NEW 2012 FORUM FEATURE: "Who will hypothetical people vote for?" Omnibus Thread!

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

If he's active in the union, as you imply, lean Obama. Remember that Obama is also pro-death penalty and supports securing the borders (more immigrants deported and more boots on the border than ever).

Also, he works as a union member? That's not a job.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Union membership changes everything, however.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Austin: 39 years old, works as an engineer for a Silicon Valley-based corporation and makes a six-figure salary. Lives with a wife and three young children in an affluent San Jose suburb. Nominally Methodist, but only goes to church on Easter and Christmas.

Linda: 53 years old, lives in rural Ohio but travels due to her job as a truck driver. Is unionized. Divorced with two grown children. A practicing Catholic, but due to her job only attends church about once or twice a month. Is alcoholic and overweight due to diner food, and is beginning to question her sexuality late in life.

Daniel: 23 years old, currently an unemployed artist who lives with his parents in Morristown, New Jersey. He and his family are devoted evangelicals, and Daniel and some of his friends are putting together a local Christan Rock band. Abused drugs for a period of time, and has become even more faithful after rehab went relatively smoothly.

Karen: 40 years old, lives with her husband and two children in Bridgeport, Connecticut. She is a prosecuting attorney, while her husband is a stockbroker who commutes daily to New York and generally takes home several million dollars per year. Raised Episcopalian and believes in a God, but not currently a member of any church.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

The assumption is that they'd all vote, though Daniel especially isn't particularly likely to come out.

I'd say Austin & Linda for Obama, Daniel & Karen for Romney.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Of course, the middle two are less likely to vote.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Ryan: 53 years old, works in a shipyard in South Boston. Unionized, practicing Catholic, married with one grown child in college and one in high school. Recovering alcoholic, but has begun to have a beer again once in a while. Pro-life, undecided on same-sex marriage (used to strongly oppose it). Approved of Romney as governor and voted for him in 2002, but by  2006 somewhat disapproved of him.

Isaac: 68 years old, lives in Long Island and commutes to Wall Street. Jewish, multi-millionare investment banker. Divorced twice. Socially tolerant/liberal (has a gay son), but very hawkish and pro-Israel (but leans towards exiting Afghanistan in 2014). Fiscally moderate; opposes Dodd-Frank but supports reinstating Glass-Steagall, supports Social Security reform but also supports universal health care.

Allison: 38 years old, lives in Anaheim, California, works as a manager of a local Target. Half white and half Vietnamese; her father was a Vietnam veteran who brought a wife from South Vietnam. Speaks fluent English and Vietnamese. Married with two young children. Former Catholic, now a member of a Methodist church.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Isaac

Allison

I mostly agree with Ryan's analysis, but if it matters, Isaac is Jewish and Allison is Vietnamese (IIRC they're more Republican)

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Is that you or your father?

But tilt Obama if he does vote.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Hypothetical Voter:

Name: John Caceres (legally Juan Cáceres)
Age: 47
Race: White Hispanic
Sex: Male
Place of birth: Havana, Cuba
Place of residence: Maywood, New Jersey
Education: 4-year college graduate
Occupation: Engineer for AT&T
Personal income: $120,000/year
Family: Wife (45) is a homemaker, 2 children (16 & 17)
Household/family income: $120,000/year
Religion: Catholic (lapsed, basically agnostic)

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Hypothetical Voter:

Name: John Caceres (legally Juan Cáceres)
Age: 47
Race: White Hispanic
Sex: Male
Place of birth: Havana, Cuba
Place of residence: Maywood, New Jersey
Education: 4-year college graduate
Occupation: Engineer for AT&T
Personal income: $120,000/year
Family: Wife (45) is a homemaker, 2 children (16 & 17)
Household/family income: $120,000/year
Religion: Catholic (lapsed, basically agnostic)

Is this your dad?

Yes.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Hypothetical Voter:

Name: John Caceres (legally Juan Cáceres)
Age: 47
Race: White Hispanic
Sex: Male
Place of birth: Havana, Cuba
Place of residence: Maywood, New Jersey
Education: 4-year college graduate
Occupation: Engineer for AT&T
Personal income: $120,000/year
Family: Wife (45) is a homemaker, 2 children (16 & 17)
Household/family income: $120,000/year
Religion: Catholic (lapsed, basically agnostic)

Is this your dad?

Yes.

So were we right? Is he an Obama voter or a Romney voter? Or do you know?

Obama supporter. I assumed people would be thrown off by the Cuban part (which you didn't seem to notice)

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Hypothetical Voter:

Name: John Caceres (legally Juan Cáceres)
Age: 47
Race: White Hispanic
Sex: Male
Place of birth: Havana, Cuba
Place of residence: Maywood, New Jersey
Education: 4-year college graduate
Occupation: Engineer for AT&T
Personal income: $120,000/year
Family: Wife (45) is a homemaker, 2 children (16 & 17)
Household/family income: $120,000/year
Religion: Catholic (lapsed, basically agnostic)

Is this your dad?

Yes.

So were we right? Is he an Obama voter or a Romney voter? Or do you know?

Obama supporter. I assumed people would be thrown off by the Cuban part (which you didn't seem to notice)

I did catch it, but kind of forgot about it when I started the analysis. Cubans tend to lean more Republican than other Latino groups. Didn't change much in the end though. BTW, my dad-based hypothetical person above also plans to vote for Obama (though all exit poll signs point to him being a Romney supporter).

He's always also had a bit of an independent streak; his first vote was for Perot (though he voted for Gore, Kerry, and Obama after that).