Dutch general election - September 2012

[jeron]

New polls by Ipsos and Peil.nl

Ipsos (May 18)
VVD  31
SP 27
PvdA 24
PVV 21
CDA 16
D66 15
Greens 5
CU 5
PvdD 3
SGP 2
50+ 1

Peil.nl (May 20)
VVD 25
SP 29
PvdA 23
PVV 23
CDA 15
D66 17
CU 6
Greens 4
SGP 3
PvdD 3
Others 2

So, it will be hard to form a coalition with a solid majority. VVD and Greens have lost seats in the last week. VVD voters seem dissatisfied with the budgettary agreement and think the VVD has given in too much to D66, Greens and CU. The Greens have internal problems.
Pvda and PVV gained in the last week and profited from growing dissatisfaction with the budgettary agreement. PVV also proposed to postpone the vote on the European Stability Mechanism until after the election, but only SP and PvdD supported this. Wilders now wants to go to court to prevent ratification  of the treaty.

[jeron]

New poll by TNS/Nipo. PvdA is now on par with VVD for the first time during this campaign:

PvdA 35
VVD 35
SP 21
PVV 19
CDA 13
D66 11
CU 6
GL 4
PvdD 3
SGP 2
50plus 1

Looks like we're heading for PvdA/VVD/D66, maybe with CDA

[jeron]

They don't have to enter the cabinet. In the lower chamber, based on the polls, PvdA/VVD/D'66 will have a majority.

They could make some deal to support the government in the senate.

Yes, they could be in the same position the SGP had the past year

[jeron]

So can anyone explain the difference between the SP and the PvdA? I'm sure there are substantive ideological/policy differences.

Right?

The PvdA is a classic social democratic party. The SP has communist and maoïst roots. The SP now is populist left, while PvdA is a party of administrators. In trade unions SP represents the hardliners and PvdA the moderates. SP wants to keep the retirement age at 65, PvdA wants to increase it. PvdA supports the EU, SP is very critical of it. PvdA wants to increase the possibilities of stores opening on sundays. SP wants to limit this in order to protect small entrepreneurs. Basically, SP represents people with lower incomes, PvdA represents the middle class.

[jeron]

Roemer should resign with those numbers, I'd say.

No, he won't

[jeron]

It's clear that undecideds broke for PvdA and VVD at the last moment at the expense of SP and PVV.

[jeron]

http://nos.nl/nieuws/live/politiek24/

Results will be here.

Thanks, but I was thinking more at real-time updated results, not a TV livestream. I can't understand Dutch.

The results are below THE live stream

[jeron]

The really comic thing is that I don't see why the CDA shouldn't win 35 or 40 seats next time round.

I do. They don't have much grassroots support anymore and they get about 20 percent of the vote among people aged 65 and older, which shows just how bad their position is among people under 50. Their position in cities is apalling. Unless they find a way to apeal to these voters, they won't get more than 30 seats.

[jeron]

How important is it whether VVD or PvdA is the biggest party? I assume that if PvdA crafts and leftwing coalition, it doesn't matter if VVD has more seats since they would not be part of the gov't - but I assume that if there is a "grand coalition" just of VVD and PvdA the party with more seats supplies the Prime Minister, right?

PvdA can't craft a left coalition. The only option is a Pvda/VVD coalition.

[jeron]

PvdA can't craft a left coalition. The only option is a Pvda/VVD coalition.

Hypothetically, you could craft a center-left coalition of PvdA + SP + CDA + D66 -- maybe the CDA, which previously said it wouldn't govern with both PvdA *and* SP, would be a little less wary now the SP has gotten so small -- but yeah, I don't see it happening. Something would have to horribly blow up in negotiations for Purple III for that to happen.

D66 also said that they'd rather govern with SP. The differences are so large that they will be hard to overcome

[jeron]

On the bright side, if the prognosis is correct, this is arguably also the best result for the broader left in Dutch electoral history ... that is to say, if you count both D66 and the party for the elderly, 50 Plus. You can justify the former, since D66 is traditionally considered on the center-left, though less so now than ever, not sure about the latter, though 50 Plus is Jan Nagel's brainchild.

PvdA + SP + D66 + GL + 50 Plus + PvdD = 76 seats.

The previous best result for the broader left was 1998, when PvdA + SP + D66 + GL got 75 seats.

This is of course of limited practical use, since D66 and the SP don't have much in common, but sociologically/historically interesting.

Quite arguable if 50plus can be labeled as "center-left". It's more populist

Yes, its political leader Henk Krol used to be a VVD member

[jeron]

3 municipalities, over one hour after polls have closed... Gosh, that takes time.

We've had to vote with red pencil and paper again....

[jeron]

Well, I have to leave in about 40 m, so I hope in the meantime something more consistent will come...

