Dutch general election - September 2012

[Insula Dei]

Whom do the polls show in front and how are they looking as it seems not too uncommon for a third place party to pull ahead or one to fall from first to third or lower.

Right now I'd say the most likely result is the VVD as the largest party in a Tweede Kamer filled with smallish parties. PvdA probably ought to be second, though right now they're still behind the SP in most polls. A lot will depend on how the Budgetary Agreement between CDA, VVD, D66 and GL is received, I think.

Dutch politics is hugely volatile during campaigning season, though. Job Cohen virtually was Prime Minister already in the spring of 2010 and that didn't work out too hot after all.

[Insula Dei]

http://www.ipsos-nederland.nl/content.asp?targetid=621

VVD: 33
SP: 28
PvdA: 22
PVV: 19
CDA: 16
D66: 15
GL: 5
CU: 6
SGP: 2
PvdD: 3
50+: 1

'plausible' coalitions:
VVD+CDA+PvdA+CU: 77/150
SP+PvdA+D66+GL(+CU) : 76/150, but obviously almost unworkable
VVD+PVV+CDA+SGP+CU: 76/150, but obviously unworkable
VVD+SP+PvdA+D66: 88/150, would be a very weird spin on Paars

No majority:
Paars+: 70/150
All Left: 74/150
All Right -PVV: 57/150

Almost impossible to form any coalition without SP or PVV with those numbers. Noone wants to work with the PVV, so the SP might find itself in a very strong position indeed. The 'Moderate Coalition' of VVD, CDA , PvdA and CU can't be relied upon to materialize in the numbers on election night and would include the two major losers of the election. Election still two months away, though.

[Insula Dei]

I am starting to get quite excited about the SP's polling numbers. Knowing the Dutch they probably won't hold up and they'll land us with some horrible abomination like 'Kunduz', though.

[Insula Dei]

Re: 'Midden Inkomen'. Nu ben ik geen taalpurist, maar het is echt enorm vervelend hoeveel mensen lijken te denken dat je in het nederlands net als in het engels twee zelfstandige naamwoorden maar in elkaars buurt moet zetten om een grammaticaal correcte en zinvolle uitdrukking te bekomen. Niet zo heel vervelend in gevallen als deze waar het gewoon een letterlijke vertaling betreft, maar ik heb al echt heel lelijke voorbeelden van deze fout gezien. ('religie boek' is geen overdreven voorbeeld.) Extra irritant omdat er ook in de media mensen blijken rond te wandelen die zich niet geroepen voelen om tenminste geen afzichtelijke fouten te maken.


^^^^Irrelevant whining about grammar for the rest of you.

[Insula Dei]

I had a go at the kieskompas.nl quiz the other day, and to my surprise I wound up almost exactly on the same place as the SP. (The surprise mainly directed at the 'almost exactly').

[Insula Dei]

SGP-leader Cornelis Van der Staaij meanwhile has received police bodyguards after he copied Todd Akin's rape comments in an interview. Seems like something Americans might find interesting.

[Insula Dei]

@Freek or any other Dutch Posters:

What is your estimation of the two recent debates (RTL4 and EO)? Roemer seems to be thought to have done poorly in the RTL-debate? I caught a bit of the EO/Knevel & Vandenbrink debate, and in my not entirely unbiased opinion Roemer did okay, while Rutte just was generally insufferable.

Also how are debates organized? Who else gets to hold a debate? Judging from wikipedia there still are an important RTL4, an important AVRO/TROS debate and an important NOS-debate left?

[Insula Dei]

Why does the EO have a debate, anyway? I can understand why the AVRO/TROS and the NOS do, but shouldn't the KRO and the NCRV also be included if the EO is?

[Insula Dei]

Aha, that clears things up for me. The Dutch Broadcasting system is positively labyrinthine.

[Insula Dei]

New Synovate poll (today)

VVD 35 (+1)
PvdA 30 (+4)
SP 24 (-3)
PVV 18 (-2)
CDA 14 (+1)
D66 14 (nc)
CU 4 (-1)
PvdD 4 (nc)
GL 3 (-1)
SGP 2 (nc)
50Plus 2 (+1)

Jesus wept.

[Insula Dei]

It'd be hilarious if the PvdA would for the third election in a row finish within breathing distance of largest party status. Under three different leaders, too.

[Insula Dei]

I blame the media. There's no limit to the idiocy that will pass unchallenged on Dutch television screens.

