PVV be rated as more left-wing than D66 ? O_o'

[Diouf]

I don't see how they could place the PVV so close to the center of the axis ! :-O

Their 2006 rating where it was the rightmost party seems more faithful to me, unless there has been a real shift of this party's ideology since then that I'm unaware of ? I mean, how could PVV be rated as more left-wing than D66 ? O_o'

Well, I understand the horisontal as mainly economic questions, and then it makes some sense. I know that PVV used to have quite liberal economic policies, but Wilders took down the government because PVV didn't accept the austerity measures that the government wanted to do in order to reduce the deficit. So that would probably place PVV economically more to the left than VVD and CDA. And if D66 is like most social liberal parties, then it's looks plausible that they are quite right wing on economic questions and wants tax cuts and deficit reduction. I did think that CU would be quite more left wing on economy, but according to the maps they have moved quite a bit towards the right.

The vertical axis, however, seems a bit strange because they have tried fitting in EU, ethics and immigration on the same axis. I don't think you could say that parties in favour of EU are progressive, and those against are conservative. For instance some left wing parties are opposed to the EU because of the economic policy EU encourage, the agricultural subsidies etc.
But since they use EU as parameter, i would have expected PVV to be near the bottom as they would be placed there on both EU and immigration, but i guess that their fairly liberal attitude to things like equality and homosexuality, on which the religious parties might be way more conservative, places them surprisingly high.