Dutch general election - September 2012

[nimh]

Ooooh ... talking of the Green Left, they just got a fourth seat! Latest calculation, taking into account the "lijstverbinding" between PvdA, GL and SP, gives GL an extra seat and the PvdA a seat less (so 38).

[jeron]

But GroenLinks has already been in this position politically/ ideologically for at least since 2007. And in 2010 they still  got 10 seats, so that can't be the reason they lost so heavily.

Again, that's purely anecdotal, but even under Halsema there was still a sort of sense that the Green Left was positioned to the left of Labour. This year changed that impression, and I think it has cost them electorally.

People who thought that were misinformed, because in 2010 GroenLinks was already well to the right of PvdA and Halsema herself was not more to the left than Sap

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ooooh ... talking of the Green Left, they just got a fourth seat! Latest calculation, taking into account the "lijstverbinding" between PvdA, GL and SP, gives GL an extra seat and the PvdA a seat less (so 38).

What's the "lijstverbinding" ? Is it some kind of list linking within coalitions ? I thought the Dutch system was absolute PR.

[jeron]

Ooooh ... talking of the Green Left, they just got a fourth seat! Latest calculation, taking into account the "lijstverbinding" between PvdA, GL and SP, gives GL an extra seat and the PvdA a seat less (so 38).

What's the "lijstverbinding" ? Is it some kind of list linking within coalitions ? I thought the Dutch system was absolute PR.

It 's a kind of electoral alliance. In PR not all seats are divided immediately. The remaining seats are in The Netherlands divided by using the D Hondt method, which favours larger parties. Therefore parties might become more seats if they form an alliance because their votes will be added up when allocating seats.

[Diouf]

Ooooh ... talking of the Green Left, they just got a fourth seat! Latest calculation, taking into account the "lijstverbinding" between PvdA, GL and SP, gives GL an extra seat and the PvdA a seat less (so 38).

What's the "lijstverbinding" ? Is it some kind of list linking within coalitions ? I thought the Dutch system was absolute PR.

It's an electoral alliance between parties to avoid wasting votes. So when seats are distributed via PR, PvdA, GL, and SP are seen as one bloc, and then afterwards the bloc's seats are distributed proportionally between the three parties. But the internal distribution in the block happens through the  largest remainder method instead of the regular D'Hondt method. This method favours the smaller parties, which is probably why GL has won one seat from PvdA.

CU and SGP also had an electoral alliance.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I see. Well, that's good that the left wing parties allied together, though it's sad to see PvdA lose another seat, especially to GL.

[Zanas]

I would like to give three cheers to nimh who brightened this topic with high-level political analyses. Such detail in explicating a country's politics is very useful, and I read the whole of it with pleasure.

Please keep coming here !

[Democratic Hawk]

Why the rapid decline in fortunes for the CDA? [... without my having to read a 29 page thread] given that they've went from having 41 seats in 2006 to 13 now?

[nimh]

I would like to give three cheers to nimh who brightened this topic with high-level political analyses. Such detail in explicating a country's politics is very useful, and I read the whole of it with pleasure.

Please keep coming here !

Aw, shucks ... thank you very kindly! :-)

[nimh]

Here's some evidence I found for a suggestion someone on Reddit made, that many PVV voters from 2010 have simply stayed home this time:

• Go to http://nos.nl/dossier/365768-nederland-kiest/tab/504/uitslagen/
• Click the Analyse tab, and then the Top 10 drop-down menu
• Select "Grootste toename opkomst" or "Grootste afname opkomst", respectively (biggest increase in turnout and biggest reduction of turnout)

The Top 10 places with highest increase in turnout is a bit of a mixed bag: lefty strongholds like Oldambt and Hoogezand-Sappemeer; the SGP stronghold of Urk; a perfectly average municipality like Apeldoorn; and a bunch of Wadden islands.

But the list of Top 10 places with largest decrease in turnout seems to buttress the idea that many Wilders voters stayed home. There's a lot of small municipalities in Limburg there: Schinnen, Meerssen, Roerdalen, Beesel, Valkenburg a/d Geul. I don't know about those places specifically, but Limburg was of course a stronghold for the PVV last time round.

