Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 18, 2014, 03:09:33 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  2012 Elections (Moderators: Mr. Morden, Bacon King, Sheriff Buford TX Justice)
| | |-+  Presidential Election Predictions for your home state
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3 Print
Author Topic: Presidential Election Predictions for your home state  (Read 2246 times)
Easter Bushie
BushOklahoma
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20415
Kenya


View Profile
« on: May 01, 2012, 09:07:04 pm »
Ignore

Just looking at your home state, who do you think will win and what will be the MoV 6 months from now.

I have a hard time seeing Mitt Romney sweeping all 77 counties in Oklahoma.  I believe he will win decisively, of course, but I can Obama picking off 5-6 counties and possibly holding Romney to high 50's to near 60 here.  We don't like Obama, but we are not a fan of Romney, either.  Obama himself could muster between 38-41%.  I'm going to go with a 59-40% Romney Victory.
Logged

You are that rare species: a Bible-thumpin' Liberal.
Torie
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 26851
United States


View Profile
« Reply #1 on: May 01, 2012, 09:27:55 pm »
Ignore

How many times do I get to vote?
Logged

Snowstalker
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15440


Political Matrix
E: -8.39, S: -3.30

View Profile
« Reply #2 on: May 01, 2012, 09:29:32 pm »
Ignore

56-43 Obama.
Logged

NHI
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2871


P
View Profile
« Reply #3 on: May 01, 2012, 09:30:21 pm »
Ignore

51%-47% Romney
Logged

‎"Our president thinks this country's in decline. It is if he's president. It's not if I'm president." -- Mitt Romney

perdedor
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2628
United States


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: May 01, 2012, 11:24:35 pm »
Ignore

54-46 Romney
Logged

FBF
Fuzzybigfoot
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3944
United States


View Profile
« Reply #5 on: May 01, 2012, 11:26:30 pm »
Ignore

57-41 Obama
Logged
Assemblyman & Queen Mum Inks.LWC
Inks.LWC
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35187
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.61, S: 1.48

P P P

View Profile WWW
« Reply #6 on: May 01, 2012, 11:32:50 pm »
Ignore

Obama 53% - Romney 45%
Logged
CultureKing
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3218
United States


View Profile
« Reply #7 on: May 01, 2012, 11:35:10 pm »
Ignore

Hmm... I am going with Fuzzy's take: 57-41.
But here is my crazy prediction: Obama flips Spokane county
Logged

Econ: -6.50, Social: -5.23
old timey villain
cope1989
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1701


View Profile
« Reply #8 on: May 01, 2012, 11:56:30 pm »
Ignore

Georgia 50-48 Romney

Gwinnett, Cobb and Henry counties flip
Logged

Can't we all just get along?
fezzyfestoon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8301
United States


View Profile
« Reply #9 on: May 02, 2012, 12:04:18 am »
Ignore

I think Obama's margin in New Jersey relative to the national margin will decrease from 8.26% to just barely below 8%
Logged
HagridOfTheDeep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4455
Canada


Political Matrix
E: 3.35, S: 0.52

View Profile
« Reply #10 on: May 02, 2012, 12:16:37 am »
Ignore

Let's assume Canada is quickly conquered and Ontario is admitted to the Union sometime before the election.

The ballot would probably include Mitt Romney (R), Barack Obama (D), and Thomas Mulcair (NDP). The current Conservative and Liberal Parties in Canada would be rendered pretty meaningless with R and D candidates on the ballot. Mulcair would emerge as the socialist option that many Ontarians would want.

Let's look at how Ontario voted in 2011.

Conservative: 45%
Liberal: 25%
NDP: 25%
Other: 5%

It's hard to know where these votes would go if the options were Romney, Obama, and Mulcair. Let's assume 25% of Ontario would stay NDP. I bet half the old Liberals would break NDP, only because the Dems are still certainly to the right of where the Liberals stood.

Mulcair: 38%

The other 12% of the Liberal vote would go to Obama. The Conservative Party would then divide itself between Romney and Obama.

Obama: 34%
Romney: 23%

The thing is, Obama can pull in a lot of stupid people based solely on his rhetoric and oratory skills. So I'd give some of Mulcair's numbers to Obama. Maybe we'd have a breakdown like this...

