Presidential Election Predictions for your home state

[BushKenya]

Just looking at your home state, who do you think will win and what will be the MoV 6 months from now.

I have a hard time seeing Mitt Romney sweeping all 77 counties in Oklahoma.  I believe he will win decisively, of course, but I can Obama picking off 5-6 counties and possibly holding Romney to high 50's to near 60 here.  We don't like Obama, but we are not a fan of Romney, either.  Obama himself could muster between 38-41%.  I'm going to go with a 59-40% Romney Victory.

[Torie]

How many times do I get to vote?

[Senator Snowstalker]

56-43 Obama.

[NHI]

51%-47% Romney

[perdedor]

54-46 Romney

[Fuzzy]

57-41 Obama

[Inks.LWC Supports Chuck Hagel]

Obama 53% - Romney 45%

[CultureKing]

Hmm... I am going with Fuzzy's take: 57-41.
But here is my crazy prediction: Obama flips Spokane county

[cope1989]

Georgia 50-48 Romney

Gwinnett, Cobb and Henry counties flip

[fezzyfestoon]

I think Obama's margin in New Jersey relative to the national margin will decrease from 8.26% to just barely below 8%

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Let's assume Canada is quickly conquered and Ontario is admitted to the Union sometime before the election.

The ballot would probably include Mitt Romney (R), Barack Obama (D), and Thomas Mulcair (NDP). The current Conservative and Liberal Parties in Canada would be rendered pretty meaningless with R and D candidates on the ballot. Mulcair would emerge as the socialist option that many Ontarians would want.

Let's look at how Ontario voted in 2011.

Conservative: 45%
Liberal: 25%
NDP: 25%
Other: 5%

It's hard to know where these votes would go if the options were Romney, Obama, and Mulcair. Let's assume 25% of Ontario would stay NDP. I bet half the old Liberals would break NDP, only because the Dems are still certainly to the right of where the Liberals stood.

Mulcair: 38%

The other 12% of the Liberal vote would go to Obama. The Conservative Party would then divide itself between Romney and Obama.

Obama: 34%
Romney: 23%

The thing is, Obama can pull in a lot of stupid people based solely on his rhetoric and oratory skills. So I'd give some of Mulcair's numbers to Obama. Maybe we'd have a breakdown like this...

Obama: 38%
Mulcair: 31%
Romney: 26%
Other: 5%

[bgwah]

55-56% Obama

[Reaganfan]

49-49 either way.

[ModerateCoward]

Hmm... I am going with Fuzzy's take: 57-41.
But here is my crazy prediction: Obama flips Spokane county

That's not a crazy prediction. A crazy one would be Yakima or Franklin. At some point these 50% Hispanic counties should be voting D(obviously not 2012). I wonder how much closer they would be if Democrats put in an organization there if WA was a swing state.

[Secretary Polnut]

My adopted home state: IL Obama 59-40

[CultureKing]

Hmm... I am going with Fuzzy's take: 57-41.
But here is my crazy prediction: Obama flips Spokane county

That's not a crazy prediction. A crazy one would be Yakima or Franklin. At some point these 50% Hispanic counties should be voting D(obviously not 2012). I wonder how much closer they would be if Democrats put in an organization there if WA was a swing state.

True, but its about as 'crazy' as I am willing to get. Yakima and Franklin probably wont begin turning around for another 10-15 years or so; many of the Latinos living in those communities either are not registered to vote or cannot do so ('illegal' immigrants), when their kids grow up however republicans in the state could be in some serious trouble. Combining a pretty liberal white population on the west side with a sizable minority population (reaching majority status in some counties) will force a pretty large change on state politics, or at least on the state republican party.

Though then again the WA republican party has been pretty good lately at ignoring recent trends/realities.

[Senator Napoleon]

57-41 Obama, with Litchfield flipping.

[Kushahontas]

Texas - 54/44 Romney

[HockeyDude]

55-44 Obama

[5280/East California]

Colorado 50/49 Romney

[BaldEagle1991]

54/45 Romney

[NVGonzalez]

Obama 54
Romney 44

[BaldEagle1991]

Obama 54
Romney 44

I think Obama will win NV for sure, but by THAT MARGIN?!?!

[Joe Republic]

Obama 54
Romney 44

I think Obama will win NV for sure, but by THAT MARGIN?!?!

It's a smaller margin than 2008.

[BaldEagle1991]

Obama 54
Romney 44

I think Obama will win NV for sure, but by THAT MARGIN?!?!

It's a smaller margin than 2008.

Oh yeah I see.