RL Repass: Romney Dominates in West Virginia

[ajb]

So Romney owns WV...

I wouldn't be surprised.  He probably intends to turn it into a golf course and spa.

I feel a new home state coming on.

[ajb]

So Romney owns WV but is loosing ground in Kentucky?


He isn't a great match for either and were Clinton President, he would probably loose them both to her.

No. Just no.

For the 100th time, remember the 90's. If Hillary were president 95+% of the antipathy WV has towards Obama for "eastern establisment liberal", etc, would be foisted just as readily on Clinton. As would unease about the economy.

Hillary trouncing Obama in the WV and KY primaries proves zilch about their general election appeal in either state (not unlike Indiana in 08).

Agreed. Hillary never had and never will have the same connection with those types of voters that Bill had. She might have made WV closer, but down there, the perception of the Democratic party floating away in a sea of liberalism is greater than any Democratic nominee can overcome.

The one poll of WV in 2008 that seems to have asked the McCain-Clinton question was 47 Clinton-42 McCain. It's entirely plausible that he would have made that deficit up in the general election campaign, and if you want to argue that was the likely outcome, be my guest. But it's clearly not totally outlandish to think she could have won WV.


http://www.pollster.com/polls/wv/08-wv-pres-ge-mvc.php?nr=1

[ajb]

The poll with clinton ahead of mccain in 08 was from FEBRUARY. Hardly reliable. An arg poll (I know, I know) in early october had obama up 8. An insider advantage poll (well, they're not arg) a week later had him down only 2.

It's outlandish to believe clinton would've done more than a point or three better than obama, tops.

That same poll from February had McCain ahead of Obama, 53-35, while the result in November was 56-43.
Let me be clear. I'm not taking any particular stand on how HRC would have done in WV in 2008. But such evidence as we have points to her having been more than a point or three more popular than Obama.