Dutch general election - September 2012

[freek]

Roemer should get a bounce from this.

He's illustrating how inflation will be ballooning when the SP comes to power.

Is this for real? Like, really real?

I'm digging the party hats though.

Yes, this is real, has been organised for the 3rd time, and it is quite popular with the party leaders. It is an opportunity to 'show their human side'.

Btw, it wasn't limited to party hats:

[freek]

In the latest Peil.nl/Maurice de Hond poll, a few additional questions were asked:

Which party do you hope to become the largest party, VVD or PvdA?
('Geen voorkeur' = no preference)


If VVD and PvdA remain this close in the polls, do you intend to vote strategically for VVD or PvdA?
(Shown is the percentage of voters that will switch for sure ('zeker'), or give it a large chance ('grote kans')



If 80% of the 'sure' group, and 40% of the 'large chance' group (apparently the maximum strategic vote effect), really switch to VVD and PvdA, this gives the following result:

[You kip if you want to...]

PvdA+SP+D66+GL+CU = 77.

[Swedish Cheese]

PVV should surely be lower, and I'd have thought that D66 would be higher.

PVV apperently is (or at least pretend to be) rather left-wing on economic issues, so it's not as strange as it seems.

[後援会]

D66  
VVD  
SP  
GroenLinks  
ChristenUnie  
SGP  
PvdA  
CDA  
Partij voor de Dieren  
50Plus  
PVV  

Huh. I expected the VVD but got D66. Largely because several Atlasians have compared me to the VVD.

Anyways, having the lowest level of compatibility with the PVV must mean that I am correct on everything.

[danny]

Libertarische Partij   
VVD   
Democratisch Politiek Keerpunt   
D66   
PVV   
Nederland Lokaal   
Partij van de Toekomst   
SP   
Anti Europa Partij   
ChristenUnie   
Piratenpartij   
CDA   
PvdA   
GroenLinks   
SGP   
Liberaal Democratische Partij   
Partij voor Mens en Spirit   
Partij voor de Dieren   
SOPN   
50Plus


I'm not really Liberterian, but oh well...

[Vasall des Midas]

On 6 items you disagree with SP.

SP   
GroenLinks   
PvdA   
Partij voor Mens en Spirit   
Partij voor de Dieren   
Piratenpartij   
50Plus   
CDA   
Partij van de Toekomst   
PVV   
ChristenUnie   
Nederland Lokaal   
D66   
Liberaal Democratische Partij   
Democratisch Politiek Keerpunt   
SGP   
Libertarische Partij   
SOPN   
Anti Europa Partij   
VVD   

On 7 items you agree with VVD 

Didn't weight.

[JulioMadrid]

SP, Pirate, GL, 50Plus (!), PvdA.

That weird, considering I consider myself a social-democrat.

[Marcus Aurelius]

That's hardly weird, since those five parties run a more or less social-democratic platform. Yes, even 50Plus, which I thought at first was more in the line of typical pensioners' parties, ie conservative and right-wing, but when I looked into it they actually have quite a center-left orientation. Are there other examples out there of such an "elderly left-wing party" ?

[Vasall des Midas]

Grey Panthers / Greys / whatever name they go by right now here in Germany have been thus since their origins as purely a pressure group back in the 70s.

The original name speaks for itself, I suppose.

[Sibboleth]

Gil - who won 7 seats in the 2006 Israeli election and lost them all in 2009 - would count as well. Although a lot of their voters weren't actually pensioners.