Mind you, Limburg was also traditionally a strong province for the CDA, and I think many former CDA voters stayed home this time too. The combination must have pushed these municipalities into the Top 10.

Edam-Volendam is high up in the Top 10 of reduced turnout too, and it was also a PVV stronghold in 2010. In fact, it was the party's best score outside the South.

On the other side of the ledger, it's surprising to see Amsterdam show up with the 4th highest reduction in turnout. Maybe the Amsterdammers don't like Samsom as much as they did Job Cohen, the previous PvdA leader and long-time mayor of Amsterdam. If so, they must have been the only ones. (Where is Samsom from?)

Why The Hague is at the top of the list in reduced turnout, I don't know. Votes from abroad are usually counted in (and added to the turnout in) The Hague, and I don't think they've been counted yet, so that may still make a slight difference.

[Niemeyerite]

Thanks, nimh. Your posts are wonderful. I hope you keep coming here.

[Zanas]

Why the rapid decline in fortunes for the CDA? [... without my having to read a 29 page thread] given that they've went from having 41 seats in 2006 to 13 now?

To put it in a nutshell, they got worn out for continuously being in power doing whatever crap their current partners would think of. That and other parties emerged on the right that took several sections of their electorate.

For more detail, read the now 30 page topic !

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Some great posts in this thread, especially from nimh (welcome to the forum, btw).

[MaxQue]

Does the Edam mentionned earlier has a link with the cheese of the same name?

An idea of how many days for a definitive seat distribution?

[nimh]

Does the Edam mentionned earlier has a link with the cheese of the same name?

It has indeed. Edam is cheese; Volendam is fishermen and singers. :-)

An idea of how many days for a definitive seat distribution?

The Kiesraad (Electoral Council) will announce the official result in a public session on Monday. The results will soon thereafter be available on http://www.kiesraad.nl/artikel/verkiezingsuitslagen or, less laboriously, on http://www.verkiezingsuitslagen.nl , which you can also use to compare election results from different years.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Antonio the Sixth]

Votematch results : SP > PVV (LOL) > PvdA > GL > CDA > CU > D66 > SGP > VVD

Weird results. I had some trouble understanding the meaning of some questions, though.

[Diouf]

De Hond made a poll where they asked people whether they voted tactically, and if they did what party they would have voted for originally. So they calulated how the result would have looked without tactical voting:

VVD 34 (-7)
PvdA 26 (-12)
SP 23 (+8)
PVV 18 (+3)
CDA 15 (+2)
D66 14 (+2)
CU 6 (+1)
GL 5 (+1)
SGP 3 (0)
PvdD 3 (+1)
50PLUS 3 (+1)

[You kip if you want to...]

De Hond made a poll where they asked people whether they voted tactically, and if they did what party they would have voted for originally. So they calulated how the result would have looked without tactical voting:

VVD 34 (-7)
PvdA 26 (-12)
SP 23 (+8)
PVV 18 (+3)
CDA 15 (+2)
D66 14 (+2)
CU 6 (+1)
GL 5 (+1)
SGP 3 (0)
PvdD 3 (+1)
50PLUS 3 (+1)

I love how people in the UK get told that PR eliminates tactical voting.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I wonder how many voters shifted from the PVV to the Socialists or PvdA.

[Angel of Death]

Apeldoorn and Heemskerk are once again the bellwether municipalities of the country.

[Leftbehind]

I love how people in the UK get told that PR eliminates tactical voting.

Well it does a better job than any other system of eliminating it. The coalescing around PvdA and VVD (forgetting that with FPTP they'd have probably still be begrudgingly voting CDA) would be much more pronounced.

[Zanas]

Plus I don't even know what the heck is tactical about those shifts since first place doesn't really mean anything in that case... Morons. (that's addressed to Dutch voters, not my fellow users here)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I somehow doubt that would be your opinion if - as looked likely early on in the campaign - the SP had been one of the primary beneficiaries of such voter calculations

[Zanas]

I would have taken the result, but still thought they were morons... :-P