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Author Topic: Mellman Group (D): Obama leads by 5 in KY-06  (Read 703 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: May 01, 2012, 10:53:58 am »

A poll released Tuesday shows Democratic Congressman Ben Chandler is very well-positioned to win re-election in the 6th district congressional race this fall.

The survey, which was conducted by the Mellman Group in late March, gives Chandler a 24-point lead over his opponent, Republican Andy Barr (54% to 30%).

Chandler maintains very high name recognition (86%) among voters in his district, and the poll reveals that he is viewed far more favorably (52%) than Barr (24%).

In addition, the survey found that the recently redrawn 6th district is very problematic for Republicans, with Democrats holding a 48% to 30% voter ID advantage over Republicans. The poll further revealed that President Obama holds a 51% to 35% lead over presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney in the new district.

The poll of 400 likely voters had a 4.9-point margin of error and was conducted from March 26 to March 28. A more detailed poll memorandum is attached.


http://www.lex18.com/news/poll-chandler-has-comfortable-lead-over-barr-for-congress

...

Somewhat curiously, the news article at the link above states the following:

Quote
A 51% majority view Romney unfavorably, while only 35% have a favorable view of the Republican challenger. As a result, President Obama currently leads Romney in a presidential trial heat (47% Obama, 42% Romney, 11% undecided).

Assuming that your text above is a quotation from what was at this link at the time you posted it, what seems probably to have happened is that the newspaper initially confused the presidential matchup with Romney's favorability but has now fixed it.
« Last Edit: May 02, 2012, 12:10:59 am by Tender Branson »Logged
Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: May 01, 2012, 11:05:28 am »

Isn't this a rather good showing by Obama in KY-06 ?

Obama lost KY-06 by 43-55 in 2008.
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #2 on: May 01, 2012, 11:09:14 am »
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Isn't this a rather good showing by Obama in KY-06 ?

Obama lost KY-06 by 43-55 in 2008.

Well, it's a new district, so you can't exactly compare the two as equals.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3 on: May 01, 2012, 11:12:53 am »

Isn't this a rather good showing by Obama in KY-06 ?

Obama lost KY-06 by 43-55 in 2008.

Well, it's a new district, so you can't exactly compare the two as equals.

Yeah, but the new KY-06 didn't change much. Only a few rural counties were changed.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #4 on: May 01, 2012, 11:15:00 am »
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Isn't this a rather good showing by Obama in KY-06 ?

Obama lost KY-06 by 43-55 in 2008.



In addition, the survey found that the recently redrawn 6th district is very problematic for Republicans, with Democrats holding a 48% to 30% voter ID advantage over Republicans.




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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5 on: May 01, 2012, 11:16:24 am »

Isn't this a rather good showing by Obama in KY-06 ?

Obama lost KY-06 by 43-55 in 2008.
In addition, the survey found that the recently redrawn 6th district is very problematic for Republicans, with Democrats holding a 48% to 30% voter ID advantage over Republicans.

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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #6 on: May 01, 2012, 12:43:33 pm »
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If central Kentucky is anything like northern Kentucky, I can believe this poll - if I go by what I see on the ground.

Kentuckians' supposed love of Republicans has been grossly overestimated.
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brittain33
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« Reply #7 on: May 01, 2012, 01:21:47 pm »
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In addition, the survey found that the recently redrawn 6th district is very problematic for Republicans, with Democrats holding a 48% to 30% voter ID advantage over Republicans.

Very misleading in KY.
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Snowstalker
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« Reply #8 on: May 01, 2012, 02:22:17 pm »
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Chandler is safe, and hopefully Obama will do better where Democrats will help people the most.
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Miles
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« Reply #9 on: May 01, 2012, 02:24:34 pm »
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Isn't this a rather good showing by Obama in KY-06 ?

Obama lost KY-06 by 43-55 in 2008.

Well, it's a new district, so you can't exactly compare the two as equals.

Yeah, but the new KY-06 didn't change much. Only a few rural counties were changed.

The new district has 92% of the old one.
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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #10 on: May 01, 2012, 03:14:42 pm »
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Somewhat curiously, the news article at the link above states the following:

Quote
A 51% majority view Romney unfavorably, while only 35% have a favorable view of the Republican challenger. As a result, President Obama currently leads Romney in a presidential trial heat (47% Obama, 42% Romney, 11% undecided).

Assuming that your text above is a quotation from what was at this link at the time you posted it, what seems probably to have happened is that the newspaper initially confused the presidential matchup with Romney's favorability but has now fixed it.
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Sbane
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« Reply #11 on: May 01, 2012, 05:09:14 pm »
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I'm guessing the poll sucks. If Obama is winning here by that margin, we might as well just call off the election and give him four more years.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #12 on: May 01, 2012, 07:31:26 pm »
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Will there be a "mormon factor" in KY? Will the "mormon factor" be canceled out by the "negro factor"?
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #13 on: May 01, 2012, 07:45:45 pm »
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I kind of doubt that this district will swing 25% to Obama.  lol
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old timey villain
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« Reply #14 on: May 01, 2012, 07:56:32 pm »
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Yo Fuzzybigfoot, care to explain the GA map you're using as your signature? I assume it's some old congressional districts.
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Can't we all just get along?
Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #15 on: May 01, 2012, 08:21:34 pm »
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Yo Fuzzybigfoot, care to explain the GA map you're using as your signature? I assume it's some old congressional districts.

It's the 2004 presidential results by congressional district.  Wink
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