I wouldn't count on it. It took Amsterdam until after midnight to count all votes last time

[jeron]

Vaals (in the south at the border with belgium)
1989. CDA. 40.7 percent
2012  CDA. 8.9 percent

CDA crushed in its traditional catholic stronghold in the south

[jeron]

CDA crushed in its traditional catholic stronghold in the south

So their third-party status is permanent then?

Who knows .. they were already relegated to third-party status once, in the 90s, before surging back under Balkenende. But they're in a lot worse state now, at less than half the seats they had then.

In particular, the CDA seems to be singularly unable to hold its old strongholds in the Catholic South. It's surviving better, relatively speaking I mean, in the protestant (but not fundamentalist) East and North. (Based on the 2010 results, when the party had already cratered, and a poll with data by region I saw this week).

CDA is also doing beter among catholics in the east than among catholics in the south. In many municipalities in the south CDA has finished fourth or fifth this time.

[jeron]

I really can't trust an electorate that is capable of switching in three weeks from SP 35 PvdA 20 towards PvdA 40 SP 15 !! Even though they don't have first past the post where that could *at least* make sense, but friggin' proportional representation !! Why do nobody have something like a political culture nowadays ? Why don't anyone have some kind of political consistency ?

And also, why the f***ing hell would they vote for government moderate centerish rubbish parties that will keep doing the exact f***ing same thing that put them all in deep sh!t in the first place ?

It's official, I now resume hating the Dutch voters.

The only two _good_ news I can think of are the collapse of PVV, but I do not get it either, but it feels good of course, and the PvdD keeping their 2 seats, cause I'm kind of a vegetarian.

Oh, AND one last thing : nobody calls left-wing a party that is ready to govern with the right, whatever its motives on bloody debt reduction or sh!t may be : you govern with the right, except maybe in time of war or invasion, you're center, so you're right-wing. Period. PvdA is right-wing, SPD is, SPÖ is.

Don't you think that maybe the crazy attitude was when so many people declared to vote SP and not now? because historically PVDA has always had more votes than SP, so they have just gone back to their usual attitude. And probably dutch socialdemocrats are simply more keen to find a compromise with VVD on remaining in a stable pro-Europe pattern than trying some euroskeptic experiment, like they did in the past (Kok government, which was also a positive period for economy)

At one point it looked like SP might become the largest party. But during the campaign it seemed that the more people saw of Roemer, the less they trusted him. He just did not make much of an impression during the debates.

[jeron]

you're center, so you're right-wing. Period.

Mm. I share your bitterness about all the floating voters rushing back from their SP preference to the Labour mothership because they happen to have a smart-sounding leader again ... but this makes no sense to me. If you're center, you're center. Right-wingers are right-wingers, centrists are centrists, left-wingers are left-wingers.

You can argue that the PvdA is more a centrist party than a left-wing party, but there's no automatic way in which everyone who is centrist magically therefore is, *really*, right-wing.

Only way I see that work is if you'd go with a kind of "if you're not with us, you're against us" mentality, where everyone who is not actively on your side is ipse facto a guilty member of the opposite side, but that kind of logic (made famous by creepy leaders from Lenin to George W. Bush) strikes me as a bit disturbing.

Again, I've been a bit too much bitter. But here in France we have a long tradition of considering there is no *real* center, and that the center is a part of the right. You should see what it provoked when some socialists proposed to govern with even the very very moderate-center Modem.

But you're a bit right : being left-wing _is_ "with us or against us" in a way. Either you support the workers that make the wealth, either you support the bosses that steal it from them. It's very very basically said, it has become much more sophisticated than that, but in times of crisis as now, it kind of grows back.

So I'll maintain PvdA is not a left-wing party anymore if they are willing to govern with VVD, but that doesn't mean SP or GL may not try to work with them punctually at a local level. It's not the same thing.

Of course you can be principled and refuse to govern with VVD, but that means you will never achieve anything. Just like SP

[jeron]

This is really looking worse and worse.

Also, SGP +2? Wtf.

Their all-time best isn't it? Only in this election.

It has gone back to 3 seats now and a lot of larger cities have not reported yet, so SGP will not end up with 4 seats

[jeron]

Also, SGP +2? Wtf.

Their all-time best isn't it? Only in this election.

It would be, yes. Incredibly enough, the SGP has had either 2 seats or 3 seats since ... wait for it ... 1925.

The fact that they'll apparently be back up to 3 now, though, does remind me of this post by Erik Voeten on the political science blog The Monkey Cage, in which he suggested that Van der Staaij's Akin-like remark about rape and pregnancy was a deliberate ploy to gain publicity and extra votes: themonkeycage dot org / blog / 2012 / 08 / 30 / the-diffusion-of-stupid-and-offensive-ideas

(I didn't agree at the time, but they certainly don't seem to have been hurt by his remarks..

