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Author Topic: NV: Rasmussen: Heller with commanding lead  (Read 1065 times)
Miles
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« on: May 01, 2012, 01:45:17 pm »
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Here we go.

Dean Heller (R)- 51%
Shelley Berkley (D)- 40%
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Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #1 on: May 01, 2012, 01:48:09 pm »
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So Heller by 2 or 3 like the other polls.


Or is there something else going on here we should know about? Scandals?
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He's BACK!!! His Time Has Come Once Again! Now We're All Gonna Die! No One is Safe From His Wrath!



Miles
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« Reply #2 on: May 01, 2012, 01:53:03 pm »
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I think I've heard some bad things about Berkley's campaign...I'm not exactly sure though.
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Meeker
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« Reply #3 on: May 01, 2012, 01:54:45 pm »
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lol Scott
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krazen1211
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« Reply #4 on: May 01, 2012, 03:06:54 pm »
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Yep, Heller is a known elected statewide entity, while berkeley is under ethics investigation.


Congrats to Senator Heller!
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« Reply #5 on: May 01, 2012, 06:33:46 pm »
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Rasmussen isn't even hiding the bias anymore. PPP gets criticized, yet somehow this race is over because of a Rasmussen poll? Yeah, right. He'll probably have completely different numbers in the next poll.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #6 on: May 02, 2012, 11:22:07 am »
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I don't think Heller is as vulnerable here as many think. I suspect it'll be lean GOP on election day.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #7 on: May 02, 2012, 11:49:54 am »
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I don't think Heller is as vulnerable here as many think. I suspect it'll be lean GOP on election day.

The same sample has Obama up 8 in Nevada. Heller is leading of course by a large margin because he is a great candidate with crossover appeal.
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Miles
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« Reply #8 on: May 02, 2012, 12:11:31 pm »
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I don't think Heller is as vulnerable here as many think. I suspect it'll be lean GOP on election day.

The same sample has Obama up 8 in Nevada. Heller is leading of course by a large margin because he is a great candidate with crossover appeal.

You do know that this is the only poll here that shows the candidates more than 10 points apart?

I agree that Heller is up, but he isn't up by 11.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #9 on: May 02, 2012, 12:12:28 pm »
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I don't think Heller is as vulnerable here as many think. I suspect it'll be lean GOP on election day.

The same sample has Obama up 8 in Nevada. Heller is leading of course by a large margin because he is a great candidate with crossover appeal.

You do know that this is the only poll here that shows the candidates more than 10 points apart?

I agree that Heller is up, but he isn't up by 11.

Yes, of course. It is also the first poll I believe since Shelley's ethics scandal.
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« Reply #10 on: May 02, 2012, 12:17:57 pm »
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You don't get that much disparity between a presidential poll and senate poll in a state like this. The so-called scandal isn't even getting that much press.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #11 on: May 02, 2012, 12:19:51 pm »
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It is also the first poll I believe since Shelley's ethics scandal.

Uh, no.  This "scandal" came to light months ago.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #12 on: May 02, 2012, 12:24:54 pm »
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You don't get that much disparity between a presidential poll and senate poll in a state like this. The so-called scandal isn't even getting that much press.

Of course you do. In 2004 incumbent Senator Harry Reid got about 13% more than Presidential Challenger John Kerry.



Ethics investigations of course kicked off in late March.

http://articles.latimes.com/2012/mar/23/news/la-pn-nevada-rep-shelley-berkley-under-ethics-investigation-20120323
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« Reply #13 on: May 02, 2012, 02:46:47 pm »
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Harry Reid faced token opposition as an long time elected incumbent, this not an equal situation.

I'm not talking about late March, I'm talking about now and it's not top news right now. Rasmussen had Mack leading in Florida, then back tracked weeks later with in down more than a few points. Rasmussen is playing with numbers again.
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Miles
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« Reply #14 on: May 02, 2012, 02:50:42 pm »
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Harry Reid faced token opposition as an long time elected incumbent, this not an equal situation.


Exactly. Richard Ziser was a nut who ran on the sole issue of stopping gay marriage.

Reid was also somewhat popular back then.
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« Reply #15 on: May 02, 2012, 03:05:49 pm »
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We needexd an independent like Oscar Goodman to run for the seat, a more mainstream candidate, like Harry Reid.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #16 on: May 02, 2012, 03:10:01 pm »
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Harry Reid faced token opposition as an long time elected incumbent, this not an equal situation.

I'm not talking about late March, I'm talking about now and it's not top news right now. Rasmussen had Mack leading in Florida, then back tracked weeks later with in down more than a few points. Rasmussen is playing with numbers again.

Actually, the same exact poll had Obama up 8 points. Rasmussen is presenting the poll and you're making up excuses.

Of course, the 2004 situation is about as close as equal as one is likely to get. Dean Heller has been elected already by the people of Nevada.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #17 on: May 02, 2012, 03:13:38 pm »
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Harry Reid faced token opposition as an long time elected incumbent, this not an equal situation.


Exactly. Richard Ziser was a nut who ran on the sole issue of stopping gay marriage.

Reid was also somewhat popular back then.

You might be the first liberal to use the 'great poll!' and 'junk poll!' lines on the same poll at the same time.

In 2000 of course John Ensign won the vacant Nevada Senate seat by 15 points. Governor George W. Bush won by about 3.

Seems like you have a big problem with the history of the state.
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Svensson
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« Reply #18 on: May 02, 2012, 03:49:06 pm »
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Seems like you have a big problem with the history of the state.

Seems like you have a big problem with not acting like a todger in every debate you get into.
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« Reply #19 on: May 02, 2012, 04:31:33 pm »
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Actually, the same exact poll had Obama up 8 points. Rasmussen is presenting the poll and you're making up excuses.

Of course, the 2004 situation is about as close as equal as one is likely to get. Dean Heller has been elected already by the people of Nevada.

No excuses, just stating the facts that Rasmussen shows much better results for Republicans than other polls do.
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« Reply #20 on: May 02, 2012, 04:42:08 pm »
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Of course, the 2004 situation is about as close as equal as one is likely to get. Dean Heller has been elected already by the people of Nevada.

He's been elected (repeatedly) by about a third of the people of Nevada. Are you treating either them or perhaps Brian Sandoval as a synecdoche of the entire state?
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olawakandi
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« Reply #21 on: May 02, 2012, 04:50:18 pm »
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Uh, didn't this same Harry Reid win and beat the disgraced Ensign in 1998?
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #22 on: May 02, 2012, 04:58:37 pm »
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Of course, the 2004 situation is about as close as equal as one is likely to get. Dean Heller has been elected already by the people of Nevada.

He's been elected (repeatedly) by about a third of the people of Nevada. Are you treating either them or perhaps Brian Sandoval as a synecdoche of the entire state?

Well, Heller was elected SoS between 1994 and 2006. I thought you'd rather have me call you out on that than krazen! Wink
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #23 on: May 02, 2012, 05:56:41 pm »
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So Heller by 2 or 3 like the other polls.


Or is there something else going on here we should know about? Scandals?

There are no other polls.  PPP has only done one poll, and other than that, it's just one Rasmussen poll since the start of the year.
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #24 on: May 02, 2012, 05:57:47 pm »
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Database entry: http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2012/polls.php?fips=32&class=1
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