[So the Heroes Fall]

I didn't really like that quiz because a lot of the questions were unclear or didn't explain what the alternative was, like keeping parliament at 150 members, well does that mean expand or cut back? But anyway results:


 
On 8 items you disagree with Piratenpartij

Piratenpartij   
SP   
50Plus   
PvdA   
Partij van de Toekomst   
PVV   
GroenLinks   
Partij voor de Dieren   
Liberaal Democratische Partij   
D66   
Nederland Lokaal   
Partij voor Mens en Spirit   
CDA   
ChristenUnie   
SGP   
Libertarische Partij   
VVD   
Anti Europa Partij   
Democratisch Politiek Keerpunt   
SOPN   

On 8 items you agree with SOPN

[Emperor Dubya]

On 15 items you disagree with SGP
SGP
VVD
Nederland Lokaal
Anti Europa Partij
ChristenUnie
Democratisch Politiek Keerpunt
Libertarische Partij
D66
CDA
Partij voor Mens en Spirit
PVV
Liberaal Democratische Partij
PvdA
GroenLinks
Partij voor de Dieren
SP
Partij van de Toekomst
Piratenpartij
SOPN
50Plus
On 3 items you agree with 50Plus

[freek]

I didn't really like that quiz because a lot of the questions were unclear or didn't explain what the alternative was, like keeping parliament at 150 members, well does that mean expand or cut back? But anyway results:

VVD wants to decrease parliament size to 100 members (and the Senate from 75 to 50). All other parties don't want to cut it back.

You are right about the quiz though. Some questions have been criticized in the Netherlands too. The question about the unemployment benefits is not great either ("decrease the duration, increase the amount").

[So the Heroes Fall]

I didn't really like that quiz because a lot of the questions were unclear or didn't explain what the alternative was, like keeping parliament at 150 members, well does that mean expand or cut back? But anyway results:

VVD wants to decrease parliament size to 100 members (and the Senate from 75 to 50). All other parties don't want to cut it back.

You are right about the quiz though. Some questions have been criticized in the Netherlands too. The question about the unemployment benefits is not great either ("decrease the duration, increase the amount").

Yeah I didn't like that either. I choose "Neither".

[jeron]

New poll by TNS/Nipo. PvdA is now on par with VVD for the first time during this campaign:

PvdA 35
VVD 35
SP 21
PVV 19
CDA 13
D66 11
CU 6
GL 4
PvdD 3
SGP 2
50plus 1

Looks like we're heading for PvdA/VVD/D66, maybe with CDA

[freek]

New poll by TNS/Nipo. PvdA is now on par with VVD for the first time during this campaign:

Looks like we're heading for PvdA/VVD/D66, maybe with CDA

The only problem for a PvdA/VVD/D66 coalition would be the lack of a Senate majority.

This is the latest Synovate poll btw, not TNS Nipo.

[Secretary of Labor Earthling]

With Groenlinks they will have a majority in both chambers of Parliament.

If the PvdA wins they might push for that option.

[freek]

With Groenlinks they will have a majority in both chambers of Parliament.

If the PvdA wins they might push for that option.

Or just gamble on co-operation of either CDA, GL or CU/SGP, depending on the proposal. I can't imagine GL joining the coalition, with just 4 seats.

[Secretary of Labor Earthling]

True, but CDA will lose big for the second time in a row. They really need time out of power.


The CU is too small in the senate. Groenlinks isn't.

[Insula Dei]

Yeah, GroenLinks getting trashed yet still entering government would be a stupid thing to do for the party.

(The same, of course, is very much true of the CDA, but Buma, Verhagen, and Co. might want to continue their little Masterclass on how to kill off a traditional major party)

[Secretary of Labor Earthling]

They don't have to enter the cabinet. In the lower chamber, based on the polls, PvdA/VVD/D'66 will have a majority.

They could make some deal to support the government in the senate.

[ModerateCoward]

Why doesn't Pvda simply form a coalition with SP?

[freek]

Why doesn't Pvda simply form a coalition with SP?

Because they'd be 20 seats short of a majority, based on today's poll. GL could join that coalition, but CDA and D66 aren't too keen to do the same.

[Senator MaxQue]

Why doesn't Pvda simply form a coalition with SP?

35+21=56.
A coalition needs 76 seats (150/2 +1).