Obama: 38%
Mulcair: 31%
Romney: 26%
Other: 5%
Logged

bgwah
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13659
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: -6.96

View Profile
« Reply #11 on: May 02, 2012, 12:31:39 am »
Ignore

55-56% Obama
Logged

Reaganfan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12174
United States


View Profile
« Reply #12 on: May 02, 2012, 01:11:03 am »
Ignore

49-49 either way.
Logged

LastVoter
seatown
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4469
Thailand


View Profile
« Reply #13 on: May 02, 2012, 01:25:00 am »
Ignore

Hmm... I am going with Fuzzy's take: 57-41.
But here is my crazy prediction: Obama flips Spokane county
That's not a crazy prediction. A crazy one would be Yakima or Franklin. At some point these 50% Hispanic counties should be voting D(obviously not 2012). I wonder how much closer they would be if Democrats put in an organization there if WA was a swing state.
Logged
Fmr. President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12512
Australia


View Profile
« Reply #14 on: May 02, 2012, 01:30:42 am »
Ignore

My adopted home state: IL Obama 59-40
Logged


Dogma is a comfortable thing, it saves you from thought - Sir Robert Menzies
CultureKing
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3218
United States


View Profile
« Reply #15 on: May 02, 2012, 01:47:35 am »
Ignore

Hmm... I am going with Fuzzy's take: 57-41.
But here is my crazy prediction: Obama flips Spokane county
That's not a crazy prediction. A crazy one would be Yakima or Franklin. At some point these 50% Hispanic counties should be voting D(obviously not 2012). I wonder how much closer they would be if Democrats put in an organization there if WA was a swing state.

True, but its about as 'crazy' as I am willing to get. Yakima and Franklin probably wont begin turning around for another 10-15 years or so; many of the Latinos living in those communities either are not registered to vote or cannot do so ('illegal' immigrants), when their kids grow up however republicans in the state could be in some serious trouble. Combining a pretty liberal white population on the west side with a sizable minority population (reaching majority status in some counties) will force a pretty large change on state politics, or at least on the state republican party.

Though then again the WA republican party has been pretty good lately at ignoring recent trends/realities.
Logged

Econ: -6.50, Social: -5.23
Napoleon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14705


View Profile
« Reply #16 on: May 02, 2012, 06:09:40 am »
Ignore

57-41 Obama, with Litchfield flipping.
Logged

Please Senators, don't let the Russians, a folk of alcoholic homophobic, take Crimee
Kushahontas
floating_to_sea
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 935
United States


View Profile
« Reply #17 on: May 02, 2012, 08:57:47 am »
Ignore

Texas - 54/44 Romney
Logged
HockeyDude
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5973
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.03, S: -8.26

View Profile
« Reply #18 on: May 02, 2012, 11:20:54 am »
Ignore

55-44 Obama
Logged


If it comes to that, yes, but there is no reason to be that pessimistic.
5280
MagneticFree
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2659
United States


View Profile
« Reply #19 on: May 02, 2012, 11:32:55 am »
Ignore

Colorado 50/49 Romney
Logged

Paul/Cruz 2016!
BaldEagle1991
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1077
United States


View Profile
« Reply #20 on: May 02, 2012, 01:02:58 pm »
Ignore

54/45 Romney
Logged

"Weezy F Baby and the F is for Phenomenal" - Lil' Wayne

"Look at this photograph/Every time I do it makes me laugh/How did our eyes get so red?/And what the hell is on Joey's head?" - Nickelback
NVGonzalez
antwnzrr
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1753
Mexico


View Profile
« Reply #21 on: May 02, 2012, 01:20:03 pm »
Ignore

Obama 54
Romney 44
Logged




Bernie would probably win Vermont if Obama were deemed to have more than 272 evs in the vag.
BaldEagle1991
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1077
United States


View Profile
« Reply #22 on: May 02, 2012, 01:21:53 pm »
Ignore

Obama 54
Romney 44

I think Obama will win NV for sure, but by THAT MARGIN?!?!
Logged

"Weezy F Baby and the F is for Phenomenal" - Lil' Wayne

"Look at this photograph/Every time I do it makes me laugh/How did our eyes get so red?/And what the hell is on Joey's head?" - Nickelback
Joe Republic
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29562
United States


View Profile
« Reply #23 on: May 02, 2012, 01:28:59 pm »
Ignore

Obama 54
Romney 44

I think Obama will win NV for sure, but by THAT MARGIN?!?!

It's a smaller margin than 2008.
Logged
BaldEagle1991
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1077
United States


View Profile
« Reply #24 on: May 02, 2012, 01:33:08 pm »
Ignore

Obama 54
Romney 44

I think Obama will win NV for sure, but by THAT MARGIN?!?!

It's a smaller margin than 2008.

Oh yeah I see.
Logged

"Weezy F Baby and the F is for Phenomenal" - Lil' Wayne

"Look at this photograph/Every time I do it makes me laugh/How did our eyes get so red?/And what the hell is on Joey's head?" - Nickelback
Pages: [1] 2 3 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines