Dutch general election - September 2012

[Zanas]

Is GroenLinks really willing to govern under the same coalition as VVD or CDA ? I was under the impression, from when I looked into dutch politics back at the time of the last elections, that they were a rather left-wing ecologist party, more like the French Greens than the German ones. Isn't that so ?

And other question : are any vote transfers between PvdA and D66 possible ? For now it seems like the graphs for SP rising and PvdA falling are almost symmetrical, but could PvdA lose on their right as well, and in that case would it be towards D66 ?

[Zanas]

The main question staying : what stable coalition could be formed with those figures ? Apart from a "grosse-koalizion" pro-austerity in the likes of VVD-PvdA-CDA-D66-CU which would gather 84 seats (absolute majority is at 76 seats), but I don't know if those would or could work together...

As a leftist I'm of course proud that at last the "radical" left party is overtaking the "dull" leftish party (SP over PvdA), but as was seen in Greece with Syriza over Pasok, there is a deep lack of allies to govern after that... A grand "left" coalition SP-PvdA-D66-GL-PvdD, though highly unlikely, would barely reach 75 seats...

[Zanas]

No news about this election ? Well, I guess there aren't enough of us from the Old Continent to care

So I went and got you the last TNS-Nipo (21 August) poll myself ! Here it goes : (those figures are seats, not vote share)

SP 34
VVD 34
PvdA 21
CDA 16
PVV 14
D66 13
CU 7
GL 4
SGP 3
PvdD 2
50Plus 2

There are no other parties entering the Parliament for this poll. The chamber is 150 seats, the absolute majority is therefore at 76, and still it's very difficult to see which majority could be formed.

The tendency this summer seems to be decreasing PvdA and PVV, respectively, I would say, in favor of SP and VVD's increases. GL also loses, probably to SP too, while CDA and D66 show a remarkable stability.

So the radicalisation of voters seems to be on the left, because on the right the more radical PVV seems to be losing a lot to VVD (or maybe to SP too ? I'm never too keen to accept voter transfer theories from the extreme-right towards the extreme-left, but I know they do exist in some circumstances).

Still, I found a sort of "aggregated figures" (which would please big bad fab ) expressed in vote bracket though :
SP 33-37
VVD 31-35
PvdA 16-20
PVV 14-18
CDA 13-17
D66 13-15
CU 6-8
GL 3-5
PvdD 2-4
SGP 2-4
50Plus 1-3

General poll results would suggest a SP lead for now. Wait and see.

[Zanas]

I definitely like following this election ! It's quite entertaining and has this suspense going on which prevents from foreseeing its outcome. I know there are great topics at stake, but as elction fanatics we have the right to sit back and enjoy a bit, especially when it's not in our own country...

Last poll I got, Intomart-GfK for EenVandaag, gives the following :
SP 38
VVD 35
PvdA 17
PVV 15
CDA 13
D66 12
CU 7
GL 4
SGP 3
PvdD 3
50Plus 3

Other information found in this poll, the main topics people care for in this campaign are the health system (58 %) (!!!), social security (48 %), and employment (44 %). Not a good context for PVV as you can see, and quite a good one for SP on the other hand. I think I would like this campaign. So much used to campaigns on silly topics like immigration, security and bullsh**t...

Asked which party has the better ideas, SP comes first, followed by VVD and PvdA. Surprisingly, D66 comes last, whereas it had enjoyed quite a bit of a rising in polls the last few weeks.

Only coalition I could come up with with those figures would be a VVD-PvdA-CDA-D66 that would account for 77 seats. A sort of grosse koalizion that would not make much sense anyways...