Well, SGP always profits when turnout is low

[jeron]

Of course you can be principled and refuse to govern with VVD, but that means you will never achieve anything. Just like SP

Do you realize how much this reasoning is politically flawed ?

It says : you have to achieve something, anything, so you have to govern, so you have to govern with whichever the main parties might be at the time.

Firstly, that's what dragged CDA as low as they are now, because they could not at any time step down government and think a bit of what they actually thought and wanted to implement.

And secondly, it says that any party must do anything according to whichever circumstances are present. No convictions. No beliefs. No projects. Only emergency measures with whoever is on top that day. I'm sorry but a left-wing party has to ensure the defense of the workers class, and that is just not possible with right-wing parties, so they just stay in opposition and try to be more convincing to that worker class next time. They don't just say "we have to at least do something" that will nearly certainly be counter-productive to the class they ought to defend.

Are you a political activist of any party ?

I didn't say you have to govern no matter what, but you have to be prepared to compromise. If you won't do that, you'll never be in government, because the leftist parties do not have a majority. I think SP has had very little influence and in the end that is why you are in politics.
The decision of CDA in 2010 was a mistake and i thought so at that time.

As to your question: i am a D66 member

[jeron]

Well, SGP always profits when turnout is low

According to the NOS, turnout is 75% so far, and that's exactly what turnout was in 2010, so that doesn't explain the difference.

They said earlier that overall turnout was lower

[jeron]

Oh, can someone explain me what happened to GroenLinks ?

... You took the question right out of my mouth, what happened with the GL? we already discussed CDA and PVV.

It's kind of a long story. I answered the same question a month ago on Daily Kos Elections, let me port my answer there over ... mind you, it's long-winded:

A fussin' and a fightin'



Out at sea, adrift in a leaky boat

Where has all this left the party? Ideologically, it now seems to be to the right of the Labour Party. It has proven itself a pragmatic, governance-oriented group of political professionals. But it lacks political coherence, an obvious electorate to appeal to, political allies, an engaged and enthusiastic membership, and ties to social movements outside parliament.

Voters at large are no longer really sure what the party stands for, and feel that even if it nominally stands for something, it'd be willing to ditch whatever it is at the drop of a hat if required for government participation. The party has alienated the other left-wing parties with what has been seen as a somewhat arrogant attitude, especially when contrasted with the party's seemingly endless desire to cozy up to the Democrats 66 and even the Christian-Democrats, and by what was considered a disloyal stance during the Spring Agreement negotiations. With a party leadership that's distrustful of its own members and even its own MPs, internal dynamism in the party is at a minimum. Many of the most committed activists have left in disappointment, and those who remain are more likely to approve the party's further moves to the center.

But there's the crux of the question, and what sets the Green Left apart from the German Greens: the Netherlands already has a center-left, pragmatic, social-liberal party for the highly educated upper middle class. It's called D66, and it's pulling three times as many votes as the Green Left. That's the problem in a nutshell, really. So what's the Green Left for, then?

If you think environmentalist activism is the most important thing, there's always the "Party for the Animals," which looks set to gain another seat. If you want to defend the accomplishments of the welfare state, you can't trust the Green Left and should vote Socialist or perhaps Labour instead. If you're an individualist with culturally liberal views, who believes it's important to stop the far right and spend more on education but doesn't care much about unemployment benefits, you vote D66.

But GroenLinks has already been in this position politically/ ideologically for at least since 2007. And in 2010 they still  got 10 seats, so that can't be the reason they lost so heavily.

[jeron]

But GroenLinks has already been in this position politically/ ideologically for at least since 2007. And in 2010 they still  got 10 seats, so that can't be the reason they lost so heavily.

Again, that's purely anecdotal, but even under Halsema there was still a sort of sense that the Green Left was positioned to the left of Labour. This year changed that impression, and I think it has cost them electorally.

People who thought that were misinformed, because in 2010 GroenLinks was already well to the right of PvdA and Halsema herself was not more to the left than Sap

[jeron]

Ooooh ... talking of the Green Left, they just got a fourth seat! Latest calculation, taking into account the "lijstverbinding" between PvdA, GL and SP, gives GL an extra seat and the PvdA a seat less (so 38).

What's the "lijstverbinding" ? Is it some kind of list linking within coalitions ? I thought the Dutch system was absolute PR.

It 's a kind of electoral alliance. In PR not all seats are divided immediately. The remaining seats are in The Netherlands divided by using the D Hondt method, which favours larger parties. Therefore parties might become more seats if they form an alliance because their votes will be added up when allocating seats.