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Author Topic: Democracy Corps (D): Obama/Romney tied  (Read 755 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: May 04, 2012, 05:45:57 am »
April 28 - May 1, 2012
1000 Likely Voters

Obama Approval: 45-50

Total Democrat Barack Obama ....................................... 47
Total Republican Mitt Romney ........................................ 47

Total Democrat Barack Obama ....................................... 45
Total Republican Mitt Romney ........................................ 43
Total Independent Buddy Roemer ................................... 7

http://www.democracycorps.com/wp-content/files/2012-May-1-DCorps-FQ_updated_WEB.pdf
« Last Edit: May 05, 2012, 11:07:50 pm by Tender Branson »Logged
IDS Legislator Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #1 on: May 04, 2012, 06:10:04 am »
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Democracy Corpse? That sounds like a weird name for a pollster.

Also, from what I've seen of him, Roemer actually seems closer to Obama than Romney, but he's taking more from Mittbot. Thoughts?
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Simfan34
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« Reply #2 on: May 04, 2012, 06:19:31 am »
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Is Roemer serious now?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #3 on: May 04, 2012, 06:49:12 am »
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Is this a polling outfit that believes democracy is dead, and they're poking the corpse?
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« Reply #4 on: May 04, 2012, 08:56:39 am »
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I believe Branson may be expressing his opinion that this is a junk poll.

It does seem to have a very strong likely voter screen, so no excessive reactions guys.
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Vasall des Midas
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« Reply #5 on: May 04, 2012, 01:33:05 pm »
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This is a poll of the graveyard vote. Both parties commit fraud to an even extent is what it's saying.
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Senator Clarence
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« Reply #6 on: May 04, 2012, 01:37:22 pm »
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Why poll Roemer and not Johnson?
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« Reply #7 on: May 04, 2012, 01:45:49 pm »
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47-47 nationally doesn't really correspond well with what we're seeing at the state level.  Either the state polls are wrong, or the race is something closer to Obama 50-Romney 47.
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« Reply #8 on: May 04, 2012, 10:14:33 pm »
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Quote from: The Mikado on May 04, 2012, 01:45:49 pm
47-47 nationally doesn't really correspond well with what we're seeing at the state level.  Either the state polls are wrong, or the race is something closer to Obama 50-Romney 47.

It's a "thing" that incumbents perform better in state polls relative to national polls pre-Labor Day.  I believe we saw the same thing in '04.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #9 on: May 04, 2012, 10:22:33 pm »
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Quote from: The Mikado on May 04, 2012, 01:45:49 pm
47-47 nationally doesn't really correspond well with what we're seeing at the state level.  Either the state polls are wrong, or the race is something closer to Obama 50-Romney 47.

If you take out Gallup and Rasmussen, then the average national lead for Obama over Romney is about 4 points, which is right in line with the state polls:

http://electionate.com/2012/05/02/its-not-the-electoral-college-obama-just-leads/

I think whatever discrepancy exists between the state and national polls can be explained by a combination of the timing of the polling and the different house effects of the polling firms polling nationally vs. statewide.
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Meeker
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« Reply #10 on: May 04, 2012, 10:32:31 pm »
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Quote from: Alfred F. Jones on May 04, 2012, 06:10:04 am
Democracy Corpse? That sounds like a weird name for a pollster.

Also, from what I've seen of him, Roemer actually seems closer to Obama than Romney, but he's taking more from Mittbot. Thoughts?

Roemer is splitting the anti-incumbent vote. Doesn't have anything to do with ideology.

Also the 7% has nothing to do with Roemer; pretty sure you could put anyone and they would get 7%.
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« Reply #11 on: May 05, 2012, 12:18:21 am »
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Why's Roemer on 7%?
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Diabolical Minds Think Alike
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« Reply #12 on: May 05, 2012, 05:54:55 pm »
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My reaction to Roemer polling 7%:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AzqiPvGrkTo
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NEY YO HOY MINOY NEYOYOYENOYMEMOY

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« Reply #13 on: May 06, 2012, 04:33:41 am »
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Democracy corps (lead by jame carville) is a very good pollster.

party id: D 37 R 31 I 29 (8 pure I)

JA: 45 %
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« Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm » 

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

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« Reply #14 on: May 06, 2012, 11:16:28 am »
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Quote from: We're Aware They're Trying To Take Away Our Dreams on May 05, 2012, 05:54:55 pm
My reaction to Roemer polling 7%:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AzqiPvGrkTo

Because third parties always overpoll. Nader did in 2000, 2004, and 2008. There were a few polls showing Buchanan in the 10% range in early 2000, but he ended up getting less than half of a percent on election day.
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oakvale
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« Reply #15 on: May 06, 2012, 12:03:05 pm »
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Oh Jesus, Umengus is back. Sad

Prepare for months of half-baked "analysis" of party ID numbers.
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Diabolical Minds Think Alike
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« Reply #16 on: May 06, 2012, 12:13:55 pm »
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Quote from: Oakvale on May 06, 2012, 12:03:05 pm
Oh Jesus, Umengus is back. Sad

Prepare for months of half-baked "analysis" of party ID numbers.

hahahaha
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NEY YO HOY MINOY NEYOYOYENOYMEMOY

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« Reply #17 on: May 06, 2012, 01:38:51 pm »
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Quote from: Stranger in a strange land on May 06, 2012, 11:16:28 am
Quote from: We're Aware They're Trying To Take Away Our Dreams on May 05, 2012, 05:54:55 pm
My reaction to Roemer polling 7%:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AzqiPvGrkTo

Because third parties always overpoll. Nader did in 2000, 2004, and 2008. There were a few polls showing Buchanan in the 10% range in early 2000, but he ended up getting less than half of a percent on election day.
Look how Barr turned out.
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