[Insula Dei]

Anyway the new Politieke Barometer poll for the NOS:

VVD: 34
PvdA: 32
SP: 22
PVV: 20
CDA: 14
D66: 13
CU: 6
GL: 4
PvdD: 3
SGP: 2
50+: 2

[Insula Dei]

Yeah, GroenLinks getting trashed yet still entering government would be a stupid thing to do for the party.

(The same, of course, is very much true of the CDA, but Buma, Verhagen, and Co. might want to continue their little Masterclass on how to kill off a traditional major party)

[Insula Dei]

Why doesn't Pvda simply form a coalition with SP?

That'd be wonderful. But it's impossible

True. Except for Groenlinks, no other party wants to join such a coalition.

From what I've seen GL under Sap is too obsessed with its status as a 'responsible' party for any such adventure. Really PvdA and GL seem to try very hard to dive into the gap in the centre the incredibly shrinking CDA must have left behind. (D66 already was there, of course, though I have a hard time visualizing a typical CDA 2010 or 2006-D66 2012 voter)

In the meantime Rutte calls the PvdA 'dangerous for the Netherlands'. Well, if you're going to be ridiculous anyway,...

[Insula Dei]

Prediction Time!

PvdA  36
VVD   33
SP     22
PVV   18
D66   14
CDA   12
CU     5
GL     4
SGP   2
PvdD  2
50+   2

[Insula Dei]

Is it going to be possible for there to be any government that does not include both VVD AND PvdA? or is some sort of "grand coalition" almost inevitable?

A centre-left or just left government is still possible based on most of the polls. This would be PvdA + SP + at least two out of D66, CDA, CU and GL. Not all of those parties would neccesarily be a part of the government; some/one could be supporting party.

I can not really imagine anything other than a "grand coalition" if the VVD is to be involved; a Kunduz coalition would require a swing of at least 5-6 seats.

And all of those would have to be towards GL.

[Insula Dei]

Nice spicy final debate.

Buma: Mr. Wilders, I'd like to return for a minute to your story about the Catshuis negotiations. I was there as well, and...
Wilders: Were you? I don't remember.

Rutte still didn't get the treatment he deserves, of course.

EDIT: Also, can we have Femke Halsema back at the head of GroenLinks? Sap really is horrible.

[Insula Dei]

Today, there were mock elections on quite a few high schools (12-18 years), over 100.000 votes. The results exaggerate the 'real' results, and especially the exaggerate the trends in the polls, but the changes since 2010 are interesting:

PvdA 35 (+10)
VVD 28 (nc)
PVV 19 (-11)
D66 15 (+1)
Pirates 14 (+6)
PvdD 8 (+1)
GL 6 (-7)
CDA 5 (-1)
CU 3 (-1)
SGP 3 (+1)
50PLUS 1 (new)
PvdT (Future Party) 1 (new)
ToN n/a (-1)

You missed the SP.

[Insula Dei]

1. If the SP were to come in behind the PVV, the PvdA would almost certainly have a 3-4 seat lead over the VVD. Those votes would have to come from somewhere. In fact, some analysts are speculating about how the 'Gordijnbonus' (// the 'Bradley effect') might hand Samsom the job of Prime Minister.

2. If the SP were to come in behind the PVV, they'd have had one a truly catastrophical election. Can't really see that happen.

3. I'm going to disagree with most analysts and say that the formation won't be significantly longer than usual: VVD/PvdA/D66 is really the only possibility. The main problem then is who they'll get to tolerate them in the First Chamber. Can't imagine the CDA will be keen on another election anytime soon.

[Insula Dei]

For completeness' sake, here are the results from the Volkskrant's 'Prediction Competition':

PvdA: 34
VVD: 33
SP: 22
PVV: 19
CDA: 15
D66: 12
GL: 5
Cu: 5
PvdD: 2
SGP: 2
50+: 1
DPK: 0

[Insula Dei]

I could see a bit of a (relatively minor) PVV-boost after what happened in Libya yesterday. Probably just as well this election isn't next week.

[Insula Dei]

And Jolande Sap has already said she won't resign tonight regardless of the outcome for GL.

[Insula Dei]

BVN's election show is already going?

[Insula Dei]

BVN's election show is already going?

You don't have NOS?

I have, but Tender Branson was referring to BVN a bit higher at a moment where the NOS hadn't begun yet.

Btw, anyone interested to talk about this on mibbit (#atlasforum) is more than welcome to come and do so.