[Zanas]

I don't see how they could place the PVV so close to the center of the axis ! :-O

Their 2006 rating where it was the rightmost party seems more faithful to me, unless there has been a real shift of this party's ideology since then that I'm unaware of ? I mean, how could PVV be rated as more left-wing than D66 ? O_o'

[Zanas]

Well that sure sucks as hell... -__-

What could have possibly gone so wrong for the SP and/or so good for the PvdA to shift so quickly ? O_o'

[Zanas]

That's hardly weird, since those five parties run a more or less social-democratic platform. Yes, even 50Plus, which I thought at first was more in the line of typical pensioners' parties, ie conservative and right-wing, but when I looked into it they actually have quite a center-left orientation. Are there other examples out there of such an "elderly left-wing party" ?

[Zanas]

So can anyone explain the difference between the SP and the PvdA? I'm sure there are substantive ideological/policy differences.

Right?

Basically, PvdA is the typical "left-wing party" that wants nothing else than govern, so is advocating any right-wing policy they can in order to look "responsible". And SP is the typical left-wing party that has not yet plummeted down that road, so they stay pure and sometimes won't even think of making alliances with non-pures.

You got that everywhere around in Europe.

[Zanas]

This election has been totally depressing for me since two weeks, so I'll boycott the prediction time.

[Zanas]

I know I said earlier I would boycott the predictions thing, but as a pessimistic kind of fellow, I would go VVD just over PvdA, then PVV, then SP just a bit over D66, then CDA and the others.

The reason I say this is that when you support the far-left, you know the fascists always end up polling better than you do by doing nothing at all. It's sad cause it's true...

[Zanas]

I really can't trust an electorate that is capable of switching in three weeks from SP 35 PvdA 20 towards PvdA 40 SP 15 !! Even though they don't have first past the post where that could *at least* make sense, but friggin' proportional representation !! Why do nobody have something like a political culture nowadays ? Why don't anyone have some kind of political consistency ?

And also, why the f***ing hell would they vote for government moderate centerish rubbish parties that will keep doing the exact f***ing same thing that put them all in deep sh!t in the first place ?

It's official, I now resume hating the Dutch voters.

The only two _good_ news I can think of are the collapse of PVV, but I do not get it either, but it feels good of course, and the PvdD keeping their 2 seats, cause I'm kind of a vegetarian.

Oh, AND one last thing : nobody calls left-wing a party that is ready to govern with the right, whatever its motives on bloody debt reduction or sh!t may be : you govern with the right, except maybe in time of war or invasion, you're center, so you're right-wing. Period. PvdA is right-wing, SPD is, SPÖ is.

[Zanas]

Yeah I just went over the top, I was just a bit frustrated. But it's the second time the SP had the occasion of overtaking the pale PvdA, and still nothing, well at least the fascists didn't take the occasion this time.

But what you call "a stable pro-Europe pattern" is just a joke really, you have to realize that. Anything all those moderate hero parties are trying to get with their "golden rules"  is just a joke while the BCE cannot lend to states and only private banks can.

It's only stable for the top 1%, as always...

[Zanas]

you're center, so you're right-wing. Period.

Mm. I share your bitterness about all the floating voters rushing back from their SP preference to the Labour mothership because they happen to have a smart-sounding leader again ... but this makes no sense to me. If you're center, you're center. Right-wingers are right-wingers, centrists are centrists, left-wingers are left-wingers.

You can argue that the PvdA is more a centrist party than a left-wing party, but there's no automatic way in which everyone who is centrist magically therefore is, *really*, right-wing.

Only way I see that work is if you'd go with a kind of "if you're not with us, you're against us" mentality, where everyone who is not actively on your side is ipse facto a guilty member of the opposite side, but that kind of logic (made famous by creepy leaders from Lenin to George W. Bush) strikes me as a bit disturbing.

Again, I've been a bit too much bitter. But here in France we have a long tradition of considering there is no *real* center, and that the center is a part of the right. You should see what it provoked when some socialists proposed to govern with even the very very moderate-center Modem.

