Dutch general election - September 2012

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It seems like much of Europe people are turning away from the traditional parties.  After all it use to be the case 25 years ago where the CDA and Labour Party were always the two main ones and would usually win at minimum 40 seats.  Is this also the case of more polarization too as I know the Socialist Party is to the left of the Labour Party, but is the VVD considered to the right of the CDA?  I know VVD is considered a Liberal party and CDA is a Christian Democrat so from a North American perspective it would mean the CDA is more conservative, but I know in Europe the word liberal has a very different meaning than North America.  Otherwise I believe they are more libertarian if anything albeit not say to the extent someone like Ron Paul is as I don't think any mainstream party in Europe advocates slashing government to that level.  My thinking for those who are familiar with Canadian politics is they would be similiar to the BC Liberals, to the business types in the federal Liberals like John Manley and Frank McKenna, and the more libertarian types in the Conservatives like John Baird or Maxime Bernier (otherwise those who favour Same sex marriage and abortion, but are for cutting the size of government).  Whereas the CDA seems more like the old Progressive Conservatives prior to merging with the Alliance, otherwise similiar to the John Tory types in the Ontario PCs, Alison Redford types in the Alberta PCs, and the provincial PCs in Atlantic Canada.  Anybody familiar with both could let me know if this assessment is accurate.  Also how come the PVV is down as it seems elsewhere anti-immigrant parties are gaining not losing?  Or have people just become tired of Geert Wilders as it seems other than bashing Islam, he doesn't have much else to say.

The Dutch Liberals (like most European liberals) - Pro-business, pro-small government, pro-individual liberty (like an American "social liberal").

Whether they're more "conservative" than the CDA really depends on how you want to look at it. It'd be difficult to say that they were more conservative than the CDA on social issues for example (except when they've had to give way to keep Wilders happy, obviously).

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Looking at the polls, VVD-PvdA-SP is currently the mostly likely outcome, right?

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Mark Rutte could be the first EU leader to survive since Valdis Dombrovskis in Latvia (had to Google that). I genuinely can't remember the last time a government was re-elected. Austria is it?

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PvdA doing well isn't necessarily bad for Roemer though, is it?

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A first place finish from Labour would be HILARIOUS.

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I guess we'll just have to take heart that the election'll finish with a slightly more left-wing government than before. Labour could still some how pull an unexpected finish in first place, but I guess it's near impossible.

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Anyway the new Politieke Barometer poll for the NOS:

VVD: 34
PvdA: 32
SP: 22
PVV: 20
CDA: 14
D66: 13
CU: 6
GL: 4
PvdD: 3
SGP: 2
50+: 2

Wouldn't be shocked if PvdA took the lead at some point. The momentum's real.

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PvdA+SP+D66+GL+CU = 77.

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So, a razor-thin, disunited majority for PvdA-SP-D66 or a grand coalition of VVD-PvdA?

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Depending on how the negotiations go, first EU prime minister to survive since........

(someone fill in the blank)

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Roemer's Clegg moment.

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De Hond made a poll where they asked people whether they voted tactically, and if they did what party they would have voted for originally. So they calulated how the result would have looked without tactical voting:

VVD 34 (-7)
PvdA 26 (-12)
SP 23 (+8)
PVV 18 (+3)
CDA 15 (+2)
D66 14 (+2)
CU 6 (+1)
GL 5 (+1)
SGP 3 (0)
PvdD 3 (+1)
50PLUS 3 (+1)

I love how people in the UK get told that PR eliminates tactical voting.

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So the PvdA have screwed themselves over...