Presidential Election Predictions for your home state

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Let's assume Canada is quickly conquered and Ontario is admitted to the Union sometime before the election.

The ballot would probably include Mitt Romney (R), Barack Obama (D), and Thomas Mulcair (NDP). The current Conservative and Liberal Parties in Canada would be rendered pretty meaningless with R and D candidates on the ballot. Mulcair would emerge as the socialist option that many Ontarians would want.

Let's look at how Ontario voted in 2011.

Conservative: 45%
Liberal: 25%
NDP: 25%
Other: 5%

It's hard to know where these votes would go if the options were Romney, Obama, and Mulcair. Let's assume 25% of Ontario would stay NDP. I bet half the old Liberals would break NDP, only because the Dems are still certainly to the right of where the Liberals stood.

Mulcair: 38%

The other 12% of the Liberal vote would go to Obama. The Conservative Party would then divide itself between Romney and Obama.

Obama: 34%
Romney: 23%

The thing is, Obama can pull in a lot of stupid people based solely on his rhetoric and oratory skills. So I'd give some of Mulcair's numbers to Obama. Maybe we'd have a breakdown like this...

Obama: 38%
Mulcair: 31%
Romney: 26%
Other: 5%