But you're a bit right : being left-wing _is_ "with us or against us" in a way. Either you support the workers that make the wealth, either you support the bosses that steal it from them. It's very very basically said, it has become much more sophisticated than that, but in times of crisis as now, it kind of grows back.

So I'll maintain PvdA is not a left-wing party anymore if they are willing to govern with VVD, but that doesn't mean SP or GL may not try to work with them punctually at a local level. It's not the same thing.

[Zanas]

NOS Nieuws just shifted their projection. It is now :
VVD 41
PvdA 37
SP 16
PVV 15
CDA 13
D66 12
CU 4
SGP 4
GL 3
PvdD 3
50+ 2

If it sitcks as is, it is a big slam in the head for GroenLinks :S

[Zanas]

Of course you can be principled and refuse to govern with VVD, but that means you will never achieve anything. Just like SP

Do you realize how much this reasoning is politically flawed ?

It says : you have to achieve something, anything, so you have to govern, so you have to govern with whichever the main parties might be at the time.

Firstly, that's what dragged CDA as low as they are now, because they could not at any time step down government and think a bit of what they actually thought and wanted to implement.

And secondly, it says that any party must do anything according to whichever circumstances are present. No convictions. No beliefs. No projects. Only emergency measures with whoever is on top that day. I'm sorry but a left-wing party has to ensure the defense of the workers class, and that is just not possible with right-wing parties, so they just stay in opposition and try to be more convincing to that worker class next time. They don't just say "we have to at least do something" that will nearly certainly be counter-productive to the class they ought to defend.

Are you a political activist of any party ?

[Zanas]

Oh, AND one last thing : nobody calls left-wing a party that is ready to govern with the right, whatever its motives on bloody debt reduction or sh!t may be : you govern with the right, except maybe in time of war or invasion, you're center, so you're right-wing. Period. PvdA is right-wing, SPD is, SPÖ is.

Using the same logic we can state that CDA, VVD, CDU/CSU and ÖVP are left-wing because of their cooperation with social democratic parties :-).

Except that no.

Right-wing parties joining left-wing ones in government has never benefited the working class.
Left-wing parties joining right-wing ones always benefits the dominant class (call it bourgeoisie if you're a marxist), because the left caucuses bring the votes to deploy right-wing policies, never the other way around. I can't think of right-wing parties sincerely joining and giving votes to actually give something to the working class that they took to their class, the rich, except when forced by general strike or some event.

It is just not the same thing.

[Zanas]

So, a razor-thin, disunited majority for PvdA-SP-D66 or a grand coalition of VVD-PvdA?

Once and for all, and sorry to brutalize you , but SP-PvdA JUST PLAIN WON'T happen. PvdA would rather govern with nearly everybody else than SP (except maybe PVV and SGP, that's all I think), and even more so now that SP is down with 15 seats and they have 39.

You will have a "responsible-serious-black suit-white shirt-black tie-austerity" bullsh*t coalition of VVD-PvdA and any other suppletive that could be foolish enough to go there and be marginalized and ridiculed.

[Zanas]

I would like to give three cheers to nimh who brightened this topic with high-level political analyses. Such detail in explicating a country's politics is very useful, and I read the whole of it with pleasure.

Please keep coming here !

[Zanas]

Why the rapid decline in fortunes for the CDA? [... without my having to read a 29 page thread] given that they've went from having 41 seats in 2006 to 13 now?

To put it in a nutshell, they got worn out for continuously being in power doing whatever crap their current partners would think of. That and other parties emerged on the right that took several sections of their electorate.

For more detail, read the now 30 page topic !

[Zanas]

Plus I don't even know what the heck is tactical about those shifts since first place doesn't really mean anything in that case... Morons. (that's addressed to Dutch voters, not my fellow users here)

[Zanas]

I would have taken the result, but still thought they were morons... :-P

[Zanas]

Well when you win and make a "grand coalition", you have to make big compromises to the other side. So it's not really a surprise there. But this kind of poll isn't really useful to any prospect.